Английская Википедия:2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Row hover highlight Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsIA

The 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses will be held on January 15, 2024,[1] as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 40 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention will be allocated on a proportional basis.[2] As in past primary cycles, the Iowa caucus will be the first-in-the-nation Republican presidential primary caucus.

Background and electorate

History of the Iowa caucus

Beginning in 1972, the Iowa caucuses have been characterized as the first major electoral test for both Democratic and Republican presidential contenders.[3] Despite its strategic importance, between 1976 and 2016, only three out of eight winners of the Iowa caucuses went on to receive the Republican presidential nomination.[4]

Republican electorate

Matthew Dallek, a professor of political history at George Washington University, has argued that the Iowa Republican caucuses effectively serve as "referendums on who is the most socially conservative candidate" in the Republican field.[4]

Commentators have noted the decisive role of Evangelical Christian caucusgoers in past contests. The victory of social conservatives Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Ted Cruz in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 Iowa caucuses, respectively, was credited to their strong support among evangelical voters.[5][6][7][8]

In 2016, it was noted by The Des Moines Register that almost half of likely Republican caucusgoers self-identify as evangelical or born-again Christians.[9] In the 2016 Iowa Republican caucus, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas defeated eventual nominee Donald Trump by a 27.6% to 24.3% margin in what was considered an upset victory.

Procedure

Delegates are proportionally allocated to candidates based on the total statewide vote. Unlike most states, there is no mininimum threshold for a candidate to be eligible for delegates.

Campaign developments

In February 2023, the Trump campaign announced its Iowa campaign staff, with state representative Bobby Kaufmann and consultant Eric Branstad, the son of former Governor Terry Branstad, serving as senior advisors.[10] In March 2023, Trump's campaign announced that it would hold an "America First Education Policy" event in Davenport on March 13, marking his first official campaign appearance in the state.[11][12]

Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis, who has declared his candidacy,[13] held a pair of events in the state on March 10, and was accompanied by Governor Kim Reynolds.[14] However, Reynolds remained neutral between Trump and DeSantis, which caused Trump to post on Truth Social accusing her of stealing the race from him and that like DeSantis, she wouldn't have been elected without Trump's help.[15] Reynolds broke her neutrality in November 2023 and endorsed DeSantis.[16] Additionally, between October and December, DeSantis toured all 99 Iowan counties.[17]

Endorsements

Шаблон:Main Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Maps

<section begin="maps" />

Файл:2024 United States presidential election Republican primary Iowa Senate endorsements.svg
Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the Iowa Senate.
Шаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:Legend
Файл:2024 United States presidential election Republican primary Iowa House endorsements.svg
Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the Iowa House of Representatives.
Шаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:Legend

<section end="maps" />

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Chris
Christie 		Ron
DeSantis 		Nikki
Haley 		Asa
Hutchinson 		Vivek
Ramaswamy 		Donald
Trump 		Other/
UndecidedШаблон:Efn 		Margin
270toWin December 14 – 21, 2023 December 21, 2023 3.6% 17.8% 15.6% 0.4% 6.2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |52.6% 3.8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Trump +34.8
FiveThirtyEight Through December 19, 2023 December 20, 2023 3.9% 18.6% 15.6% 0.6% 5.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |49.5% 6.1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Trump +30.9
RealClearPolling December 1 – 19 December 20, 2023 3.7% 18.6% 16.1% 0.7% 5.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |51.3% 3.7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Trump +32.7
Average 3.7% 18.3% 15.8% 0.6% 5.9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |51.1% 4.5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Trump +32.8
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
sizeШаблон:Efn 		Margin
Шаблон:Nowrap 		Doug
Burgum 		Chris
Christie 		Ron
DeSantis 		Larry
Elder 		Nikki
Haley 		Asa
Hutchinson 		Mike
Pence 		Vivek
Ramaswamy 		Tim
Scott 		Donald
Trump 		Other Undecided
InsiderAdvantage Dec 18–19, 2023 850 (LV) ± 4.36% – 4% 15% – 17% 0% – 8% – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 50% – 6%
Fox Business Dec 14–18, 2023 804 (LV) ± 3.5% – 3% 18% – 16% 0% – 7% – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 52% 1% 2%
Emerson College Dec 15–17, 2023 420 (LV) ± 4.7% – 4% 15% – 17% 0% – 8% – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 50% – 6%
Iowa State University/Civiqs Dec 8–13, 2023 438 (LV) ± 6.0% – 4% 17% – 15% 1% – 7% – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 54% 0%Шаблон:Efn 2%
Selzer & Co.Шаблон:Efn-ua Dec 2–7, 2023 502 (LV) ± 4.4% – 4% 19% – 16% 1% – 5% – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 51% 2%Шаблон:Efn 3%
Trafalgar Group Dec 1–4, 2023 1,091 (LV) ± 2.9% 2% 4% 22% – 19% 1% – 5% – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 45% – 1%
Morning Consult Nov 1–30, 2023 324 (LV) – 1% 2% 18% – 11% 0% – 13% 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |50% – –
Iowa State University/Civiqs Nov 10–15, 2023 432 (LV) ± 4.3% 1% 3% 18% – 12% 0% – 6% 2% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 54% 0% 4%
Arc InsightsШаблон:Efn-ua Nov 9–14, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 1% 4% 17% – 17% <1% – 5% – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 44% 2%Шаблон:Efn 9%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesШаблон:Efn-ua Nov 9–12, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 1% 5% 19% - 16% 0% - 4% 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% 0% 7%
2% 5% 20% - 18% 0% - 5% - Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44% 0% 7%
Trafalgar Group (R) Nov 3–5, 2023 1,084 (LV) ± 2.9% 4% 5% 18% – 15% 0% – 5% 9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 44% 0%Шаблон:Efn 1%
Morning Consult Oct 1–31, 2023 324 (LV) – 1% 2% 15% – 7% 0% 3% 9% 6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |57% – –
Public Opinion StrategiesШаблон:Efn-ua Oct 24–26, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 2% 20% – 12% 1% 1% 4% 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican| 46% – –
Selzer & Co.Шаблон:Efn-ua Oct 22–26, 2023 404 (LV) ± 4.9% 3% 4% 16% – 16% 1% 2%Шаблон:Efn 4% 7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% 2%Шаблон:Efn 3%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesШаблон:Efn-ua Oct 17–19, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 3% 21% 0% 14% 0% 2% 4% 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% 2%Шаблон:Efn 6%
Iowa State University/Civiqs Oct 6–10, 2023 425 (LV) ± 6.1% 0% 2% 17% 0% 11% 0% 1% 5% 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|55% 2%Шаблон:Efn 1%
Morning Consult Sep 1–30, 2023 316 (LV) – 1% 5% 13% – 6% – 7% 9% 7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |53% – –
CBS News/YouGov Sep 15–24, 2023 458 (LV) ± 6.1% 0% 1% 21% 0% 8% 1% 6% 5% 6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51% 0%Шаблон:Efn –
Public Opinion StrategiesШаблон:Efn-ua Sep 19–21, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 2% 21% – 9% 0% 2% 5% 6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% – 9%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesШаблон:Efn-ua Sep 17–19, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 1% 5% 15% – 13% <1% 2% 5% 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% <1%Шаблон:Efn 7%
Trafalgar Group (R) Sep 14–18, 2023 1,079 (LV) ± 2.9% 4% 2% 16% 0% 8% 0% 4% 7% 7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% 1%Шаблон:Efn 2%
Fox Business Sep 14–18, 2023 813 (LV) ± 3% 2% 3% 15% <0.5% 11% <0.5% 3% 7% 7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% 3%Шаблон:Efn 2%
Emerson College Sep 7–9, 2023 357 (V) ± 5.1% 3% – 14% – 7% – 3% 7% 8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% 6% –
Civiqs Sep 2–7, 2023 434 (LV) ± 5.8% 2% 3% 14% – 10% 0% 1% 9% 6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51% 1%Шаблон:Efn –
Public Opinion Strategies Sep 5–6, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 3% 22% – 6% 1% 2% 6% 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% – –
Morning Consult Aug 1–31, 2023 341 (LV) – 1% 4% 15% – 6% 0% 6% 8% 7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |52% 0%Шаблон:Efn 1%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates Aug 25–28, 2023 500 (LV) – 2% 3% 18% <1% 10% 1% 2% 7% 7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44% <2%Шаблон:Efn 5%
Public Opinion Strategies August 24, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 1% 21% – 11% 1% 2% 7% 7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|41% – –
Public Opinion Strategies Aug 19–21, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 3% 3% 14% – 3% <1% 2% 10% 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% – –
HarrisXШаблон:Efn-ua Aug 17–21, 2023 1,120 (LV) –Шаблон:Efn 2% 3% 11% 0% 4% 0% 3% 9% 8% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% 3%Шаблон:Efn 12%
–Шаблон:Efn 2% 4% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|21% 1% 6% 1% 8% 18% 15% – 4%Шаблон:Efn 19%
Echelon InsightsШаблон:Efn-ua Aug 15–17, 2023 800 (LV) ± 4.2% 2% 4% 17% – 2% <1% 3% 8% 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|33% 3%Шаблон:Efn 14%
Selzer & Co.Шаблон:Efn-ua Aug 13–17, 2023 406 (LV) ± 4.9% 2% 5% 19% – 6% – 6% 4% 9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% 1%Шаблон:Efn 5%
The Trafalgar Group (R) Aug 14–16, 2023 1,126 (LV) ± 2.9% 3% 4% 16% 1% 5% 1% 4% 6% 13% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% 3%Шаблон:Efn 3%
New York Times/Siena College Jul 28 – August 1, 2023 432 (LV) ± 5.9% 1% <1% 20% <1% 4% <1% 3% 5% 9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44% <2%Шаблон:Efn 12%
– – 39% – – – – – – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|55% – 4%
Manhattan Institute Jul 2023 625 (LV) – 3% 4% 17% 0% 5% 1% 4% 6% 10% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% 1%Шаблон:Efn 7%
Morning Consult July 1–31, 2023 350 (LV) – 1% 2% 19% – 4% 0% 4% 8% 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |55% – 2%
National ResearchШаблон:Efn-ua Jul 23–24, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 3% 4% 15% – 3% 0% 2% 5% 9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% – 13%
Fox Business Jul 15–19, 2023 806 (LV) ± 3.5% 3% 3% 16% <1% 5% 1% 4% 6% 11% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |46% 1%Шаблон:Efn 4%
co/efficientШаблон:Efn-ua Jul 15–17, 2023 2,238 (LV) ± 2.6% – 3% 16% – 3% – 3% 5% 10% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |46% – 10%
National ResearchШаблон:Efn-ua Jul 5–6, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 3% 21% – 2% 1% 3% 3% 7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |44% – 14%
Morning Consult June 1–30, 2023 317 (LV) – 0% 1% 18% – 2% 1% 7% 3% 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |64% 0%Шаблон:Efn 1%
McLaughlin & AssociatesШаблон:Efn-ua Jun 10–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 19% – – – 6% – 9% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |51% – 15%
– – 33% – – – – – – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |60% – 7%
National ResearchШаблон:Efn-ua Jun 5–7, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 2% 24% – 4% 0% 4% 1% 5% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |39% – 21%
Victory Insights Jun 3–6, 2023 450 (LV) ± 4.9% – 3% 21% – 5% – 5% 2% 6% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |44% 3%Шаблон:Efn 12%
– – 32% – – – – – – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |49% – 19%
WPA IntelligenceШаблон:Efn-ua May 30 – June 1, 2023 655 (RV) – – – 29% – 6% <1% 4% 4% 7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |39% – 11%
– – 43% – – – – – – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |45% – 12%
Morning Consult May 1–31, 2023 300 (LV) – – – 17% – 5% 0% 8% 5% 1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |60% 4%Шаблон:Efn 0%
McLaughlin & Associates May 23–25, 2023 400 (LV) – 0% 1% 24% 1% 4% 1% 5% 2% 7% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |50% 3%Шаблон:Efn 4%
– – 36% – – – – – – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |54% – 11%
Emerson College May 19–22, 2023 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 0% – 20% – 5% 1% 5% 2% 3% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |62% 2%Шаблон:Efn –
National ResearchШаблон:Efn-ua May 9–11, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 26% – 6% 1% 4% 3% 1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |44% – 11%
– – 33% – – – – – – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |45% – 22%
McLaughlin & AssociatesШаблон:Efn-ua Apr 27–30, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 1% 20% 1% 5% 0% 7% 2% 1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |54% 5%Шаблон:Efn 5%
– – 22% – – – – – – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |57% – –
Morning Consult Apr 1–30, 2023 294 (LV) – – – 20% – 4% 0% 7% 4% 0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |60% 3%Шаблон:Efn 2%
Victory Insights Apr 10–13, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.8% – – 24% – 14% 4% – 3% – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |54% 1%Шаблон:Efn –
– – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |59% – 24% 5% – 8% – – 4%Шаблон:Efn –
– – 41% – – – – – – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |59% – –
Cygnal Apr 3–4, 2023 600 (LV) ± 3.9% – – 30% – 5% 1% 2% 2% 1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |37% 3%Шаблон:Efn 19%
J.L. Partners Mar 25 – April 4, 2023 628 (LV) ± 3.9% – – 26% – 5% – 3% 1% – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |41% 10%Шаблон:Efn 14%
– – 39% – – – – – – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |47% – 15%
Morning Consult Mar 1–31, 2023 329 (LV) – – – 27% – 5% – 7% – 0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |57% 2%Шаблон:Efn 2%
Morning Consult Feb 1–28, 2023 281 (LV) – – – 25% – 6% – 9% 0% 0% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |52% 8%Шаблон:Efn 0%
Morning Consult Jan 1–31, 2023 367 (LV) – – – 27% – 5% – 9% – 1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |51% 5%Шаблон:Efn 2%
Morning Consult Dec 1–31, 2022 227 (LV) – – – 35% – 2% – 11% – 1% Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |44% 8%Шаблон:Efn 0%
WPA IntelligenceШаблон:Efn-ua Nov 11–13, 2022 508 (LV) ± 4.4% – – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |48% – – – – – – 37% – 16%
WPA IntelligenceШаблон:Efn-ua Aug 7–10, 2022 508 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 37% – – – – – – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |52% – 12%
Neighborhood Research and MediaШаблон:Efn-ua Jun 22 – July 1, 2022 546 (LV) ± 4.2% – – 17% – 2% – 2% – – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |38% 4%Шаблон:Efn –
Victory Insights Mar 5–8, 2021 630 (RV) – – – 4% – 6% – 8% – – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |61% 13%Шаблон:Efn –
– – Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |20% – 10% – 19% – – – Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided |33%Шаблон:Efn –

Results

Шаблон:2023IARep

See also

Шаблон:Commons

Notes

Шаблон:Notelist

Partisan clients

Шаблон:Notelist-ua

References

Шаблон:Reflist

Шаблон:2024 Republican primaries

Партнерские ресурсы
Криптовалюты
Магазины
Хостинг
Разное

  1. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  2. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  3. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  4. ↑ 4,0 4,1 Шаблон:Cite web
  5. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  6. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  7. ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
  8. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  9. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  10. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  11. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  12. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  13. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  14. ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
  15. ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
  16. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  17. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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