Английская Википедия:2024 Punjab provincial election
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Infobox election
Provincial elections will be held in the Pakistani province of Punjab on 8 February 2024 to elect a new provincial legislature. On 5 August 2023, the results of the 2023 digital census were approved by the Council of Common Interests headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Therefore, elections have been delayed for several months, as new delimitations will be published on 14 December 2023, as announced by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP).[1][2] On 2 November 2023, the ECP announced, in agreement with the President of Pakistan, Arif Alvi, that the elections will be held on 8 February 2024.[3] This election will be held concurrently with nationwide general elections and other provincial elections.
Background
In the 2018 election, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) emerged as the largest party in the Provincial Assembly of Punjab after 25 independents joined it. However, the PTI was still 2 seats short of a majority. After the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) (PML(Q)) agreed to support the PTI, they formed a coalition government in the province.[4] The Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML(N)) emerged as the second largest party and formed the opposition.
During a political crisis in Pakistan after the successful no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan, another motion of no confidence was filed against Chief Minister Usman Buzdar, as well as against Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi and Dost Muhammad Mazari, the Speaker and Deputy Speaker of the Provincial Assembly, respectively. Buzdar resigned before a vote on the motion of no confidence could be held and as a consequence, an election for a new Chief Minister was scheduled on 16 April between PML(N)'s Hamza Shahbaz, the joint candidate of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), and PML(Q)'s Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, the joint candidate of his party and PTI. On the day of the election, 25 PTI MPAs crossed the floor to support Shahbaz, violating party policy. During the very beginning of the Assembly session on 16 April, a riot began between PTI and PML-N supporters. PTI MPAs threw ewers at the Deputy Speaker, as well as slapping him. The police entered the Assembly for the first time in its history and arrested 3 MPAs.[5] The Deputy Speaker then presided over the Assembly session in the visitors gallery and declared Shahbaz the winner by securing 197 votes.[6]
After the floor crossing, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) de-seated 25 dissident PTI MPAs for defection in the light of Article 63-A of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan on 20 May 2022.[7] Five of these MPAs were elected on reserved seats (3 for women and 2 for minorities) and new PTI MPAs were notified on these seats on 7 July.[8]
By-elections were held on 17 July 2022 to elect the remaining 20 members. The PTI won in a landslide, emerging victorious on 15 of those 20 seats, leading to the collapse of Chief Minister Hamza Shahbaz's PML-N led coalition government, as their coalition became 7 seats short of a majority.[9] Elahi took oath as the Chief Minister of Punjab on 27 July 2022, leading a PTI-PML(Q) coalition government.
On 12 January 2023, after winning a vote of confidence the night before, Elahi sent a letter to Governor Baligh Ur Rehman, advising him to dissolve the Provincial Assembly. Rehman excused himself from the dissolution process and after 48 hours, the Assembly automatically stood dissolved. Elections must be conducted within 90 days of the dissolution, meaning by or before 14 April 2023.[10][11]
On 22 January 2023, Mohsin Raza Naqvi took oath as the caretaker Chief Minister of Punjab. He was nominated by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) after days of deadlock between the government and the opposition over who to nominate.[12]
On 10 February 2023, after weeks of no announcement of an election date, the Lahore High Court (LHC) ordered the ECP to immediately announce the date for the elections to "ensure that [they] are held not later than ninety days as per the mandate of the Constitution".[13]
On 20 February 2023, the ECP had still not announced the date for the election. Therefore, President Arif Alvi decided to unilaterally appoint 9 April 2023 as the election date.[14]
On 1 March 2023, in a 3-2 split verdict, the Supreme Court ruled that President Alvi's order of appointing an election date was "constitutionally competent", as the Assembly was dissolved without the order of Governor Rehman. However, the verdict further stated that due to the delays in the announcement of the election date, 9 April may not be a feasible election date. Therefore, the ECP was ordered to immediately propose a date with the "minimum possible delay" to the President and after consultation, the latter shall announce a date for the election.[15][16]
As a result of the verdict, on 3 March 2023, the ECP had suggested the dates of 30 April to 7 May to President Alvi and on the same day, the latter announced that the provincial election will be held on 30 April 2023.[17]
On 22 March 2023, in violation of the Supreme Court's verdict, the ECP postponed the provincial election to 8 October 2023, stating that it had arrived at the conclusion that it could not hold the elections "honestly, justly, fairly, in a peaceful manner and in a accordance with the Constitution and law".[18]
On 25 March 2023, Sibtain Khan, the Speaker of the Provincial Assembly of Punjab, filed a constitutional petition on behalf of the PTI against the ECP's decision. Additionally, a contempt of court petition was also filed against the ECP.[19] On 4 April, the Supreme Court ruled that the ECP's decision to postpone the polls was unconstitutional and itself fixed 14 May 2023 as the new date for the election.[20]
Despite the orders of the Supreme Court, the ECP had not conducted the elections on 14 May and had instead petitioned the Supreme Court to review its 4 April decision, claiming that they "[don't] have the authority to give the date of elections".[21]
Schedule
The schedule of the election was announced by the Election Commission of Pakistan on 15 December 2023.[22]
| Sr no | Poll Event | Schedule |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Notice Issued by the Returning Officers | 19 December 2023 |
| 2 | Dates of filing Nomination papers with the Returning Officers by the candidates | 20 December 2023 to 24 December 2023 |
| 3 | Publication of names of the nominated candidates. | 24 December 2023 |
| 4 | Last date of scrutiny of nomination papers by the Returning Officer | 25 December 2023 to 30 December 2023 |
| 5 | Last date of filing appeals against decisions of the Returning Officer rejecting/accepting nomination papers. | 3 January 2024 |
| 6 | Last date for deciding of appeals by the Appellate Tribunal | 10 January 2024 |
| 7 | Publication of revised list of candidates | 11 January 2024 |
| 8 | Last date of withdrawal of candidate and publication of revised list of candidates | 12 January 2024 |
| 9 | Allotment of election symbol to contesting candidates | 13 January 2024 |
| 10 | Date of Polling and Counting of Votes | 8 February 2024 |
Electoral system
The 371 seats of the Punjab Assembly consist of 297 general seats, whose members are elected by the first-past-the-post voting system runs through single-member constituencies. 66 seats are reserved for women and 8 seats are reserved for non-Muslims. The members on these seats are elected through proportional representation based on the total number of general seats secured by each political party.
Campaign
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
Joining of former PML(Q) MPAs
A day after the Assembly was dissolved, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) (PML(Q)) Punjab president and outgoing Chief Minister, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, hinted at a possible merger of the PML(Q) with the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). As a consequence, the president of the PML(Q) and former Prime Minister, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, who is also Elahi's cousin, issued him a show-cause notice and suspended his party membership. On the other hand, the office-bearers of the PML(Q)'s electoral college authorized Elahi to take decisions on behalf of the party, in regards to the potential merger.[23]
On 21 February 2023, after failing in his attempts to merge the PML(Q) with the PTI, Elahi, along with all other nine former PML(Q) MPAs, joined the PTI.[24]
General campaign
The PTI announced that it would start its election campaign on 8 March 2023. Imran Khan, the former Prime Minister and the Chairman of the PTI, stated that party workers will start arranging corner meetings and rallies across all districts of Punjab. Khan also said that he will suggest solutions to problems caused by the incumbent PDM-led federal government.[25][26]
On 8 March 2023, the PTI attempted to start its campaign by taking out a rally from Khan's residence at Zaman Park to Data Darbar. However, just prior to the start of the rally, a ban on public gatherings was imposed in the provincial capital of Lahore and dozens were taken into police custody for violating the ban. Due to the increased violence, Khan called off the rally. One PTI worker, Ali Bilal, also lost his life in the violence, with Khan claiming the Punjab police had murdered Bilal.[27]
On 12 March 2023, Khan once more announced to hold a rally in Lahore but a ban on public gatherings by the PTI was again imposed in the city. The PTI was finally allowed to hold the rally on 13 March 2023 starting from Khan's residence at Zaman Park to Data Darbar. Moreover, in his address to thousands of party workers and rally attendees, Khan announced that the party would hold a grand "power show" at the Minar-e-Pakistan on 19 March.[28][29][30]
On 19 March, the Pakistan Muslim League (Z), a minor political party based in Bahawalnagar, was merged into the PTI by its president, Ijaz-ul-Haq, the son of the former President of Pakistan Zia-Ul-Haq.[31]
On 23 March, the Awami Raj Party, a minor political party based in Muzaffargarh, was merged into the PTI by its chairman and leader Jamshed Dasti.[32]
On 25 March, after two postponements, the PTI held its public rally at the Minar-e-Pakistan. Imran Khan had delivered a lengthy speech where he outlined a 10-point programme which he said would pull Pakistan out of its economic crisis. This programme included policies such as promoting tourism, expanding the minerals sector, reintroducing welfare programs, and enlarging the tax net.[33]
On 20 April, the PTI had finalised a list candidates for most of the 297 constituencies of the Provincial Assembly.[34]
Opinion polls
In the run up to the 2023 Pakistani general elections, various organizations have been carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention throughout Pakistan and the approval rating of the civilian Pakistani government, led by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. The results of such polls are displayed in this section. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 25 July 2018, to the present day.
Punjab Assembly Voting intention
The results in the tables below (excluding the column on undecided voters and non-voters) exclude survey participants who said they wouldn't vote or they didn't know who they would vote for and add up to 100%. In polls that include undecided voters or non-voters, percentages are adjusted upwards in order to make the total equal 100%. Ma Hurgins of error are also adjusted upwards at the same rate to account for the increase.
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | PTI | PML(N) | PPP | TLP | [[List of political parties in Pakistan|Шаблон:Abbr]] | [[Independent politician|Шаблон:Abbr]] | Lead | Sample size |
Undecideds & Non-votersШаблон:Efn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" data-sort-type="number"| | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" data-sort-type="number"| | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" data-sort-type="number" | | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" data-sort-type="number"| | ||||||||
| Republic Policy | November 2023 | [35][36] | 60% | 25% | 15% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color" |35% | N/A | N/AШаблон:Efn | |||
| Republic Policy (Lahore District) | 15 October 2023 | [37][38] | 61% | 22% | 0% | 8% | 9% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color" |39% | 6,850+ | N/AШаблон:Efn | |
| Gallup Pakistan | 30 June 2023 | 49% | 33% | 5% | 7% | 6% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color" |16% | 3,500 | N/AШаблон:Efn | ||
| Iris Communications | 5 April 2023 | 51% | 35% | 6% | 6% | 3% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color" |16% | N/A | N/AШаблон:Efn | ||
| Republic Policy | 25 March 2023 | [39] | 68% | 18% | 3% | 6% | 5% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color" |50% | 86,359 | N/AШаблон:Efn | |
| PA | 14 January 2023 | The Provincial Assembly is dissolved and the scheduled snap election called by ECP is postponed by Central Government to coincide with General Elections on 8 Feb 2024 | |||||||||
| Oct 2022 By-elections | 16 October 2022 | 49.0% | 42.5% | 7.0% | 1.5% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color" |6.3% | 351,267 | 6,483 | |||
| Jul 2022 By-elections | Шаблон:Dts | [40] | 46.8% | 39.5% | 5.54% | 7.85% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color" |7.3% | 2,240,465 | 1.59 | ||
| NA | 11-12 April 2022 | Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion | |||||||||
| IPOR (IRI) | Шаблон:Dts | 34% | 42% | 6% | 2% | 16% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color" |8% | ~1,900 | N/AШаблон:Efn | ||
| Gallup Pakistan | Шаблон:Dts | 35% | 43% | 7% | 3% | 9% | 3% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color" |8% | ~3,100 | 31% | |
| IPOR (IRI) | Шаблон:Dts | 31% | 46% | 5% | 3% | 15% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color" |15% | 2,035 | N/AШаблон:Efn | ||
| IPOR (IRI) | Шаблон:Dts | 26% | 39% | 5% | 2% | 27% | 1% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color" |13% | 1,089 | N/AШаблон:Efn | |
| 2018 Elections | Шаблон:Dts | ECP | 33.6% | 31.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 18.8% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color" |1.9% | 33,218,101 | N/A |
Results
Result by Party
| Party | Popular vote | Seats | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General | Reserved | Total | +/− | |||||||
| Votes | % | ±pp | Contested | Won | Women | Non-Muslims | ||||
| bgcolor="Шаблон:Party color" | | Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf | |||||||||
| bgcolor="Шаблон:Party color" | | Pakistan Muslim League (N) | |||||||||
| Pakistan Muslim League (Q) | ||||||||||
| Pakistan People’s Party | ||||||||||
| bgcolor=Шаблон:Party color | | Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party | |||||||||
| Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan | ||||||||||
| Independents | ||||||||||
| bgcolor="Шаблон:Party color" | | Others | |||||||||
| Total | 100% | 297 | 66 | 8 | 371 | |||||
| Valid votes | ||||||||||
| Invalid votes | ||||||||||
| Votes cast/ turnout | ||||||||||
| Abstentions | ||||||||||
| Registered voters | 73,207,896 | |||||||||
Results by Region
| Region | Seats | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;" |PTI | PML(N) | PML(Q) | PPP | IPP | IND | bgcolor="Шаблон:Party color" |Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Punjab | 25 | |||||||
| Central Punjab | 177 | |||||||
| South Punjab | 95 | |||||||
| Total | 297 |
Results by division
| Division | Seats | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;"|PTI | PML(N) | PML(Q) | PPP | IPP | IND | bgcolor="Шаблон:Party color" |Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rawalpindi | 25 | |||||||
| Gujrat | 19 | |||||||
| Gujranwala | 28 | |||||||
| Sargodha | 13 | |||||||
| Mianwali | 10 | |||||||
| Faisalabad | 38 | |||||||
| Lahore | 52 | |||||||
| Sahiwal | 20 | |||||||
| Multan | 34 | |||||||
| Bahawalpur | 31 | |||||||
| Dera Ghazi Khan | 30 | |||||||
| Total | 297 |
Results by district
| Division | District | Seats | PTI | PML(N) | PML(Q) | PPP | IPP | IND | bgcolor="Шаблон:Party color" |Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rawalpindi | Attock | 5 | |||||||
| Murree | 1 | ||||||||
| Rawalpindi | 14 | ||||||||
| Chakwal | 2 | ||||||||
| Jhelum | 3 | ||||||||
| Gujrat | Gujrat | 8 | |||||||
| Wazirabad | 4 | ||||||||
| Mandi Bahauddin | 4 | ||||||||
| Hafizabad | 3 | ||||||||
| Gujranwala | Sialkot | 10 | |||||||
| Narowal | 5 | ||||||||
| Gujranwala | 11 | ||||||||
| Sargodha | Sargodha | 10 | |||||||
| Khushab | 3 | ||||||||
| Mianwali | Talagang | 2 | |||||||
| Mianwali | 4 | ||||||||
| Bhakkar | 4 | ||||||||
| Faisalabad | Chiniot | 4 | |||||||
| Faisalabad | 21 | ||||||||
| Toba Tek Singh | 6 | ||||||||
| Jhang | 7 | ||||||||
| Lahore | Nankana Sahib | 4 | |||||||
| Sheikhupura | 9 | ||||||||
| Lahore | 30 | ||||||||
| Kasur | 9 | ||||||||
| Sahiwal | Okara | 8 | |||||||
| Pakpattan | 5 | ||||||||
| Sahiwal | 7 | ||||||||
| Multan | Khanewal | 8 | |||||||
| Multan | 13 | ||||||||
| Lodhran | 5 | ||||||||
| Vehari | 8 | ||||||||
| Bahawalpur | Bahawalnagar | 8 | |||||||
| Bahawalpur | 10 | ||||||||
| Rahim Yar Khan | 13 | ||||||||
| Dera Ghazi Khan | Kot Addu | 4 | |||||||
| Muzaffargarh | 8 | ||||||||
| Layyah | 5 | ||||||||
| Taunsa | 3 | ||||||||
| Dera Ghazi Khan | 5 | ||||||||
| Rajanpur | 5 | ||||||||
| Total | 297 | ||||||||
Results by constituency
See also
Notes
References
Шаблон:Punjab, Pakistan elections
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