Английская Википедия:2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary
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The 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary will be held on January 23, 2024,[1] as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 22 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention will be allocated on a proportional basis.[2] The New Hampshire primary will be the second contest in the nation, held after the Iowa caucus.
Background
Donald Trump won the 2016 New Hampshire Republican primary with 35.2% of the vote, with closest opponent John Kasich coming in second with 15.7% of the vote.
Exit polling by Edison Research concluded that Trump's 2016 primary victory could be credited to support among white voters without a college degree, as well as support from moderate voters.[3]
Procedure
Delegates are proportionally allocated to candidates who received at least 10% of the total statewide vote.
Candidates
The following candidates have officially filed by the end of the filing deadline on October 27, 2023:[4]
- Scott Alan Ayers
- Ryan L. Binkley
- Robert S Carney Jr.
- John Anthony Castro
- Chris Christie
- Ron DeSantis
- Nikki Haley
- Asa Hutchinson
- Peter Jedick
- Donald Kjornes
- Mary Maxwell
- Glenn J. McPeters
- Scott Peterson Merrell
- Darius L. Mitchell
- Vivek Ramaswamy
- Sam Sloan
- David Stuckenberg
- Rachel Swift
- Donald Trump
- Perry Johnson (withdrew October 20)[5]
- Mike Pence (withdrew October 28)[6]
- Tim Scott (withdrew November 12)[7]
- Hirsh V. Singh (withdrawn)[8]
- Doug Burgum (withdrew December 4)[9]
Campaign
In January 2023, Trump selected outgoing New Hampshire Republican Party chair Stephen Stepanek to oversee his campaign's operations in the state.[10]
New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, who considered a presidential candidacy, established a "Live Free or Die committee",[11] though he announced on June 5 that he would not be running for the Republican nomination.[12]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Main Шаблон:Endorsements box
Maps
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Шаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:Legend
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Polling
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Chris Christie |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Asa Hutchinson |
Vivek Ramaswamy |
Donald Trump |
Other/ UndecidedШаблон:Efn |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win | November 14 – December 20, 2023 | December 20, 2023 | 12.0% | 9.3% | 25.7% | 0.3% | 6.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |44.3% | 1.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Trump +18.6 |
| FiveThirtyEight | Through December 19, 2023 | December 20, 2023 | 12.2% | 8.3% | 23.6% | 0.3% | 6.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |43.4% | 5.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Trump +19.8 |
| RealClearPolitics | November 9 – December 19, 2023 | December 20, 2023 | 12.0% | 9.3% | 25.7% | 0.5% | 6.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |44.3% | 1.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Trump +18.6 |
| Average | 12.1% | 9.0% | 25.0% | 0.4% | 6.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |44.0% | 2.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |Trump +19.0 | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Doug Burgum |
Chris Christie |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Asa Hutchinson |
Mike Pence |
Vivek Ramaswamy |
Tim Scott |
Donald Trump |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | Dec 14–20, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 13% | 6% | 29% | 1% | – | 5% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|33% | 1% | 12% |
| Saint Anselm College | Dec 18–19, 2023 | 1,072 (LV) | ± 3.0% | – | 12% | 6% | 30% | 0% | – | 5% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44% | – | 3% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov | Dec 7–18, 2023 | 450 (LV) | ± 5.4% | – | 6% | 10% | 22% | 1% | – | 4% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% | 0%Шаблон:Efn | 5% |
| CBS News/YouGov | Dec 8–15, 2023 | 855 (LV) | ± 4.1% | – | 10% | 11% | 29% | 1% | – | 5% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44% | – | – |
| Trafalgar Group | Dec 9–11, 2023 | 1,098 (LV) | ± 2.9% | – | 14% | 11% | 18% | 0% | – | 10% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | – | 1% |
| Americans for Prosperity | Nov 19–21, 2023 | 800 (LV) | – | – | – | 9% | 25% | – | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|40% | 26% | – |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center/CNN | Nov 10–14, 2023 | 994 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 2% | 14% | 9% | 20% | 0% | – | 8% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% | 3% | 2% |
| Washington Post/Monmouth University | Nov 9–14, 2023 | 606 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 2% | 11% | 7% | 18% | 1% | – | 8% | 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% | 0% | 4% |
| Emerson College/WHDH | Nov 10–13, 2023 | 465 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 1.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 17.6% | 0.3% | – | 4.6% | 2.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48.5% | – | 9.3% |
| USA TODAY/Boston Globe/Suffolk University | Sep 28 – October 2, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 1% | 6% | 10% | 19% | – | 1% | 4% | 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% | – | – |
| CBS News/YouGov | Sep 15–24, 2023 | 502 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 2% | 8% | 13% | 11% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 0%Шаблон:Efn | – |
| Saint Anselm College | Sep 19–20, 2023 | 931 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 1% | 10% | 11% | 15% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 0%Шаблон:Efn | 6% |
| Insider Advantage | September 20, 2023 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.36% | 4% | 10% | 8% | 14% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 9% |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 14–18, 2023 | 1,006 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 1% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 0% | 2% | 13% | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|39% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 6% |
| NMB Research | Aug 25–31, 2023 | 800 (LV) | – | 1% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 1% | 4% | 8% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% | <3%Шаблон:Efn | 4% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | Aug 25–28, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 2% | 5% | 11% | 9% | <1% | 1% | 9% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|48% | <3%Шаблон:Efn | 9% |
| Echelon InsightsШаблон:Efn-ua | Aug 15–17, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 2% | 14% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 11% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |34% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 12% |
| Emerson College | Aug 9–11, 2023 | 498 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 4% | 9% | 8% | 4% | – | 1% | 3% | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |49% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 13% |
| co/efficient | Aug 5–7, 2023 | 862 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 4% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 13% |
| Manhattan Institute | July 2023 | 603 (LV) | – | 3% | 11% | 13% | 7% | 1% | 4% | 8% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|34% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 8% |
| National ResearchШаблон:Efn-ua | Jul 25–26, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|41% | – | 15% |
| University of New Hampshire | Jul 13–17, 2023 | 898 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 6% | 6% | 23% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |37% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 8% |
| National ResearchШаблон:Efn-ua | Jul 10–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 3% | 7% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |39% | – | 17% |
| American Pulse | Jul 5–11, 2023 | 895 | ± 3.2% | 3% | 10% | 11% | 3% | – | 5% | 5% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |48% | – | 8%Шаблон:Efn |
| Saint Anselm College | Jun 21–23, 2023 | 494 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 2% | 6% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |47% | 0%Шаблон:Efn | 10% |
| New Hampshire Journal/co-efficient | Jun 14–16, 2023 | 904 (LV) | ± 3.3% | – | 9% | 13% | 3% | – | 5% | 3% | 3% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |47% | 5% | 10% |
| – | – | 23% | – | – | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |49% | – | 28% | ||||
| National ResearchШаблон:Efn-ua | Jun 12–14, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | 7% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |44% | 18%Шаблон:Efn | – |
| National ResearchШаблон:Efn-ua | May 15–17, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | – | 18% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |39% | 32%Шаблон:Efn | – |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 13–17, 2023 | 818 (LV) | ± 3.4% | – | 1% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |42% | 20%Шаблон:Efn | 4% |
| J.L Partners | Apr 2–11, 2023 | 623 (LV) | ± 3.9% | – | 2% | 18% | 4% | – | 2% | 1% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |51% | 19%Шаблон:Efn | 6% |
| – | – | 33% | – | – | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |53% | – | 13% | ||||
| Saint Anselm College | Mar 28–30, 2023 | 1,320 (RV) | ± 4.0% | – | 1% | 29% | 4% | – | 1% | 3% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |42% | 19%Шаблон:Efn | – |
| Emerson College | Mar 3–5, 2023 | 384 (RV) | ± 5.0% | – | – | 17% | 6% | – | 4% | – | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |58% | 14%Шаблон:Efn | – |
| co/efficient | Jan 25–26, 2023 | 506 (LV) | ± 4.35% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| – | – | 26% | 4% | – | 3% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican | 37% | 13%Шаблон:Efn | 18% | ||||
| University of New Hampshire | Jan 19–23, 2023 | 349 (LV) | ± 5.2% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |42% | 8% | – | 1% | – | 0% | 30% | 16%Шаблон:Efn | 3% |
| Neighborhood Research and Media | Dec 5–13, 2022 | 434 (LV) | ± 4.7% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |33% | – | – | 3% | – | – | 32% | 13% | 19% |
| WPA IntelligenceШаблон:Efn-ua | Nov 11–13, 2022 | 401 (LV) | ± 4.9% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |52% | – | – | – | – | – | 37% | – | 11% |
| 2022 midterm elections | ||||||||||||||
| Saint Anselm College | Aug 9–11, 2022 | 820 (RV) | ± 3.4% | – | – | 29% | 3% | – | 3% | – | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |50% | 4%Шаблон:Efn | 8% |
| WPA IntelligenceШаблон:Efn-ua | Aug 7–10, 2022 | 401 (LV) | ± 4.9% | – | – | 45% | – | – | – | – | – | 45% | – | 10% |
| Neighborhood Research and MediaШаблон:Efn-ua | Jul 5–8, 2022 | 475 (RV) | ± 4.5% | – | – | 22% | 1% | – | 1% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |41% | 3%Шаблон:Efn | 32% |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 16–20, 2022 | 318 (LV) | ± 5.5% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |39% | 6% | – | 9% | – | 0% | 37% | 6%Шаблон:Efn | 3% |
| University of New Hampshire | Oct 14–18, 2021 | 441 (LV) | ± 4.7% | – | – | 18% | 6% | – | 4% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |43% | 14%Шаблон:Efn | 10% |
| University of New Hampshire | Jul 15–19, 2021 | 770 (LV) | ± 3.5% | – | – | 19% | 6% | – | 5% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |43% | 13%Шаблон:Efn | 10% |
| Saint Anselm CollegeШаблон:Efn-ua | May 7–10, 2021 | 635 (RV) | ± 3.9% | – | – | 20% | 7% | – | 4% | – | 0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |52% | 7%Шаблон:Efn | 10% |
| Victory Insights | Mar 5–11, 2021 | 400 (RV) | – | – | – | 5% | 3% | – | 6% | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |52% | 14%Шаблон:Efn | – |
| – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |21% | 7% | – | 18% | – | – | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Other |29%Шаблон:Efn | – | ||||
| Inauguration of Joe Biden | ||||||||||||||
| Praecones Analytica | Nov 30 – December 2, 2020 | 624 (RV) | ± 4.0% | – | – | – | 7% | – | 6% | – | 2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |57% | 19%Шаблон:Efn | 10% |
| – | – | – | 12% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |25% | – | 3% | – | Шаблон:Party shading/Other |46%Шаблон:Efn | 14% | ||||
Results
See also
- 2024 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
Шаблон:2024 Republican primaries
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