Английская Википедия:2023 Dutch general election

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use dmy dates Шаблон:Infobox legislative election

Early general elections were held in the Netherlands on 22 November 2023 to elect the members of the House of Representatives.[1][2] The elections had been expected to be held in 2025 but a snap election was called after the fourth Rutte cabinet collapsed on 7 July 2023 due to immigration policy disagreements between the coalition parties.[3] The incumbent prime minister Mark Rutte announced that he would not lead his party into the election and that he would retire from politics.[4]

In what was described as "one of the biggest political upsets in Dutch politics since World War II",[5] the right-wing populist Party for Freedom (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, won 37 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, becoming the largest party for the first time.[5][6][7] All four parties of the incumbent coalition government suffered losses.[8]

After the election, a cabinet formation started to determine which parties will form the coalition government.

Background

The 2021 Dutch general election resulted in the formation of the fourth Rutte cabinet, consisting of a coalition of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Democrats 66 (D66), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and the Christian Union (CU). Mark Rutte, leader of VVD, continued in his role as prime minister.[9]

Since 2019, the government has had the intention to limit the human impact on the nitrogen cycle. Its nitrogen bill has met resistance from several opposition parties including the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), which was founded in 2019 and entered the House of Representatives with one seat in 2021. The 2023 Dutch provincial elections, which were won by the BBB, led to heavy losses for the ruling coalition. Since the provincial councils indirectly elect the Dutch Senate,[10] it meant that the ruling coalition had to face more difficulty passing legislation.[11]

The government resigned on 7 July 2023 after the four parties failed to agree on a proposed limitation of family reunification for refugees fleeing armed conflict.[3][12] The coalition government led by Mark Rutte collapsed ahead of the anticipated November elections due to irreconcilable disagreements on migration issues.[13] The dispute arose from Rutte's proposal to tighten restrictions on the reunification of asylum seekers' families, aiming to reduce the number of migrants following a previous scandal involving overcrowded migration centers. CDA supported Rutte's proposal, while the opposition of CU and D66 led to a breakdown in negotiations. The parties decided unanimously that they could not remain together in the coalition.[14][15][16][17] The king asked that the prime minister and his government continue to carry out their duties in a caretaker capacity.[18] This could have been seen as a move by Rutte to keep migration on the center stage as his party was disunited on his nitrogen policies.[19]

Leadership changes

On 10 July 2023 Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced he would not run again as lead candidate for the VVD, and leave politics when a new cabinet would be sworn in. Other party leaders and parliamentary leaders also announced they would not return, including Sigrid Kaag (D66), Wopke Hoekstra, Pieter Heerma (both CDA),[20] Attje Kuiken (PvdA),[21] Kees van der Staaij (SGP),[22] Farid Azarkan (DENK),[23] Liane den Haan (independent),[24] Nilüfer Gündoğan (independent),[25] and Sylvana Simons (BIJ1).[26] Jesse Klaver announced that, although he wanted to continue as member of parliament, he would not be candidate for leader of the Labour Party–GroenLinks alliance. Additionally, Vera Bergkamp, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, did not stand for reelection.[27]

Electoral system

Шаблон:Main

Файл:Tweede Kamerverkiezingen 2023 in Delft (009).jpg
Ballot of the 2023 Dutch general election

Pursuant to articles C.1, C.2 and C.3 of the electoral law, elections for the House of Representatives take place every four years in March, unless a snap election is called. The 150 members of the House of Representatives are elected by open list proportional representation. The number of seats per list is determined using the D'Hondt method. A list must receive a number of votes equal to or exceeding the Hare quota (1 full seat) in order to qualify for seat distribution, meaning there is an electoral threshold of 0.67%.[28] Voters have the option to cast a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25% of the Hare quota (effectively 1/4 of a seat or 0.17% of the total votes), regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their position on the electoral list.[29][30]

Political parties and lead candidates

The following parties participated in the election and were on the ballot:

List Party Main ideology Lead candidate 2021 result Districts Шаблон:Abbr
1 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | People's Party for Freedom and Democracy Шаблон:Abbr Conservative liberalism Шаблон:Sortname 21.87% (34 seats) 20 [31]
2 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | Democrats 66 Шаблон:Abbr Social liberalism Шаблон:Sortname 15.02% (24 seats) 20 [32]
3 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Abbr Social democracy, green politics Шаблон:Sortname 10.88% (17 seats)Шаблон:Efn 20 [33][34]
4 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | Party for Freedom Шаблон:Abbr Nationalism, right-wing populism Шаблон:Sortname 10.79% (17 seats) 20 [35]
5 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | Christian Democratic Appeal Шаблон:Abbr Christian democracy Шаблон:Sortname 9.50% (15 seats) 20 [36][37]
6 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | Socialist Party Шаблон:Abbr Democratic socialism, left-wing populism Шаблон:Sortname 5.98% (9 seats) 20 [38]
7 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | Forum for Democracy Шаблон:Abbr National conservatism, right-wing populism Шаблон:Sortname 5.02% (8 seats) 20 [39]
8 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | Party for the Animals Шаблон:Abbr Environmentalism, Animal rights advocacy Esther Ouwehand 3.84% (6 seats) 20 [40]
9 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | Christian Union Шаблон:Abbr Christian democracy Mirjam Bikker 3.37% (5 seats) 20 [41]
10 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | Volt Netherlands Шаблон:Abbr Eurofederalism Шаблон:Sortname 2.42% (3 seats) 20 [42][43]
11 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | JA21 Шаблон:Abbr Conservative liberalism, right-wing populism Шаблон:Sortname 2.37% (3 seats) 20 [44]
12 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | Reformed Political Party Шаблон:Abbr Christian right Шаблон:Sortname 2.07% (3 seats) 20 [45]
13 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | DENK Шаблон:Abbr Minority interests Шаблон:Sortname 2.03% (3 seats) 20 [46]
14 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | 50PLUS Шаблон:Abbr Pensioners' interests Шаблон:Sortname 1.02% (1 seat) 20 [47]
15 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | Farmer–Citizen Movement Шаблон:Abbr Agrarianism Шаблон:Sortname 1.00% (1 seat) 20 [48]
16 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | BIJ1 Шаблон:Abbr Anti-racism Шаблон:Sortname 0.84% (1 seat) 20 [49][50]
17 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | Шаблон:Collapsible list Шаблон:Abbr Pirate politics, green politics Шаблон:Sortname 0.22% (0 seats)Шаблон:Efn 20 [51][52]
18 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | Interest of the Netherlands Шаблон:Abbr Right-wing populism, conservative liberalism Шаблон:Sortname — 20 [53]
19 New Social Contract Шаблон:Abbr Christian democracy Шаблон:Sortname — 20 [54]
20 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | Splinter Шаблон:Abbr Anti-identity politics Шаблон:Sortname 0.29% (0 seats) 20 [55]
21 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | Libertarian Party Шаблон:Abbr Libertarianism Шаблон:Sortname 0.05% (0 seats) 19 [56]
22 LEF – For the New Generation Шаблон:Abbr Youth politics Шаблон:Sortname — 19 [57]
23 Together for the Netherlands Шаблон:Abbr Right-wing populism Шаблон:Sortname — 19 [58][59]
24 Netherlands with a Plan Шаблон:Abbr Participatory democracy Шаблон:Sortname — 17 [60]
25 Party for Sports Шаблон:Abbr Health promotion Шаблон:Sortname — 11 [61]
26 style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" | Political Party for Basic Income Шаблон:Abbr Universal basic income advocacy Шаблон:Sortname — 8 [62]

Campaign

Debates

Dutch general election debates, 2023
Date Organisers Channel Venue Шаблон:Colors Present  Шаблон:Colors Invited  Шаблон:Colors Not invited  Шаблон:Colors Absent   Шаблон:Abbr
!Шаблон:Vert header !Шаблон:Vert header !Шаблон:Vert header !Шаблон:Vert header !Шаблон:Vert header !Шаблон:Vert header !Шаблон:Vert header !Шаблон:Vert header !Шаблон:Vert header !Шаблон:Vert header !Шаблон:Vert header !Шаблон:Vert header !Шаблон:Vert header !Шаблон:Vert header !Шаблон:Vert header !Шаблон:Vert header !Шаблон:Vert header
style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" width="30px;" | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" width="30px;" | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" width="30px;" | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" width="30px;" | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" width="30px;" | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" width="30px;" | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" width="30px;" | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" width="30px;" | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" width="30px;" | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" width="30px;" | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" width="30px;" | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" width="30px;" | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" width="30px;" | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" width="30px;" | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" width="30px;" | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" width="30px;" | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" width="30px;" |
22 October College Tour NPO 3 Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI P NI P NI NI P [63]
30 October GL/PvdA, NSC YouTube Luxor Live, Arnhem NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI P NI NI NI NI NI [64][65]
3 November NOS NPO Radio 1 Nieuwspoort, The Hague P P P P P P P P A P P P P P P P P [66]
5 November RTL Nieuws RTL 4 Felix Meritis, Amsterdam NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI P NI NI NI NI P [67]
12 November NI NI NI NI NI P P NI A P NI A NI P NI P P [68]
16 November Talpa TV SBS6 Media Park, Hilversum NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI P NI NI NI P P [69]
17 November ND Verkiezingsdebat YouTube De Basiliek, Veenendaal NI P P NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI NI NI NI NI [70]
17 November SP, NSC YouTube Unknown NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI P NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI [71]
17 November EenVandaag NPO 1 Media Park, Hilversum NI P P NI NI NI P NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI NI [72]
18 November NI NI NI P P NI NI NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI NI NI [72]
18 November Omroep Brabant,
Omroep Zeeland, L1 		Evoluon, Eindhoven NI NI P NI NI P P NI A P NI A NI P NI P P [73]
19 November Jeugdjournaal NPO 3 Media Park, Hilversum NI NI P NI NI P NI NI A NI NI P NI P NI P P [66]
20 November EenVandaag NPO 1 Ahoy, Rotterdam NI NI NI NI NI P NI NI P NI NI P NI P NI P P [72]
21 November NOS B67, The Hague P P NI P P NI NI P NI NI P NI P NI P NI NI [66]
NI NI P NI NI P P NI P P NI P NI P NI P P [66]

NOS op 3 debates

In addition to the conventional debates, a series of debates between two or three party leaders were hosted by news program NOS op 3. The debates are broadcast through the programme's media outlets, such as radio and YouTube. The debates were broadcast in real-time and were held with a select group of young people present, who, in addition to the viewers on the YouTube live stream, asked the candidates various questions.[74]

Assaults and attacks on Thierry Baudet

Thierry Baudet, founder and leader of the far-right[75] Forum for Democracy (FvD) was attacked with an umbrella upon his arrival at Ghent University on 26 October 2023,[76][77] resulting in a mild concussion.

On 20 November, Baudet was beaten with a beer bottle at a campaign event in Groningen, and was later hospitalised. Numerous politicians denounced the attack, with Mark Rutte stating that the attack was "totally unacceptable".[78][79] The antifascist far-left group AFA Noord claimed responsibility for the attack.[80][81]

Opinion polls

Шаблон:Main

The Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB) established a lead in the polls following its victory in the 2023 Dutch provincial elections, but started to decline in May 2023, and further declined when Pieter Omtzigt announced he would contest the election with his newly established party New Social Contract (NSC), which immediately performed well in the polls at the expense of BBB.[82] In the last polls before the election, NSC declined because it was unclear whether Pieter Omtzigt was willing to serve as prime minister should his party win the election. Their voters mostly diverted to VVD and PVV.[83]

Файл:Opinion polls NL 2021-2023.svg

Results

Файл:Tweede Kamerverkiezingen 2023 in Delft (003).jpg
Delft City Hall on election day 2023

Geert Wilders' PVV won 37 seats of the 150-seat parliament, more than doubling their seats from the previous election in 2021. The left-leaning GroenLinks–PvdA (GL-PvdA) finished second with 25 seats. The VVD party ended third with 24 seats. NSC came fourth with 20 seats.[7]

Шаблон:Election results

By province

Results by province[84]
Province PVV GL-
PvdA 		VVD NSC D66 BBB CDA SP DENK FvD PvdD SGP CU Volt JA21 Others
style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"|
Шаблон:Flag 26.0 14.0 12.6 16.0 4.5 8.8 3.7 3.3 0.5 2.3 1.8 0.8 2.6 1.0 0.6 0.8
Шаблон:Flag 26.6 11.8 14.8 12.2 4.5 5.2 2.5 3.2 3.3 3.3 1.9 3.8 2.6 1.1 0.7 2.6
Шаблон:Flag 24.5 14.6 11.2 16.3 4.3 8.3 5.3 3.4 0.4 2.7 1.8 1.0 2.7 0.9 0.7 1.7
Шаблон:Flag 22.2 15.4 14.4 13.2 5.9 6.2 3.6 2.9 1.4 2.0 2.2 4.1 2.8 1.5 0.6 1.5
Шаблон:Flag 21.8 20.2 9.9 14.6 5.7 6.1 3.0 4.5 0.8 2.3 2.7 0.9 3.4 1.9 0.6 1.7
Шаблон:Flag 33.3 13.5 13.8 14.1 4.8 4.4 3.4 3.7 1.2 2.3 1.7 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.6 1.7
Шаблон:Flag 26.9 13.1 18.1 12.7 6.6 4.4 3.5 4.1 1.8 1.9 1.8 0.4 0.6 1.6 0.7 1.7
Шаблон:Flag 19.8 20.7 17.1 10.1 7.9 3.2 2.3 3.1 3.4 2.5 3.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 0.7 2.8
Шаблон:Flag 22.0 11.6 11.1 21.9 4.3 8.5 3.5 2.4 1.4 2.1 1.5 3.0 3.4 1.3 0.6 1.1
Шаблон:Flag 24.4 14.7 16.0 10.9 6.4 2.6 3.3 2.7 4.1 2.4 2.3 3.1 2.4 1.8 0.8 1.9
Шаблон:Flag 17.6 20.5 16.2 10.5 8.4 2.8 3.4 2.3 3.1 1.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.6 0.6 1.6
Шаблон:Flag 23.9 11.1 14.7 12.1 4.1 5.9 4.3 3.1 0.8 2.5 1.8 9.7 2.9 0.7 0.7 1.7
Шаблон:Flag 10.9 13.8 10.7 8.2 26.2 5.0 1.6 1.5 0.4 2.3 2.2 0.4 11.7 1.4 0.3 3.5
Postal voters abroad 6.3 28.6 17.4 12.1 10.5 3.2 1.9 1.9 0.3 3.3 4.0 0.7 1.6 5.2 0.8 2.2

Aftermath

Political analysis

International media described the results as "one of the biggest political upsets in Dutch politics since World War II",[85] and as a landslide victory for the Party for Freedom (PVV).[86][87][88] Many analysts speculated that the rise of the PVV was due to great debate performances by Wilders in the weeks upcoming to the election. Since the largest issue of the election was shifted to the topic of migration it helped to boost the appeal of Wilders.[89] Some politics journalists opined that Wilders was able to build wider support by softening some of his statements after VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz suggested she might include the PVV in negotiations and declaring in a debate that he would be "a Prime Minister for all Dutch people."[90] Others commented ahead of the election that newer anti-establishment and alternative parties to the PVV such as the Forum for Democracy, JA21, BBB and Pieter Omtzigt's New Social Contract ran out of steam after voters had experimented with them before moving back to the PVV as Wilders had remained a stronger and more consistent political figure.[91]

In addition, the leader of the GroenLinks–PvdA coalition, Frans Timmermans, was disliked by many right wingers, and since the VVD and NSC did not directly rule out working with either PVV or GL-PvdA, this led to right-wing voters consolidating around Wilders in order to prevent a Timmermans premiership.[92] The Farmer–Citizen Movement saw a decline from their peak in the provincial elections in March, with many of their voters going towards NSC or PVV as issues around nitrogen emissions were only a minor topic in the campaign.[93]

The results of the elections are expected to lead to protracted and complicated coalition talks. Outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte will remain in a caretaker capacity, and the incumbent coalition government will continue as a demissionary cabinet until the next coalition government is sworn in, which can take up to several months.

Reactions

Following his victory, Wilders was praised by Hungary's Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán. He was also praised by far-right leaders across Europe such as Marine Le Pen, Matteo Salvini, André Ventura, Alice Weidel, Tom Van Grieken, and Santiago Abascal.[94][95]

All parties of the incumbent coalition government lost seats in this election.[8] Incumbent coalition party Democrats 66 leader Rob Jetten blamed the senior coalition party VVD and its leader Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius for the successes of Wilders and the PVV in the election, saying on election night that "Yeşilgöz left the door wide open for Wilders" and blaming her party's campaign strategy for allowing "the politics of intolerance [to be] normalized while it should never be normal". Yeşilgöz denied her party's strategy was to blame for the PVV's success, saying, "It was not the VVD that made the PVV great. The voters did that."[96]

Government formation

Шаблон:Main

See also

Notes

Шаблон:Notelist

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Шаблон:Dutch elections

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Разное

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