Английская Википедия:2023–24 Australian region cyclone season

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use dmy dates Шаблон:Infobox hurricane season The 2023–24 Australian region cyclone season is the current tropical cyclone season in the Southern Hemisphere, in the Australian Region, that lies between 90° E and 160° E. The season officially started on 1 November 2023 and will end on 30 April 2024, however, a tropical cyclone could form at any time between 1 July 2023 and 30 June 2024 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored by one of the three tropical cyclone warning centres (TCWCs) for the region which are operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France and the Fiji Meteorological Service will also monitor the basin during the season.

Season forecasts

Source/Record Tropical
Cyclone 		Severe
Tropical Cyclone 		Ref
Record high: 21 12 Шаблон:BoM TC Database
Record low: 3 0 [1]
Average (1969–70 – 2023–24): 11 Шаблон:N/A [2]
Region Chance
of less 		Average
number 		Ref
Whole (90°E–160°E) 80% 11 [2]
Western (90°E–125°E) 72% 7 [2]
North-Western (105°E–130°E) 75% 5 [2]
Northern (125°E–142.5°E) 61% 3 [2]
Eastern (142.5°E–160°E) 76% 4 [2]
Western South Pacific (142.5°E—165°E) 68% 4 [3]
Eastern South Pacific (165°E—120°W) 40% 6 [3]

Ahead of the season officially starting on 1 November, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) both issued a tropical cyclone outlook that discussed the upcoming season.[2][4] These outlooks took into account a variety of factors such as a developing El Nino event and what had happened in previous seasons such as 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, 2009-10 and 2015-16.[2][4] Within their seasonal outlook for the Australian region, the BoM suggested that there was an 80% chance, that the whole region between 90°E – 160°E, would be below its long term average of 11 tropical cyclones.[2] They also suggested that each of their self-defined Western, Northern, North-western and Eastern regions would see a below-average amount of tropical cyclone activity.[2]

The BoM also issued a seasonal forecast that discussed tropical cyclone activity over the South Pacific Ocean for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean.[3] Within this forecast, they predicted that their western region between 142.5°E and 165°E would have a below average amount of activity, while their eastern region between 165°E and 120°W had a 60% chance of seeing activity above its average of 6 tropical cyclones.[3] Along with other Pacific Meteorological Services, the BoM contributed to NIWA's Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook, which predicted that nine and fourteen tropical cyclones would occur between 135°E and 120°W.[4] At least four to eight of these systems were expected to intensify further and become either a Category 3, 4 or 5 severe tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale.[2]

Season summary

Шаблон:Center

Early activity

The season officially started on November 1, however the first system, Cyclone Jasper would not be active until more than a month later, when it crossed into the basin as a tropical low from the South Pacific. The low would become a named storm on December 5, receiving the name Jasper,[5] and would intensify into the season's first severe tropical cyclone the next day.[6] Jasper would later make landfall in Far North Queensland as a Category 2 tropical cyclone on December 13.[7]

Systems

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper

Шаблон:Infobox hurricane small Шаблон:Main article On 2 December, the BoM reported that Tropical Disturbance 03F, which was re-designated as Tropical Low 02U, had formed in the South Pacific Ocean in Fiji's area of responsibility.[8] Two days later, on 00:00 UTC of 4 December, the system would enter the Australian area of responsibility.[9][10] The JTWC issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) later that day, projecting a high likelihood of a significant tropical cyclone developing.[11] Later the next day, the JTWC subsequently initiated advisories on the system and classified it as Tropical Cyclone 03P.[12] The BoM subsequently followed suit and upgraded it to a Category 1 tropical cyclone, naming it Jasper.[5] Jasper started to track southward under the steering influence of a near equatorial ridge to the east.[13] During the next day, the cyclone's center continued to organize, with deep convective bands starting to wrap around the center, prompting the JTWC to upgrade the system to a Category 1-equivalent cyclone.[14]

The BoM assessed Jasper as it rapidly intensified into a Category 2 cyclone. That same day, Jasper intensified into a Category 3,[6] due to being in an environment with warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear.[15] Convective banding blossomed around the storm, and a formative eye appeared on satellite imagery.[16] The next day, it would further intensify, becoming a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone.[17] Shortly thereafter, Jasper began weakening, with its eye becoming cloud-filled and the deep convection eroding due to dry air entrainment.[18] Jasper would reintensify, and on 7:00 UTC on December 13, made landfall as a Category 2 tropical cyclone in Wujal Wujal, Queensland.[7] After making landfall, the JTWC would discontinue warnings on the system later that day.[19] By 14:00 UTC that day, the BoM reported that Jasper had weakened to a tropical low, before it was last noted on 21 December.[20] One man died due to flooding caused by Jasper in Far North Queensland.[21][22][23]

Storm names

Bureau of Meteorology

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (TCWC Melbourne) monitors all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, including any within the areas of responsibility of TCWC Jakarta or TCWC Port Moresby.[24] Should a tropical low reach tropical cyclone strength within the BoM's area of responsibility, it will be assigned the next name from the following naming list. The names that will be used for the 2023–24 season are listed below:

TCWC Jakarta

TCWC Jakarta monitors all tropical cyclones active from the Equator to 11S and from 90E to 145E. Should a tropical depression intensify into a tropical cyclone within TCWC Jakarta's Area of Responsibility, it will be assigned the next name from the following list.Шаблон:RA V Tropical cyclone operational plan

TCWC Port Moresby

Tropical cyclones that develop north of 11°S between 151°E and 160°E are assigned names by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Tropical cyclone formation in this area is rare, with no cyclones being named in it since 2007.[25] As names are assigned in a random order, the whole list is shown below:

Season effects

This table lists all of the tropical cyclones and subtropical cyclones that were monitored during the 2023–2024 Australian region cyclone season. Information on their intensity, duration, name, areas affected, primarily comes from TCWC Melbourne. Death and damage reports come from either press reports or the relevant national disaster management agency while the damage totals are given in 2023 or 2024 USD. Шаблон:Australian cyclone season effects (top) Шаблон:Australian cyclone season effects (cyclone) Шаблон:Australian cyclone season effects (bottom)

See also

Шаблон:Portal

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Шаблон:Commons category

Шаблон:2023–24 Australian region cyclone season buttons Шаблон:TC Decades Шаблон:Tropical cyclone season

Партнерские ресурсы
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Магазины
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Разное

  1. ↑ Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег <ref>; для сносок BoM TC Database не указан текст
  2. ↑ 2,00 2,01 2,02 2,03 2,04 2,05 2,06 2,07 2,08 2,09 2,10 Шаблон:Cite report
  3. ↑ 3,0 3,1 3,2 3,3 Шаблон:Cite report
  4. ↑ 4,0 4,1 4,2 Шаблон:Cite report
  5. ↑ 5,0 5,1 Шаблон:Cite report
  6. ↑ 6,0 6,1 Шаблон:Cite report
  7. ↑ 7,0 7,1 "Cyclone Jasper makes landfall in Australia". AFP. 13 December 2023.
  8. ↑ Шаблон:Cite report
  9. ↑ Шаблон:Cite report
  10. ↑ Шаблон:Cite report
  11. ↑ Шаблон:Cite JTWC
  12. ↑ Шаблон:Cite JTWC
  13. ↑ Шаблон:Cite report
  14. ↑ Шаблон:Cite JTWC
  15. ↑ Шаблон:Cite report
  16. ↑ Шаблон:Cite JTWC
  17. ↑ Шаблон:Cite report
  18. ↑ Шаблон:Cite JTWC
  19. ↑ Шаблон:Cite JTWC
  20. ↑ Шаблон:Cite report
  21. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  22. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  23. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  24. ↑ Ошибка цитирования Неверный тег <ref>; для сносок SPAC TCOP не указан текст
  25. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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