Английская Википедия:2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:See also Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsMS The 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2023, to elect the governor of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican governor Tate Reeves won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee Brandon Presley. Primary elections were held on August 8. Incumbent governor Reeves won the Republican nomination, while Presley won the Democratic nomination unopposed.

The race was considered to be competitive with Reeves being slightly favored. Reeves won re-election, but this was the best performance for a Democrat, the worst for a Republican, and the closest Mississippi gubernatorial election since 1999. It was also the closest ever gubernatorial election in the state won by a Republican, and the closest gubernatorial election in the 2023 cycle.

Background

This was the first Mississippi gubernatorial election since a 2020 referendum altered the election process. Previously, under a provision crafted as part of the 1890 Constitution of Mississippi, a candidate needed a majority of voters across the state and a majority of voters in a majority of state House of Representatives districts; if no candidates achieved such a result, the state House of Representatives would choose between the top two finishers, something that last happened in 1999.

This structure was referred to as Mississippi’s version of the electoral college; it was originally crafted, in the words of the Mississippi Historical Society, as part of "the legal basis and bulwark of the design of white supremacy". In the 21st century, because the state House districts favor Republican candidates, the provision was seen as helping Republican gubernatorial candidates as well. Under the new law, any candidate who receives a majority of statewide votes will be elected; if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, a statewide runoff election between the top two candidates will be held.

A socially conservative Southern state, Mississippi is considered safely Republican at the federal and state level, with both of its U.S. senators, all but one of its U.S. representatives and all statewide officers currently belonging to the Republican Party. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump comfortably carried Mississippi by 17 percentage points. Incumbent governor Tate Reeves was first elected in 2019, narrowly defeating then-attorney general Jim Hood, who was the only Democrat elected to hold statewide office in Mississippi at the time.

Most analysts considered Reeves to be a favorite to win reelection, given the state's partisan lean and incumbency advantage. Nonetheless, the race was considered to be unusually competitive throughout the Fall as polling showed the race within the margin of error. Weaknesses for Reeves included his narrow victory four years prior, the heavy criticism he has faced for his handling of the Jackson water crisis, and for his ties to a welfare corruption scandal, both of which led him to have the lowest approval ratings of any Republican governor in the country. The Democratic nominee, Brandon Presley, was considered to be a strong general election candidate; he represented the Northern district on the Mississippi Public Service Commission since 2008, despite that district having a strong Republican bent, and held relatively moderate views on social issues, thus being closer to fitting the state.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Tate Reeves, incumbent governor

Eliminated in primary

• David Grady Hardigree, U.S. Army veteran
• John Witcher, physician

Declined

• Lynn Fitch, Mississippi Attorney General (ran for re-election)
• Robert Foster, former state representative and candidate for governor in 2019 (ran for the DeSoto County Board of Supervisors)
• Andy Gipson, Mississippi Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce (ran for re-election)
• Philip Gunn, Speaker of the Mississippi House of Representatives
• Bill Waller Jr., former Chief Justice of the Mississippi Supreme Court, son of former governor Bill Waller, and candidate for governor in 2019
• Michael Watson, Mississippi Secretary of State (ran for re-election)
• Shad White, Mississippi State Auditor (ran for re-election)

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	David Hardigree	Tate Reeves	John Witcher	Other	Undecided
Mississippi Today/Siena College	Jun 4–7, 2023	646 (RV)	± 4.8%	0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|59%	0%	8%Шаблон:Efn	33%
American StrategiesШаблон:Efn-ua	May 22–24, 2023	646 (LV)	± 3.9%	2%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|70%	4%	-	24%

Tate Reeves vs. Bill Waller Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Tate Reeves	Bill Waller Jr.	Undecided
Mississippi Today/Siena College	January 3–8, 2023	821 (RV)	± 4.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52%	29%	19%

Results

Файл:2023 Mississippi gubernatorial Republican primary results map by county.svg

Results by county: Шаблон:Collapsible list

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Brandon Presley, Mississippi Public Service Commissioner for the Northern District

Disqualified

• Bob Hickingbottom, political consultant and Constitution nominee for governor in 2019
• Gregory Wash, songwriter and candidate for governor in 2019

Declined

• Shuwaski Young, political organizer and nominee for Шаблон:Ushr in 2022 (ran for Secretary of State)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 9, 2023
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Brandon Presley	$1,760,057	$773,134	$1,714,455

Independents

Candidates

Withdrawn

• Gwendolyn Gray, nonprofit executive (endorsed Presley, remained on ballot)

Declined

• George Flaggs Jr., mayor of Vicksburg and former Democratic state representative
• Bill Waller Jr.,Шаблон:Efn former Chief Justice of the Mississippi Supreme Court, son of former governor Bill Waller, and candidate for governor in 2019

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 23, 2023
Inside Elections	Шаблон:USRaceRating	September 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	October 16, 2023
Elections Daily	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 7, 2023

Debate

Dates	Location	Presley	Reeves	Link
November 1, 2023	WAPT Studios Jackson	Participant	Participant	YouTube

Endorsements

<section begin="johnsonendorsements" /> Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Tate Reeves (R)	Brandon Presley (D)	Other Шаблон:Efn	Margin
Real Clear Politics	August 20 – October 2, 2023	October 5, 2022	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51.5%	42.0%	6.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Reeves +9.5%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Tate Reeves (R)	Brandon Presley (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	October 19–20, 2023	601 (V)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46%	45%	–	10%
Magnolia Tribune/Mason-Dixon	September 27 – October 2, 2023	625 (LV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51%	43%	–	6%
Mississippi Today/Siena College	August 20–28, 2023	650 (LV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52%	41%	1%Шаблон:Efn	6%
Impact Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	August 6–9, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	46%	–	8%
OnMessage Inc. (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	July 7, 2023	–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49%	32%	–	19%
Impact Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	April 24–27, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47%	44%	–	9%
Mississippi Today/Siena College	April 16–20, 2023	783 (RV)	± 4.3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49%	38%	7%Шаблон:Efn	6%
Magnolia Tribune/Mason-Dixon	March 6–10, 2023	625 (RV)Шаблон:Efn	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46%	39%	–	15%
Mississippi Today/Tulchin ResearchШаблон:Efn-ua	January 21–25, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	43%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47%	–	10%
Mississippi Today/Siena College	January 3–8, 2023	821 (RV)	± 4.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43%	39%	2%Шаблон:Efn	14%
Impact Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	December 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49%	42%	–	9%

Tate Reeves vs. generic opponent

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Tate Reeves (R)	Generic Opponent	Undecided
Mississippi Today/Siena College	April 16–20, 2023	783 (RV)	± 4.3%	36%	Шаблон:Party shading/Other|60%	4%
Mississippi Today/Siena College	January 3–8, 2023	821 (RV)	± 4.6%	33%	Шаблон:Party shading/Other|57%	10%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Forrest (Largest city: Hattiesburg)
• Grenada (Largest city: Grenada)
• Lowndes (Largest city: Columbus)
• Winston (Largest city: Louisville)
• Yalobusha (Largest city: Water Valley)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Lafayette (Largest city: Oxford)
• Madison (Largest city: Madison)

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

• Gwendolyn Gray (I) for Governor
• Brandon Presley (D) for Governor
• Tate Reeves (R) for Governor