Английская Википедия:2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:For Шаблон:Use mdy dates <section begin="seninfobox" />Шаблон:Infobox election<section end="seninfobox" /> Шаблон:ElectionsAZ

<section begin="senintro" />The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arizona. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024.^[1] This election is the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a senate election will be held in Arizona after elections in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022.

Incumbent one-term centrist^[2] independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema was first elected as a Democrat in 2018 with 50% of the vote, succeeding retiring Republican Jeff Flake. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022. Sinema has not declared if she will run for re-election, but filed paperwork to do so in April 2023.^[3] U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego is seeking the Democratic nomination, while Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is running for the Republican nomination, as is Kari Lake, the party's 2022 gubernatorial nominee.

Background

The race is considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean, however, most polls show Gallego to be the favorite to win.^[4]^[5]<section end="senintro"/> Arizona is considered to be a formerly red but now purple state at the federal level, voting for Republican Donald Trump by 3.5 percentage points in 2016 and for Democrat Joe Biden by roughly 0.3 percentage point in 2020. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years, with Democrats controlling the other U.S. Senate seat and the governorship after flipping the latter in 2022, while Republicans hold a majority of its U.S. House seats and control the state legislature.

Independents

Candidates

Filed paperwork

Kyrsten Sinema, incumbent U.S. senator (2019–present)^[3]

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Шаблон:Party shading/Independent\|Kyrsten Sinema (I)	$16,334,577	$5,708,681	$10,797,422
Source: Federal Election Commission^[6]

Democratic primary

Шаблон:See also Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. The most prominent dispute was over the Build Back Better Act, specifically the provisions concerning lowering prescription drug prices, as well as her opposition to increasing the minimum wage and to filibuster reform. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her.^[7] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the filibuster in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.

During the congressional consideration of the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022, Sinema did not initially announce support for the bill, doing so only after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision on closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers.^[8] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.^[9]

Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent.^[3]

Candidates

Declared

Andrew Becerra, engineer^[10]
Ruben Gallego, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2015–present) and former state representative (2011-2014)^[11]

Declined

Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix (2019–present)^[12] (endorsed Ruben Gallego)^[13]
Greg Stanton, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2019–present) and former mayor of Phoenix (2012–2018)^[14] (running for re-election)^[15]

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|Ruben Gallego	$9,953,582	$6,225,393	$5,004,763
Source: Federal Election Commission^[6]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Ruben Gallego	Alexander Keller	Other	Undecided
Emerson College	August 2–4, 2023	571 (LV)	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|48%	6%	6%Шаблон:Efn	40%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Kate Gallego	Ruben Gallego	Kathy Hoffman	Regina Romero	Kyrsten Sinema	Greg Stanton	Undecided
Data for Progress (D)	January 21–24, 2022	673 (LV)	± 4.0%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|74%	–	–	16%	–	10%
Data for Progress (D)	January 21–24, 2022	673 (LV)	± 4.0%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|66%	–	–	17%	–	17%
OH Predictive Insights	November 1–8, 2021	229 (RV)	± 6.5%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|47%	–	–	24%	–	29%
				–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|44%	–	24%	–	32%
				–	–	–	–	25%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|47%	28%
Data for Progress (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	October 8–10, 2021	467 (LV)	± 5.0%	9%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|23%	–	9%	19%	13%	Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided\|26%
				Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|60%	–	–	–	25%	–	15%
				–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|62%	–	–	23%	–	15%
				–	–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|55%	26%	–	19%
				–	–	–	–	24%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|59%	17%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor and nominee for governor of Arizona in 2022^[16]
Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sheriff (2017–present)^[17]
George Nicholson, business consultant^[18]
Brian Wright, mechanical engineer^[19]

Filed paperwork

Alan White, investor, U.S. Air Force veteran, and Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020^[20]

Declined

Juan Ciscomani, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2023–present)^[21]
Doug Ducey, 23rd governor of Arizona (2015–2023)^[22]
Abe Hamadeh, former prosecutor in the Maricopa County Attorney's office and nominee for Arizona Attorney General in 2022^[23] (running for U.S. House, endorsed Lake)^[24]^[25]
Blake Masters, former president of the Thiel Foundation, former COO of Thiel Capital, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022^[26] (running for U.S. House, endorsed Lake)^[27]
Karrin Taylor Robson, former member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017–2021) and candidate for governor of Arizona in 2022^[28]
Kelli Ward, former state senator from the 5th district (2013–2015), former chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2019–2023), and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018^[29]

Endorsements

Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|Mark Lamb	$1,082,983	$776,010	$306,973
Source: Federal Election Commission^[6]

Polling

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Abe Hamadeh	Kari Lake	Mark Lamb	Jim Lamon	Blake Masters	Шаблон:Nowrap Robson	Brian Wright	Other	Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights	October 25–31, 2023	1,010 (RV)	± 3.1%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|40%	14%	–	10%	–	4%	–	33%
Emerson College	August 2–4, 2023	667 (LV)	± 3.7%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|42%	11%	2%	7%	–	2%	–	28%
J.L. Partners	April 10–12, 2023	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|38%	8%	3%	7%	10%	–	2%	29%

Шаблон:Hidden end

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[30]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 9, 2023
Inside Elections^[4]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[31]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 9, 2023
Elections Daily^[32]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	May 4, 2023
CNalysis^[33]	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 21, 2023

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Ruben Gallego (D)	Kari Lake (R)	Kyrsten Sinema (I)	Other / Undecided
VCreek/AMG (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	December 1–8, 2023	694 (RV)	–	35%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican\|41%	16%	8%
Tulchin Research (D)	November 13–20, 2023	800 (LV)	± 3.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic \|39%	34%	17%	10%
Noble Predictive Insights	October 25–31, 2023	1,010 (RV)	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic \|39%	33%	29%	0%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	October 25, 2023	N/A	± 4.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|49%	44%	–	7%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	October 25, 2023	N/A	± 4.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic \|41%	37%	17%	5%
Cygnal (R)	October 24–25, 2023	600 (LV)	± 3.96%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic \|46%	43%	–	11%
Cygnal (R)	October 24–25, 2023	600 (LV)	± 3.96%	36%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican \|37%	15%	11%
National Research (R)	October 8–9, 2023	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	44%	44%	–	12%
National Research (R)	October 8–9, 2023	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	33%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican \|37%	19%	10%
Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	October 6–7, 2023	522 (V)	± 4.3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic \|48%	43%	–	9%
Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	October 6–7, 2023	522 (V)	± 4.3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic \|41%	36%	15%	8%
Noble Predictive Insights	July 13–17, 2023	1000 (RV)	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic \|45%	35%	–	20%
Noble Predictive Insights	July 13–17, 2023	1000 (RV)	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic \|34%	25%	26%	15%
Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	April 18–19, 2023	559 (V)	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic \|42%	35%	14%	9%
OH Predictive Insights	January 31 – February 9, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic \|43%	33%	–	24%
OH Predictive Insights	January 31 – February 9, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic \|34%	26%	19%	21%
Normington Petts (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	January 18–23, 2023	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	36%	36%	24%	4%
Normington Petts (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	January 18–23, 2023	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic \|50%	45%	–	5%
Blueprint Polling (D)	January 5–8, 2023	618 (V)	± 3.9%	32%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican \|36%	14%	18%
Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	December 21, 2022	650 (V)	± 3.8%	40%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican \|41%	13%	6%
				Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic \|48%	47%	–	5%
				–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican \|42%	39%	19%

Шаблон:Hidden begin

Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Ruben Gallego (D)	Doug Ducey (R)	Kyrsten Sinema (I)	Undecided
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights	January 31 – February 9, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|38%	34%	–	28%
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights	January 31 – February 9, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|32%	27%	17%	23%
Normington Petts (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	January 18–23, 2023	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|37%	31%	27%	5%

Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Ruben Gallego (D)	Blake Masters (R)	Kyrsten Sinema (I)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	October 6–7, 2023	522 (V)	± 4.3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|41%	31%	17%	11%
Noble Predictive Insights	July 13–17, 2023	1000 (RV)	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|44%	36%	–	20%
Noble Predictive Insights	July 13–17, 2023	1000 (RV)	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|32%	24%	28%	16%
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights	January 31 – February 9, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|43%	32%	–	26%
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights	January 31 – February 9, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|33%	24%	22%	21%

Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Ruben Gallego (D)	Karrin Taylor Robson (R)	Kyrsten Sinema (I)	Undecided
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights	January 31 – February 9, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|36%	32%	–	32%
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights	January 31 – February 9, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|31%	24%	21%	25%

Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Ruben Gallego (D)	Mark Lamb (R)	Kyrsten Sinema (I)	Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights	October 25-31, 2023	1,010 (RV)	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic \|36%	32%	32%	0%
Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	October 6–7, 2023	522 (V)	± 4.3%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|40%	31%	16%	13%
Emerson College	August 2–4, 2023	1,337 (RV)	± 2.6%	42%	42%	–	16%
Emerson College	August 2–4, 2023	1,337 (RV)	± 2.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|36%	29%	21%	15%
Noble Predictive Insights	July 13–17, 2023	1000 (RV)	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|40%	36%	–	24%
Noble Predictive Insights	July 13–17, 2023	1000 (RV)	± 3.1%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|33%	25%	24%	18%
Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	April 18–19, 2023	559 (V)	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|43%	33%	15%	9%

Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Ruben Gallego (D)	Jim Lamon (R)	Kyrsten Sinema (I)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua	April 18–19, 2023	559 (V)	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|43%	27%	16%	14%

Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Ruben Gallego (D)	Brian Wright (R)	Kyrsten Sinema (I)	Undecided
Emerson College	August 2–4, 2023	1,337 (RV)	± 2.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|41%	38%	–	21%
Emerson College	August 2–4, 2023	1,337 (RV)	± 2.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic\|37%	25%	26%	12%

Шаблон:Hidden end

Notes

Шаблон:Notelist

Partisan clients

Шаблон:Notelist-ua

References

Шаблон:Reflist

External links

Official campaign websites

Шаблон:2024 United States elections

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Английская Википедия:2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

Содержание

Background

Independents

Candidates

Filed paperwork

Endorsements

Fundraising

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Fundraising

Polling

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Filed paperwork

Declined

Endorsements

Fundraising

Polling

General election

Predictions

Polling

Notes

References

External links

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