Английская Википедия:2023–2025 world oil market chronology

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In 2023, the first two quarters saw declines, though concerns over U.S. interest rates have kept oil from rising as much as it could have. Oil then rose for seven straight weeks to a nine-month high and then rose and fell before seven weeks of declines.

2023

Both Brent and WTI started the year down more than 8 percent, the most for a first week since 2016. Brent finished at $78.57 and WTI at $73.77, after gaining 13 percent in the previous three weeks. U.S. jobs news indicated the economy was slowing, meaning less chance of another large interest rate increase, and the dollar jumped. The price of Saudi light crude sold to Asia fell to the lowest since November 2021. Oil rose for the next two weeks, with Brent ending at $87.63 and WTI at $81.31, with loosening of restrictions in China a big reason, along with expectation of smaller interest rate increases. A lower oil rig count and the Russian cap also contributed, though U.S. crude inventories were the highest since June 2021. For the week ending February 3, oil fell nearly 8 percent, with Brent at one point reaching $79.72, lowest since January 11, and WTI reaching $73.13, lowest since January 5. Both fell about 3 percent on February 3 with positive U.S. jobs news causing concerns about interest rate increases, even though the Federal Reserve raised rates less than it had been. The next week oil rose over 8 percent, with Brent finishing at $86.39 and WTI at $79.72, as Russia announced production cuts. The European Union's cap and its ban on Russian oil were believed to have had influence, but gains were limited by low Chinese demand, increased U.S. unemployment claims and high inventories. Positive U.S. economic news, higher U.S stockpiles and lower stock prices helped oil fall for a second week, with Brent hitting $84.18 and WTI at $77.52. In spite of higher U.S. inventories, because of Russia's plans to decrease output, WTI climbed 2 percent to $75.39 on February 23 after falling for 6 straight days. Brent finished at $82.21, also up 2 percent. At the end of February, U.S. crude exports reached a record due to the growing gap between WTI and Brent.

In the first full week of March, oil fell 3 percent due to concerns about U.S. and European interest rates, though not as much as it could have due to good U.S. economic news, with Brent finishing at $82.68 and WTI at $76.68. The next week, as a result of the March 2023 United States bank failures, Brent fell almost 12 percent to $72.97 a barrel, the most since December, and WTI fell 13 percent to $66.74, the most in a year. Declines continued until both indexes reached their lowest point since 2021. The first quarter ended with the second week of gains, with lower supplies in some areas and U.S. inflation decreasing. Brent finished with the more actively traded futures at $79.89 down 5 percent for the month and WTI was up 9 percent for the week, but down 2 percent for the month, to $75.67.

OPEC and others planned to decrease production, which caused prices to jump 6 percent April 3, but on April 5 there was little change with Brent finishing at $84.69 and WTI at $80.61 in spite of falling U.S. inventories, as U.S. job openings reached the lowest level in almost two years. The week ending April 14 marked the fourth week of increases with Brent finishing up 1.5 percent for the week at $86.36 and WTI up 2.5 percent to $82.52. Factors included, unexpected production cuts by OPEC and others along with an International Energy Agency forecast of higher demand, as well as less concern about U.S. banks and a lower U.S. rig count. Despite good economic news from Europe, Brent finished down 5 percent at $81.80 and WTI fell 6 percent to $78.55, with interest rate fears and higher U.S. unemployment claims as major factors. At the end of the fourth straight down month and the second week of declines, Brent finished at $80.33, while WTI finished up for the month for the first time in six months at $76.78. Recession fears and concern over banks outweighed the lowest U.S. crude production since November and the highest demand for fuel since December.

The first week of May was the third down week, which had not happened since November, due to concerns about U.S. banks and another interest rate increase. Brent finished at $75.30 and WTI, after reaching levels not seen since 2021, rebounded to $71.34. Oil fell again the next week, with Brent finishing at $74.17 and WTI at $70.04, with a strong dollar and concerns about the U.S. debt ceiling as major factors, plus fears of a recession and its effect on demand. The next two weeks, oil went up, with Brent finishing May 26 at $76.95 and WTI at $72.67, with the possibility of a solution to the U.S. debt crisis cancelling out concern that OPEC and others would not continue production cuts. Slow growth in Europe and the possibility of the European Central Bank raising interest rates limited gains.

On June 1, with the U.S. debt ceiling deal passed by the House, WTI went up the most in one day in nearly a month to finish at $70.10, and Brent rose to $74.65 after its biggest gain in two weeks. This cancelled out the effect of rising U.S. inventories. The first full week of June ended with the second week of lower prices, with Brent finishing at $74.79 and WTI at $70.17. Increases caused by plans by Saudi Arabia, OPEC and other nations to decrease output were cancelled out by several factors. The announcement of a likely nuclear deal with Iran, which was not confirmed, but if it happened would increase supply. U.S. stocks rose, and negative economic news from China added to losses. The next week prices went up due to high demand in China and cuts by OPEC and others, cancelling out concerns over the world economy and interest rate increases in England and Europe. Brent finished at $76.61 and WTI at $71.78. On June 22 oil fell 4 percent due to a large Bank of England rate hike after oil went up with high crop prices suggesting lower biofuel demand leading to higher oil demand. Brent finished the day at $74.14 and WTI was $69.51. Because of negative economic news worldwide and the prospect of lower demand, oil finished down for the fourth straight quarter, with Brent ending second quarter 2023 at $74.90, down 6 percent, and WTI at $70.64, down 6.5 percent. Higher demand, lower inflation and less chance of interest rates increasing in the U.S., along with production cuts planned by OPEC and others, helped oil finish slightly higher.

For the first week of July, oil rose 5 percent, with Brent finishing at $78.47, highest since May 1, and WTI at $73.86, highest since May 24. Saudi Arabia and Russia announced cuts, the U.S. dollar fell, and the U.S. jobs report was not as positive as expected. These factors outweighed continued concerns over interest rates. The next week, with supply problems in Libya and Nigeria, oil rose for the third week in a row even though a stronger dollar caused a decline on July 14. Brent finished at $79.87 and WTI at $75.42. WTI increased 2 percent for the week the next week for its fourth gain, ending at $77.07, the highest since April 25, while Brent finished at $81.07. Reasons included lower supplies and the chance of more problems in the Russo-Ukrainian War. With the expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank were nearly finished raising interest rates, and supply cuts from OPEC and others, oil rose for the fifth week, up almost 5 percent, and close to 13 percent for the month. Brent finished at $84.99 and WTI at $80.58. Good economic news from the U.S. also contributed. Brent finished July at $85.43 and WTI at $81.80, both the highest since April for the third day, and the biggest increase for a month since January 2022, with expectations of lower supply and higher demand.

After six weeks of gains, WTI was up 20 percent to $82.82 on August 4, and Brent finished at $86.24, up 17 percent. Saudi Arabia agreed to continue production cuts, while Russia was reducing exports, while demand was expected to increase. The seventh up week marked the longest streak since 2022. Brent finished at $86.81 and WTI at $83.19, with the International Energy Agency reporting record demand for June and OPEC forecasting higher demand for the rest of the year along with the production cuts. After two weeks of declines, continuation of production cuts by Saudi Arabia and lower exports by Russia led to oil reaching its highest level in over six months. Brent finished on September 1 up 4.8 percent for the week, the most since July, at $88.49. WTI finished the week up 7.2 percent, the most since March, at $85.02.

Oil finished the first full week of September at a nine-month high. Brent ended September 8 at $90.65, highest since November, with WTI at $87.51. WTI reached $95.03, highest since August 2022, and Brent peaked at $97.69, highest since August 2022, due to low supplies, before falling due to profit taking on September 28.

During the first full week of October, both WTI and Brent fell by the largest percentage for a two-day period since May, with the decline on the first of those days the most in more than a year. WTI ended October 5 at $82.31 and Brent at $84.07. Continuation of production cuts failed to overcome investor perception that a time of high demand was ending. U.S. gasoline demand was down and finished motor gasoline supplied was at its lowest point of 2023. Another concern was high interest rates, and positive U.S. economic news raised the possibility of another U.S. interest rate increase. The week ended with the largest decline since March, with Brent down 11 percent and WTI down more than 8 percent. The next week Brent was up 7.5 percent, the most for a week since February, finishing at $90.89, while WTI ended at $87.69. Both gained the most for a day since April on October 13, with both climbing nearly 6 percent after fears the 2023 Israel–Hamas war could worsen and sanctions on some tankers carrying oil from Russia. Oil climbed again the next week but fell after Hamas released hostages. Brent finished at $92.89 and WTI at $88.75. Brent fell 2 percent and WTI 4 percent the next week, with the premium for Brent the highest since March. After rising nearly 3 percent on October 27 due to U.S. attacks on Syria, Brent finished at $90.48 and WTI at $85.54. The first full week of November was the third down week, the first time this happened since May, with Brent finishing at $81.43 and WTI at $77.17. Lower demand was expected due to negative economic news from China, the UK and the US. The day after oil fell nearly 5 percent to a four-month low, the fourth down week finished with Brent at $80.61 and WTI at $75.89 as a result of continued bad news from China, high U.S. inventories and record production, with sanctions on Russian oil shipments causing prices to increase.

OPEC and others agreed to production cuts on November 30 but traders doubted these would actually happen. Negative economic news in the U.S. and worldwide contributed to another down week. The first full week of December was the seventh week of declines, the longest streak since 2018, with Brent finishing at $75.18 and WTI at $71.23. Both dropped nearly 4 percent for the week and reaching their lowest point since June on December 7, the sixth straight decline. Traders believed supply was too high and Chinese imports fell due to high inventories and negative economic news. Despite a fall in prices due to negative economic news leading to expectations of lower demand, oil rose the next week for the first time in two months, with Brent finishing at $76.55 and WTI at $71.43. Also contributing to lower prices was a prediction of lower interest rates. Good U.S. economic news and Houthi attacks on ships helped oil increase for a second week, with Brent finishing at $79.07 and WTI at $73.56.

See also

• 2011–2013 world oil market chronology
• 2014–2016 world oil market chronology
• 2017–2019 world oil market chronology
• 2020–2022 world oil market chronology
• 2021–2023 global energy crisis

External links

• U.S. DOE EIA energy chronology and analysis
• Oil Price History and Analysis