Английская Википедия:2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

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The 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Wisconsin. Incumbent two-term Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin was re-elected with 55.4% of the vote in 2018. Baldwin announced she would be running for re-election on April 12, 2023. No Republican has won this Class 1 senate seat since Joseph McCarthy in 1952. Primary elections will take place on August 13, 2024.

Background

Wisconsin is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since there is both a Republican and Democratic senator representing the state. Wisconsin was also a top battleground state in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The state backed the Republican candidate in 2016, and then the Democratic candidate in 2020, both by less than a percentage point and only a plurality.

Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans control both chambers of the Wisconsin Legislature and hold a supermajority in Wisconsin's U.S. House delegation. However, Democrats have seen success in statewide races, including in 2022, where incumbent governor Tony Evers overperformed expectations and won reelection to a second term, despite polls showing his Republican challenger as the slight favorite.

Baldwin was first elected in 2012, defeating former governor Tommy Thompson by 6 percentage points and was re-elected in 2018 by 11 percentage points.

This race had originally been expected to be highly competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean, with early-cycle analysis judging Baldwin to be only a slight favorite to win reelection. However, as of September 2023 only two relatively obscure candidates had filed to enter the Republican primary, while candidates that have greater name recognition have indicated they would not attempt to challenge Baldwin. After Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher in particular decided against running, by summer 2023 Republican hopes to capture the seat were characterized as "desperate" and a "tough bid .. an uphill climb," with an unnamed Wisconsin GOP strategist sharing “Tammy Baldwin is good. Republicans have always underestimated her in the past, kind of the same way Democrats underestimate Ron Johnson.”

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Tammy Baldwin, incumbent U.S. senator

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Tammy Baldwin (D)	$17,960,691	$11,248,113	$6,854,771
Source: Federal Election Commission

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Stacey Klein, Trempealeau County supervisor
• Rejani Raveendran, chair of University of Wisconsin–Stevens Point College Republicans
• Patrick Schaefer-Wicke, retired U.S. Army Reserve sergeant major

Publicly expressed interest

• David Clarke, former Democratic Milwaukee County sheriff (2002–2017)
• Eric Hovde, hedge fund manager and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012
• Scott Mayer, staffing executive and former Indy Racing League driver

Potential

• Roger Roth, former state senator (2015–2023), nephew of former U.S. representative Toby Roth, and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin in 2022

Declined

• Mike Gallagher, U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr (2017–present) (running for re-election)
• Bryan Steil, U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr (2019–present)
• Tom Tiffany, U.S. representative from Шаблон:Ushr (2020–present) (running for re-election)
• Scott Walker, former governor of Wisconsin (2011–2019)

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	David Clarke	Mike Gallagher	Eric Hovde	Scott Mayer	Tom Tiffany	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)	December 11–12, 2023	503 (LV)	± 4.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52%	–	7%	6%	–	36%
				Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|51%	–	10%	–	–	39%
				Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|52%	–	–	6%	–	42%
Public Policy Polling (D)	June 5–6, 2023	507 (LV)	± 4.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|40%	20%	3%	–	10%	27%
				Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|45%	26%	–	–	–	29%

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Declared

• Phil Anderson, realtor, former chair of the Wisconsin Libertarian Party, and perennial candidate

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Шаблон:Party shading/Libertarian|Phil Anderson (L)	$11,019	$5,093	$5,926
Source: Federal Election Commission

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Шаблон:USRaceRating	May 3, 2023
Inside Elections	Шаблон:USRaceRating	July 28, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Шаблон:USRaceRating	January 24, 2023
Elections Daily	Шаблон:USRaceRating	May 4, 2023
CNalysis	Шаблон:USRaceRating	November 21, 2023

Polling

Tammy Baldwin vs. Mike Gallagher

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Tammy Baldwin (D)	Mike Gallagher (R)	Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	May 23–25, 2023	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|47%	46%	7%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Generic Democrat	Generic Republican	Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	May 23–25, 2023	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	42%	Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|46%	12%

Tammy Baldwin vs. generic opponent

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample sizeШаблон:Efn	Margin of error	Tammy Baldwin (D)	Generic Opponent	Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)Шаблон:Efn-ua	May 23–25, 2023	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	40%	Шаблон:Party shading/Independent|43%	17%

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

• Tammy Baldwin (D) for Senate
• Phil Anderson (L) for Senate