Английская Википедия:2024 United States Senate election in Montana

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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:For Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsMT The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term in office. This race is one of three Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 in a state Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, alongside Ohio and West Virginia. Tester's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024. Primary elections will take place on June 4, 2024. Шаблон:Toclimit

Background

Montana is a strongly red state at the federal level, voting for Republican presidential candidates in each election starting in 1996, when Bob Dole beat Bill Clinton by nearly 3 percentage points in a three-way race with Ross Perot. Since then, GOP candidates have won the White House race in the State by double digits in every race except in 2008.

In the most recent presidential election, in 2020, Donald Trump beat Joe Biden in Montana by 56.92% to 40.55%. For all these reasons, the race is expected to be one of the most competitive of the 2024 cycle, as Tester is broadly popular with Montana voters despite the state's partisan lean, and Montana's historical inclination to ticket-split.

On April 4, 2023, Montana's State Senate passed a bill to institute a top-two primary system, but only for the 2024 U.S. Senate race. The bill's sponsor, Republican Greg Hertz, said it would require the winner of the 2024 Senate race to receive a majority of the vote. Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester won with a plurality of the vote in his 2006 and 2012 Senate campaigns, though he won a majority in 2018. Both Democrats and Libertarians alleged the bill was intended to prevent the Libertarian Party from placing a nominee on the general election ballot in the Senate race who could potentially pull votes away from the Republican nominee, with Democratic state senator Ryan Lynch calling it a "partisan power grab." FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich questioned whether the Libertarian Party had truly cost Republicans the 2006 and 2012 races, pointing out that Republicans would have needed to win the Libertarian vote overwhelmingly in order to beat Tester in a one-on-one race and that many Libertarians might not have voted in the race at all without a Libertarian on the ballot.

The New York Times reported that the bill was the brainchild of Montana's other senator Steve Daines, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and that his allies urged Republican state senators to support it; one legislator said they were outright told by Republican officials that the bill was intended to weaken Tester. After the bill received backlash, Hertz introduced an amendment to make the use of a top-two primary for U.S. Senate elections permanent rather than sunsetting it after the 2024 race. The Montana House of Representatives State Administration Committee tabled the bill on April 19. An attempt to revive the bill failed, and the legislature adjourned without passing it, conclusively ending the push for a top-two primary.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Jon Tester, incumbent U.S. senator (2007–present)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Jon Tester (D)	$19,654,678	$7,131,531	$13,003,720
Source: Federal Election Commission

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Brad Johnson, former chair of the Montana Public Service Commission (2015–2023) and former Montana Secretary of State (2005–2009)
• Tim Sheehy, founder and CEO of Bridger Aerospace and retired Navy SEAL

Publicly expressed interest

• Matt Rosendale, U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr (2023–present) and at-large district (2021–2023); nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018

Withdrew

• Jeremy Mygland, businessman (endorsed Rosendale, running for state senate)

Declined

• Greg Gianforte, Governor of Montana (2021–present) (endorsed Sheehy)
• Ryan Zinke, U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr (2023–present) and at-large district (2015–2017); former U.S. secretary of the interior (2017–2019) (endorsed Sheehy, running for re-election)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Tim Sheehy (R)	$2,872,386	$1,748,408	$1,123,978
Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Russell Fagg	Brad Johnson	Matt Rosendale	Tim Sheehy	Corey Stapleton	Ryan Zinke	Other/Undecided
co/efficient (R)	November 12–14, 2023	888 (LV)	± 3.28%	–	–	24%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|40%	–	–	36%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	October 23–25, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	–	6%	35%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|38%	–	–	21%Шаблон:Efn
				0%	0%	41%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|44%	–	–	15%
J.L. Partners	August 12–17, 2023	418 (LV)	?	–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52%	21%	–	–	28%
Public Policy Polling (D)	June 19–20, 2023	510 (LV)	± 4.3%	–	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|64%	10%	–	–	26%
OnMessage Inc. (R)	February 18–21, 2023	600 (LV)Шаблон:Efn	± 4.0%	2%	–	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|36%	2%	6%	26%	28%

Libertarian primary

Declared

• Sid Daoud, Kalispell city councilor

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 30, 2023
Inside Elections	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 9, 2023
Elections Daily	Шаблон:USRaceRating	May 4, 2023
CNalysis	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 21, 2023

Polling

Jon Tester vs. Tim Sheehy

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Jon Tester (D)	Tim Sheehy (R)	Other	Undecided
Emerson College	October 1–4, 2023	447 (RV)	± 4.6%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|39%	35%	6%	21%
J.L. Partners	August 12–17, 2023	741 (LV)	?	42%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46%	–	12%

Jon Tester vs. Greg Gianforte

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Jon Tester (D)	Greg Gianforte (R)	Undecided
Political Company (R)	January 30 – February 1, 2023	534 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	45%	10%

Jon Tester vs. Matt Rosendale

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Jon Tester (D)	Matt Rosendale (R)	Other	Undecided
J.L. Partners	August 12–17, 2023	741 (LV)	?	43%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46%	–	11%
OnMessage Inc. (R)	February 18–21, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46%	5%	7%
Political Company (R)	January 30 – February 1, 2023	534 (LV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45%	40%	–	15%

Jon Tester vs. Ryan Zinke

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Jon Tester (D)	Ryan Zinke (R)	Undecided
Political Company (R)	January 30 – February 1, 2023	534 (LV)	± 4.0%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|46%	40%	14%

External links

Official campaign websites

• Sid Daoud (L) for Senate
• Brad Johnson (R) for Senate
• Tim Sheehy (R) for Senate
• Jon Tester (D) for Senate