Английская Википедия:2024 United States Senate election in Missouri
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:For Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsMO The 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Incumbent Republican Josh Hawley was first elected in 2018 with 51.4% of the vote, unseating Democrat Claire McCaskill. He is running for re-election to a second term in office. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024.[1]
Background
From 1904 to 2004, Missouri's electoral votes always went to the winner of the presidential race, with only one exception: in 1956, during the landslide re-election of President Dwight Eisenhower, Missouri went to Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson. The state's accuracy in voting with the national consensus includes the highly competitive elections of 1960, 1976, and 2000.Шаблон:Cn
Missouri is no longer thought of as a perennial swing state, and is today considered to be a strongly red state. Since 1964, the only three Democrats it has backed have been Southerners: Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. In 2008, Missouri narrowly voted for the losing candidate, Republican John McCain, despite a sizable electoral college win for Democrat Barack Obama. In 2012, Missouri favored losing candidate Mitt Romney by nearly 10 percentage points, despite another significant victory for Obama in the rest of the country. In 2016 and 2020, Missouri again voted strongly Republican, this time for Donald Trump by over 15 points, despite Trump losing the latter election. This marked the third time in four presidential elections that Missouri supported a losing Republican. Missouri has not supported any Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996, despite there being three subsequent elections won by Democrats.Шаблон:Cn
In more recent years, Republicans have experienced significant electoral success in the state. In 2016, the Republican Party secured victories in key statewide positions, including Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer. Building on this momentum, in 2022, Scott Fitzpatrick successfully won the position of Auditor, a seat previously held by Democrat Nicole Galloway. Notably, Nicole Galloway remains the last Democrat to have been elected to a statewide position in the state.Шаблон:Cn
The most recent Democrat to secure election to the Senate from Missouri was Claire McCaskill. She sought a third term in 2018, facing off against Josh Hawley, but was ultimately defeated by a margin of 5.8%.Шаблон:Cn
Most pollsters categorize this race as a secure one for the Republican Party.[2][3][4][5]
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Josh Hawley, incumbent U.S. senator[6]
Endorsements
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Josh Hawley (R) | $17,289,600 | $13,019,357 | $4,745,758 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[7] | |||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- December Harmon, member of the Columbia Police Review Board[8]
- Lucas Kunce, nonprofit executive, retired U.S. Marine Corps officer, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[9]
- Karla May, state senator (2019–present)[10]
Withdrawn
- Wesley Bell, St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney (running for U.S. House)[11]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements boxШаблон:Endorsements box
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Lucas Kunce (D) | $3,879,768 | $2,167,676 | $1,719,373 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|December Harmon (D) | $9,293 | $7,993 | $1,299 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[7] | |||
Independents
Declared
- Jared Young, payroll services executive[12]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[2] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[3] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[4] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 9, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[5] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[13] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 21, 2023 |
Polling
- Josh Hawley vs. Lucas Kunce
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Josh Hawley (R) |
Lucas Kunce (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Show Me Victories (D) | October 26-31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% | 42% | 4% | 8% |
| Emerson College | October 1-4, 2023 | 491 (RV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 32% | 5% | 17% |
| GQR Research (D)Шаблон:Efn-ua | August 16–19, 2023 | 863 (LV) | ± 3.34% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44% | 43% | – | 12% |
- Josh Hawley vs. Wesley Bell
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Josh Hawley (R) |
Wesley Bell (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | October 1-4, 2023 | 491 (RV) | ± 4.4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44% | 34% | 5% | 17% |
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
External links
- Official campaign websites
- December Harmon (D) for Senate
- Josh Hawley (R) for Senate
- Lucas Kunce (D) for Senate
- Jared Young (I) for Senate
Шаблон:2024 United States elections
