Английская Википедия:2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:For Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:ElectionsWV
The 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia. Primary elections will take place on May 14, 2024.[1]
Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Manchin (first elected in 2010) initially filed paperwork for the 2024 election, but announced in November 2023 that he will not seek a third full term in office.[2] Шаблон:Toclimit
Background
West Virginia was mainly a Democratic stronghold from the New Deal through the 1990s, but like much of rural Appalachia, the state has rapidly swung towards the Republican Party in the years since.[3] It is now staunchly Republican and considered a deeply red state, giving Donald Trump a 38.93 percentage point margin of victory in the 2020 presidential election (winning every county), his second-strongest performance in the nation.[4] However, Manchin had continued to see electoral success through the 2010s, positioning himself as a centrist to conservative Democrat with strong ties to the state.[5]
The Republican Party has identified the contest as a top priority in the 2024 election cycle.[6] Notable Republicans who have announced candidacies for the seat include U.S. Representative Alex Mooney[7] and Governor Jim Justice.[8]
Due to the state's heavy partisan lean, the narrow margin by which Manchin was re-elected in 2018 (even amidst a national Democratic wave), and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot, Republicans were favored to win over the seat even if the incumbent sought reelection.[9] After Jim Justice announced his bid for the seat in April 2023, Elections Daily in labeled this race as "Safe Republican" due to his strong polling advantage against Manchin.[10] Since Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets have rated this seat as a near-certain flip to GOP control. The last time a Republican won this Class 1 Senate seat was in 1956.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Zachary Shrewsbury, political organizer and U.S. Marine Corps veteran[11][12]
Publicly expressed interest
- Glenn Elliot, Mayor of Wheeling, West Virginia (2016–present)[13][14][15][16] (decision expected in December or January)
Potential
- Ben Salango, Kanawha County commissioner and nominee for governor in 2020[17]
Declined
- Joe Manchin, incumbent U.S. senator (2010–present)Шаблон:R
- Steve Williams, mayor of Huntington (2013–present) and former state delegate (1986–1994) (running for governor)[18]
Endorsements
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[19] | |||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Jim Justice, 36th governor of West Virginia (2017–present)[8]
- Zane Lawhorn, optometrist and perennial candidate[20]
- Bryan McKinney, sales manager[20]
- Alex Mooney, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2015–present)[7]
Withdrew
Declined
- Carol Miller, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2019–present)[23][24] (running for re-election)[25]
- Patrick Morrisey, West Virginia Attorney General (2013–present) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for governor)[26]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Jim Justice |
Zane Lawhorn |
Bryan McKinney |
Alex Mooney |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Pulse Research & Polling (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua |
November 13–14, 2023 | 414 (LV) | ± 4.8% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46% | 1% | 2% | 20% | 22% |
| Fabrizio, Lee and AssociatesШаблон:Efn-ua | September 11–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican |62% | – | – | 23% | 15% |
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|58% | – | – | 26% | 16% |
| Orion StrategiesШаблон:Efn-ua | June 17–20, 2023 | 651 (LV) | ± 6.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|56% | – | – | 19% | 25% |
| ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 796 (RV) | ± 3.7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|53% | – | – | 12% | 35% |
| co/efficient | April 24–25, 2023 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | – | – | 17% | 38% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Jim Justice |
Alex Mooney |
Patrick Morrisey |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Public Affairs (R) | March 14-17, 2023 | 360 (LV) | ± 5.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% | 21% | 10% | 24% |
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LV)Шаблон:Efn | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|53% | 16% | 21% | 8% |
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Jim Justice (R) | $1,547,997 | $380,640 | $1,167,356 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Alex Mooney (R) | $2,324,446 | $746,431 | $1,578,014 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[19] | |||
Third-party and independent candidates
Independents
Declared
- Michael Sigmon[27]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[28] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[29] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[30] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 9, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[10] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[31] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 21, 2023 |
Polling
- Joe Manchin vs. Jim Justice
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Joe Manchin (D) |
Jim Justice (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | September 24–26, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 28% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|41% | 31% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | September 24–26, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43%Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|49% | 8% |
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51% | 11% |
| ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 957 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 32% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|54% | 14%Шаблон:Efn |
| co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 29% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|43% | 28% |
| Tarrance Group (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52% | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 32% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|47% | 21% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|41% | 37% | 22% |
- Joe Manchin vs. Alex Mooney
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Joe Manchin (D) |
Alex Mooney (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Oct 1-4, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|37% | 31% | 31% | |
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|45% | 41% | 14% | |
| ECU Center for Survey Research | May 22–23, 2023 | 957 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|41% | 1% | 18% |
| co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|36% | 30% | – | 34% |
| Tarrance Group (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|55% | 40% | – | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45% | 12% | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|49% | 28% | 16% | 7% |
- Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Joe Manchin (D) |
Patrick Morrisey (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|52% | 42% | – | 6% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|50% | 9% | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|50% | 29% | 7% | 16% |
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
External links
- Official campaign websites
Шаблон:2024 United States elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
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- ↑ https://www.newsandsentinel.com/news/local-news/2023/12/in-a-blue-funk-manchins-retirement-from-u-s-senate-creates-democratic-hole-on-west-virginia-ballot/
- ↑ https://www.weirtondailytimes.com/news/local-news/2023/12/manchins-u-s-senate-retirement-creates-democratic-hole-on-ballot/
- ↑ https://www.theintelligencer.net/news/top-headlines/2023/12/wheeling-mayor-glenn-elliott-considering-run-for-u-s-senate/
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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- ↑ {{cite news |work=Ballotpedia |access-date=December 6, 2023 |url=https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2024
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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