Английская Википедия:2024 United States Senate election in Maryland

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The 2024 United States Senate election in Maryland will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Maryland. The Democratic and Republican primary elections will be held on May 14, 2024.

Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Ben Cardin was reelected in 2018 with 64.9% of the vote. On May 1, 2023, he announced that he would not be seeking reelection to a fourth term in office.

Background

Шаблон:See also At the federal and state level, Maryland is a deeply blue state and one of the most reliably Democratic states in the nation, with Joe Biden carrying it by 33 points in the 2020 Presidential Election. Elections in Maryland are dominated by the Baltimore metropolitan area and the D.C. suburbs. Democrats currently occupy both Senate seats, 7 out of 8 House seats, supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature, and all statewide offices.

Republicans have not won Maryland's Class 1 seat since 1970. Analysts consider this seat to be a safe hold for Democrats despite Cardin's retirement. As such, the Democratic primary is considered tantamount to election in this race.

Democratic primary

Campaign

Cardin speaking on a stage with a "My Friend Ben Cardin for U.S. Senate" logo on a projector in the background

Ben Cardin in 2023

In the early months of 2023, Cardin's low fundraising and cash-on-hand numbers led to speculation that he would retire. Several potential candidates, including Angela Alsobrooks and David Trone, began hiring campaign advisers in anticipation of Cardin's possible retirement, which he announced on May 1, 2023, ending a political career that spanned over 50 years.

The following day, at-large Montgomery County Councilmember Will Jawando announced that he would run for Senate. He was joined by Trone and Alsobrooks later in the week. Upon Trone's entry into the race, the Democratic primary quickly developed into a contest between money and endorsements, with Alsobrooks receiving major endorsements from the Maryland Democratic establishment and Trone self-financing his campaign with $9.7 million in personal loans, which he says protects him from political influence, and suggesting that he could spend as much as $50 million on the race. Alsobrooks and Trone, who have been viewed by media outlets as the frontrunners in the race, have faced controversies that could damage their campaigns: Alsobrooks' record as a prosecutor has been scrutinized by progressive-media outlet The Intercept, while Trone has faced criticism for his campaign contributions toward Republican politicians through Total Wine & More. On the campaign trail, Alsobrooks has criticized Trone for these contributions and for spending heavily in the race, while Trone has characterized Alsobrooks as a "career politician" with an insufficient record on reproductive rights, and criticized her for not including any Latinos in her cabinet.

Файл:David Trone and Angela Alsobrooks (cropped).jpg

Angela Alsobrooks (left) and David Trone (right) in 2023

During the Democratic primary, Jawando and Trone have sought to present themselves as progressives and political outsiders, pointing to their careers and political records, despite Trone's record in Congress being more aligned with its moderate members. Alsobrooks, meanwhile, has emphasized "kitchen-table" issues such as community safety and health care in her campaign while also focusing on her political career. Candidates are expected to campaign heavily in the Baltimore metropolitan area, which is seen as a key battleground in the Democratic primary.

Jawando dropped out of the race on October 20, 2023, and later endorsed Alsobrooks, leaving a likely contest between Alsobrooks and Trone in the Democratic primary.

Candidates

Declared

• Angela Alsobrooks, Prince George's County Executive (2018–present)
• Marcellus Crews, tech executive
• Juan Dominguez, former vice president of Breezeline and former Republican Bogota, New Jersey borough councilor (1995–1998)
• Brian Frydenborg, freelance journalist and research consultant
• Jerome Segal, research scholar, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018, candidate for Governor of Maryland in 2022, and Bread and Roses Party nominee for president in 2020
• Steve Seuferer, IT professional and U.S. Air Force veteran
• David Trone, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2019–present)
• Andrew Jaye Wildman, writer and perennial candidate

Filed paperwork

• Scottie Griffin, write-in candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022

Publicly expressed interest

• Jon Cardin, state delegate from the 11th district (2003–2015; 2019–present), nephew of incumbent U.S. Senator Ben Cardin, and candidate for attorney general in 2014

Withdrawn

• Will Jawando, at-large Montgomery County councilor (2018–present) and candidate for Шаблон:Ushr in 2016 (endorsed Alsobrooks)

Declined

• Ben Cardin, incumbent U.S. senator (2007–present)
• Kweisi Mfume, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (1987–1996; 2020–present), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2006, and former president of the NAACP (1996–2004) (endorsed Alsobrooks)
• Wes Moore, Governor of Maryland (2023–present) (endorsed Alsobrooks)
• Johnny Olszewski, Baltimore County Executive (2018–present) and former state delegate from the 6th district (2006–2015) (endorsed Alsobrooks)
• Tom Perez, former chair of the Democratic National Committee (2017–2021), former U.S. Secretary of Labor (2013–2017), former Maryland Secretary of Labor (2007–2009), and candidate for Governor of Maryland in 2022
• Jamie Raskin, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2017–present) (running for re-election)
• John Sarbanes, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2007–present) and son of former U.S. Senator Paul Sarbanes (endorsed Alsobrooks)

Debates and forums

A straw poll was held during the Maryland Democratic Party's forum on the Eastern Shore, which was won by Alsobrooks, who received 125 votes to Trone's 98 votes and Dominguez's 15 votes.

2024 Maryland Democratic Senate primary debates

Шаблон:Abbr	Date	Host	Moderator	Link	Participants
Шаблон:Colors Participant  Шаблон:Colors Absent  Шаблон:Colors Non-invitee  Шаблон:Colors InviteeШаблон:Color box Withdrawn
					Angela Alsobrooks	Juan Dominguez	David Trone
1	Oct 24, 2023	Maryland Federation of NARFE	Barbara Cuffee	N/A	A	A	Шаблон:Yes
2	Nov 3, 2023	Maryland Democratic Party	Sam Shoge	N/A	Шаблон:Yes	Шаблон:Yes	Шаблон:Yes
3	Dec 3, 2023	Latino Democrats of Prince George's County	Patricia Villone William Ford	TBD	Шаблон:Yes	Шаблон:Yes	Шаблон:Yes

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Angela Alsobrooks (D)	$3,256,404	$1,150,273	$2,106,131
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Juan Dominguez (D)	$248,135Шаблон:Efn	$210,412	$37,723
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Will Jawando (D)Шаблон:Efn	$751,524	$429,191	$322,334
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|David Trone (D)	$9,978,838Шаблон:Efn	$9,745,376	$436,568
Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin Шаблон:Nowrap	Angela Alsobrooks (D)	David Trone (D)	Other	Undecided
Hickman AnalyticsШаблон:Efn-ua	November 27–30, 2023	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	34%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|41%	1%	25%
Perry, White, Ross & Jacobson LLC	Mid-November 2023	813 (LV)	–	31%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|36%	–	18%
RMG ResearchШаблон:Efn-ua	November 15–17, 2023	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	25%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45%	5%Шаблон:Efn	25%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Ray Bly, small business owner, U.S. Army veteran, and perennial candidate
• Robin Ficker, former state delegate (1979–1983) and perennial candidate
• Lorie Friend, nurse and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022
• Christopher Puleo, tech executive
• John Teichert, retired U.S. Air Force Brigadier General

Publicly expressed interest

• Kevin Hornberger, state delegate from district 35B (2015–present) (decision expected around the end of 2023)

Declined

• Andy Harris, U.S. representative for Maryland's 1st congressional district (2011–present) (running for re-election)
• Larry Hogan, former governor of Maryland (2015–2023)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Robin Ficker (R)	$182,917Шаблон:Efn	$181,248	$1,669
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Lorie Friend (R)	$627	$3,220	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission

Third-party and independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

• Emmanuel Osuchukwu, security guard (Independent)

Withdrawn

• Moshe Landman (Green), attorney, mortgage broker, and nominee for SD-39 in 2022 (running for U.S. House)

Declined

• Cal Ripken Jr., former professional baseball player with the Baltimore Orioles

Debates and forums

Osuchukwu attended the NARFE Maryland Federation forum on October 24, 2023.

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 9, 2023
Inside Elections	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 9, 2023
Elections Daily	Шаблон:USRaceRating	May 4, 2023
CNalysis	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 21, 2023

Polling

Angela Alsobrooks vs. Larry Hogan

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Angela Alsobrooks (D)	Larry Hogan (R)	Undecided
Perry, White, Ross & Jacobson LLC	Mid-November 2023	813 (LV)	–	36%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|42%	–

David Trone vs. Larry Hogan

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	David Trone (D)	Larry Hogan (R)	Undecided
Perry, White, Ross & Jacobson LLC	Mid-November 2023	813 (LV)	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49%	34%	–

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

• Angela Alsobrooks (D) for U.S. Senate
• Marcellus Crews (D) for U.S. Senate
• Juan Dominguez (D) for U.S. Senate
• Robin Ficker (R) for U.S. Senate
• Brian Frydenborg (D) for U.S. Senate
• Jerome Segal (D) for U.S. Senate
• John Teichert (R) for U.S. Senate
• David Trone (D) for U.S. Senate