Английская Википедия:2024 United States Senate elections in California
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:For Шаблон:Pp-semi Шаблон:Use mdy dates Шаблон:Infobox election Шаблон:Elections in California sidebar
The 2024 United States Senate elections in California will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of California. There will be two ballot items for the same Class 1 seat: a special election to fill the seat for the final weeks of the 118th United States Congress (ending on January 3, 2025), and a general election for a full term that starts on January 3, 2025, starting in the 119th United States Congress. California uses a nonpartisan blanket primary, in which all candidates regardless of party affiliation appear on the same primary ballot and the two highest-placing candidates advance to the general election. Primary elections will take place on March 5, 2024.[1]
Incumbent Senator Laphonza Butler was appointed after fellow Democrat Dianne Feinstein died in office while serving her 5th full term, having already announced her retirement. Feinstein was first elected in a 1992 special election, defeating appointed Republican incumbent John Seymour to complete the term of Pete Wilson, who resigned to become California's governor.
Two Democratic U.S. representatives, Katie Porter of Irvine and Adam Schiff of Los Angeles, entered the race before Feinstein announced her retirement.[2][3] A third, Barbara Lee of Oakland, declared her campaign on February 21, 2023.[4] On October 19, 2023, Butler announced that she would not run for a full term.[5] This will be the first open race for the Class I seat in California since 1982.
Candidates
Democratic Party
Declared
- Akinyemi Agbede, mathematician and perennial candidate[6]
- Jacob Farmos, surf shop manager[7]
- Sepi Gilani, UC San Diego professor and surgeon[8]
- Zafar Inam, engineer[9]
- Barbara Lee, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (1998–present)[4]
- Christina Pascucci, former KTLA-TV news anchor[10]
- David Peterson, tech professional and perennial candidate[7]
- Douglas Pierce, cold case investigator[6]
- Katie Porter, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2019–present)[2]
- Perry Pound, investment firm CEO[7]
- Raji Rab, commercial pilot and perennial candidate[11]
- Jessica Resendez, digital content editor[11]
- John Rose, office manager and political children's book author[7]
- Adam Schiff, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2001–present)[3]
Filed paperwork
- Dominick Dorothy[12]
- Jeremy Fennell[13]
- Rommell Montenegro, research analyst[14]
- Alexander Norbash[15]
Withdrew
- Denard Ingram, psychologist and social worker (running for U.S. House)[16]
- Lexi Reese, investor and former Google executive[17][18]
Declined
- Rob Bonta, attorney general of California (2021–present)[19] (endorsed Lee and Porter)[20]
- London Breed, mayor of San Francisco (2018–present)[21] (endorsed Lee, running for re-election)[22][23]
- Laphonza Butler, incumbent U.S. senator (2023–present)[5]
- Ro Khanna, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2017–present) (endorsed Lee)[24]
- Eleni Kounalakis, lieutenant governor of California (2019–present) (running for governor in 2026)[25]
- Fiona Ma, California State Treasurer (2019–present)[26] (endorsed Lee, running for lieutenant governor in 2026)[27][28]
- Holly Mitchell, Los Angeles County supervisor (2020–present)[29] (running for re-election)[30]
- Gavin Newsom, governor of California (2019–present)[31][32]
- Libby Schaaf, former mayor of Oakland (2015–2023) (endorsed Lee)[22]
- Eric Swalwell, U.S. representative for Шаблон:Ushr (2013–present) and candidate for president in 2020[32] (running for re-election)[33]
- Oprah Winfrey, talk show host and media proprietor[34]
Republican Party
Declared
- James Bradley, healthcare executive, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 and 2022, and runner-up for Шаблон:Ushr in 2020[7]
- Eric Early, attorney, perennial candidate, and runner-up for California's 28th congressional district in 2020[35]
- Denice Gary-Pandol, educator[36]
- Steve Garvey, former professional baseball player for the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres[37]
- Jehu Hand, natural burial business owner, disbarred attorney, and convicted felon[6]
- Zakaria Kortam, social media company CEO and college student[6]
- Roxanne Lawler, contract administrator[11]
- Sarah Sun Liew, businesswoman, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022, and candidate for Шаблон:Ushr in 2020[6]
- Jonathan Reiss, multimedia consultant and candidate for Шаблон:Ushr in 2022[6]
- James Shuster, retired construction worker[7]
- Stefan Simchowitz, art dealer[38]
Filed paperwork
- Peter Liu, entrepreneur and candidate for Mayor of Oakland in 2018[39][40]
- Barack Obama Mandela, attorney[41][42]
Declined
- Lanhee Chen, Stanford University professor and runner-up for California State Controller in 2022[43]
- Larry Elder, radio host, former candidate for president in 2024 and candidate for Governor of California in the 2021 recall election[44]
- Kevin Faulconer, former mayor of San Diego (2014–2020) and candidate for Governor of California in the 2021 recall election[45][32] (running for San Diego County Board of Supervisors)[46]
No party preference
Declared
- Fepbrina Keivaulqe Autiameineire, nonprofit director[11]
- Frank Ferreira, network engineer and U.S. Navy veteran[6]
- Mark RuzonШаблон:Efn, California chair for the American Solidarity Party and write-in candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[7]
Filed paperwork
- Joe Sosinski, patent attorney[47]
Declined
- Dwayne Johnson, actor and businessman[32]
- Arnold Schwarzenegger,Шаблон:Efn former governor of California (2003–2011)[48]
Primary election
Campaign
Schiff, Porter, and Lee declare
Media sources speculated for years that Dianne Feinstein might choose not to seek reelection in 2024 or resign before the end of her term, owing to her age, reports that her cognitive state was declining, and her decision not to take the position of Senate president pro tempore in the 118th Congress, third in line for the presidency, even though she would customarily have been offered the role as the most senior member of the majority caucus. There was also speculation that Feinstein might face opposition within the Democratic Party as she did in 2018, when she was challenged by fellow Democrat Kevin de León and defeated him by an unexpectedly narrow margin.[49] In December 2022, Feinstein confirmed that she would not resign before the end of her term.[50]
In January 2023, with the question of Feinstein's reelection decision still open, U.S. Representative Katie Porter announced that she would run for Senate. She confirmed that she would stay in the race even if Feinstein chose to run for another term.[2] Porter was first elected in 2018, unseating incumbent Mimi Walters. She later gained national fame for her progressive politics, and frequently went viral for her pointed questioning of corporate executives in congressional hearings, often while using a whiteboard.[51] Porter's coastal, Orange County-based district is considered highly competitive, and all of her elections have been close.[52]
Two weeks later, Porter was joined by another Democratic member of the House, Adam Schiff, who said that he had consulted with Feinstein before entering the race.[3] A moderate Democrat who unseated incumbent James Rogan in 2000, Schiff's profile rose significantly during the presidency of Donald Trump, owing to his role as a lead impeachment manager in the first impeachment of Donald Trump, his service on the January 6 Committee, and his frequent appearances on MSNBC.[53][54] Schiff has not faced a competitive election since 2000, as his Los Angeles-based district became significantly more Democratic during the 2000 redistricting cycle and has been considered a safe seat ever since.[55]
A third Democratic House member, Barbara Lee, reportedly told members of the Congressional Black Caucus in January that she would also run for Senate.[56] As she was already 76 years old in January 2023, Lee reportedly pitched herself to donors as a transitional senator who would serve only one term.[57] A longtime progressive first elected in a 1998 special election, Lee is known for being the only member of Congress to vote against the Authorization for Use of Military Force of 2001, which led to military deployment in Afghanistan and several other countries.[58] Lee filed to run for Senate in early February 2023 and formally announced her campaign later that month.[59][4] Lee's district, based in Alameda County and including one of the state's largest cities in Oakland, is one of the most Democratic-leaning districts in the entire country.[60]
Feinstein continued to demur on her reelection plans, at one point saying she would not announce her decision until 2024.[61] But in February 2023, she confirmed that she would retire, ending a political career that spanned over 50 years.[62] The 2024 election is only the second California Senate race without an incumbent since 1992, the other being the 2016 election following Barbara Boxer's retirement. However, Politico pointed out that the 2016 election had an "early and prohibitive frontrunner" in Kamala Harris while the 2024 election has no clear frontrunner, and thus considers the 2024 election the first truly open California Senate race in 32 years.[63]
Early months of the race
Lee, Porter, and Schiff have similar voting records in Congress and similarly progressive platforms. As a result, they are expected to differentiate themselves by their life stories and individual strengths rather than their ideologies.[64] All three have faced controversies that could damage their campaigns: Porter has been accused of mistreating congressional staff, Lee's age is seen as a potential issue, and Schiff is expected to face opposition from progressives due to his past support for overseas military intervention and for taking donations from groups affiliated with the oil, payday loan, and pharmaceutical industries, though he has declared he will not accept funds from corporate PACs in his Senate campaign.[65][64] Schiff has also been criticized for listing his primary residence as Montgomery County, Maryland in tax documents, though his campaign maintains that he lives in Burbank, California.[66] Other important factors include geography, as Schiff and Porter both represent southern California while Lee represents northern California, and diversity, as a victory by Schiff would leave California with no female senators for the first time since 1992 while a victory by Lee would make her the fourth black woman to serve in the Senate and the first elected since Kamala Harris left office in 2021 to become vice president.[64][67]
Schiff began 2023 with $20.6 million in his campaign account compared to $7.7 million for Porter and just under $55,000 for Lee.[68] But all three quickly began raising large sums of money; for example, in the first 24 hours of her campaign, Porter raised over $1.3 million.[69] The three also launched super PACs to aid with fundraising, each competing for the top California fundraising firms and consultants. Former Federal Election Commission chair Ann Ravel predicted that the race would turn out to be one of the most expensive Senate races in history.[70] The expensive nature of the race led media sources to speculate that a wealthy candidate could run a competitive self-funded campaign, akin to Rick Caruso's campaign in the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral election.[71] This scenario seemed to come to pass when former Google executive Lexi Reese joined the race in June 2023; her aides told Politico she would spend a "significant" amount of her own money on her campaign.[17] However, Reese made little impact on the race and dropped out months later; though she raised $2 million, much of it self-funded, she wrote that this was "just not enough to run a state-wide campaign."[18]
Throughout most of 2023, there were no prominent Republicans in the race. This has been attributed to California's heavy Democratic lean and Republican donors' wariness of the high cost of running a statewide campaign in California; GOP strategist Duane Dichiara estimated that a Republican would need at least $80 million to run a viable Senate campaign. Additionally, California's top-two primary system may allow two Democrats to advance to the general election, a scenario that played out in the 2016 and 2018 Senate races. But the three-way division in the Democratic field could help a Republican reach the general election. Republicans will also benefit from the fact that the 2024 California Republican presidential primary, held on the same day as the Senate primary, is expected to be hotly contested and entice Republican voters to turn out in higher numbers.[48][45]
Feinstein's death and replacement
Feinstein faced calls to resign throughout 2023 due to reports of her declining health, including from U.S. Representative Ro Khanna. She declined to do so.[72] California governor Gavin Newsom had previously committed to appointing a black woman to the Senate if a seat opened up, after facing controversy due to appointing Alex Padilla to the seat left behind by Kamala Harris after she was elected vice president.[73] Barbara Lee, Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass, San Francisco mayor London Breed, Los Angeles County supervisor Holly Mitchell, Secretary of State Shirley Weber, and talk show host Oprah Winfrey were named as possible appointees, though Bass, Mitchell, and Winfrey said they would not be interested.[73][74] In September 2023, Newsom confirmed he would fulfill his promise to appoint a black woman, but said he would not appoint any candidate running to succeed Feinstein, and would instead appoint someone who committed not to run for a full term. Lee, the only black woman in the race, responded, "the idea that a Black woman should be appointed only as a caretaker to simply check a box is insulting to countless Black women across this country who have carried the Democratic Party to victory election after election."[75] Lee faced backlash for her comments, with several advisors to Newsom departing from her super PAC.[76] Newsom argued that the question of a Senate vacancy was "a hypothetical on top of a hypothetical", believing that Feinstein would not leave office before her term ended.[77]
Feinstein died one week later, on September 29, 2023.[78] Newsom was expected to quickly appoint a successor, as a crisis over a potential government shutdown necessitated a united Democratic front in the Senate. A special election for Feinstein's seat will also be held concurrently with the regular 2024 election.[79] In addition to those already mentioned, possible successors speculated by media sources included PolicyLink founder Angela Glover Blackwell, former state assemblywoman Autumn Burke, EMILYs List director Laphonza Butler, State Controller Malia Cohen, California Supreme Court justice Leondra Kruger, Bay Area Rapid Transit Board of Directors president Lateefah Simon, and U.S. Representative Maxine Waters.[80][81][82][83][84] Waters and California State Board of Education president Linda Darling-Hammond said they were not interested in the appointment.[82] Congressional Black Caucus chair Steven Horsford sent a letter to Newsom on behalf of the caucus that urged him to appoint Lee.[85]
On October 1, Newsom appointed Butler to the Senate, with no conditions about whether she may run in 2024.[86] Butler formerly served as president of SEIU Local 2015, the largest union in California, and on the University of California Board of Regents. She is openly lesbian, making her California's first openly LGBTQ Senator and the first openly LGBTQ black woman to serve in Congress.[87] Butler's appointment was controversial, with many pointing out that she was registered to vote in Maryland at the time. Butler responded that she lived in California for many years before moving to the D.C. metropolitan area in 2021; she pointed out that she still owned a home in Los Angeles and promised to re-register in California.[88] Butler was also criticized for advising Uber as it lobbied against a 2019 California bill to classify rideshare drivers as employees. In response, she maintained that she personally supported the bill.[89] At first, Butler left open the question of whether she would run for a full term, but on October 19, she said she would not join the 2024 race.[5]
Later events in 2023
On October 10, 2023, Republicans gained a prominent candidate when former professional baseball player Steve Garvey entered the race. Garvey, who played for both the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres, is considered to have an advantage in name recognition, but is expected to face difficulty due to his anti-abortion beliefs and support for Donald Trump. Two other Republican candidates, healthcare executive James Bradley and attorney Eric Early, both of whom had previously made several unsuccessful bids for office, also attracted some media attention and support in polls.[37]
Schiff and Porter have consistently lead in polling throughout the race, with Lee and the Republicans far behind. Lee's poor polling numbers have been attributed to a lack of name recognition outside her San Francisco Bay Area constituency, her lack of fundraising compared to Schiff and Porter, and the fact that Schiff and Porter have achieved national fame while Lee is less well-known. In November 2023, Lee ruled out withdrawing from the race and insisted that she still had a chance.[90] In recent months, Lee's campaign has been much more willing to openly criticize her two main rivals, attempting to define Lee as the most progressive candidate in the race.[76]
On November 18, 2023, the California Democratic Party held its endorsing convention for the Senate race. Lee received the most delegate votes, narrowrly outpacing Schiff; however, neither candidate came close to reaching the 60% threshold necessary to win the endorsement.[91] Rumors had circulated that Lee would drop out of the race and run for re-election to the House if she did not receive the party's endorsement, but her campaign reiterated after the convention that she intended on staying in the Senate race.[92]
| California Democratic Party Senate endorsement vote (60% required)[93] | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Regular election | Special election | ||||||
| Votes | % | Result | Votes | % | Result | |||
| Barbara Lee | 963 | 41.47% | No endorsement | 958 | 41.26% | No endorsement | ||
| Adam Schiff | 933 | 40.18% | 927 | 39.92% | ||||
| Katie Porter | 373 | 16.06% | 361 | 15.59% | ||||
| Lexi Reese | 3 | 0.13% | 2 | 0.09% | ||||
| Don't endorse | 50 | 2.15% | 67 | 2.89% | ||||
| Total | 2,322 | 100.00% | 2,315 | 100.00% | ||||
The 2023 Israel–Hamas war became a late issue in the race, with Lee initially being the only major candidate to call for a ceasefire. The California Democratic Party convention was disrupted by pro-Palestine protests calling for a ceasefire. Protestors entered the main convention arena and shouted, interrupting speeches by Schiff, Porter, and Lexi Reese. Some reportedly chanted the controversial slogan "from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free."[94] While the protest was initially peaceful, it later escalated, with over 1,000 protestors entering the building. Police locked down the building and the rest of the convention was canceled.[95] Porter would later call for a ceasefire the following month.[96]
Endorsements
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Шаблон:Endorsements box Шаблон:Endorsements box
Polling
- Ro Khanna vs. Barbara Lee vs. Katie Porter vs. Adam Schiff
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
Ro Khanna (D) |
Barbara Lee (D) |
Katie Porter (D) |
Adam Schiff (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley IGS | February 14–20, 2023 | 7,512 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 4% | 6% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|20% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|22% | 9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|39% |
| David Binder Research | November 19–21, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 6% | 9% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|30% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|29% | 9%Шаблон:Efn | 17% |
- With vs. without Steve Garvey
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin Шаблон:Nowrap |
James Bradley (R) |
Eric Early (R) |
Steve Garvey (R) |
Barbara Lee (D) |
Katie Porter (D) |
Lexie Reese (D) |
Adam Schiff (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley IGS | Aug 24–29, 2023 | 3,113 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 7% | 5% | 7% | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |17% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |20% | 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided |32% |
| 10% | 7% | – | 7% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |17% | 1% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic |20% | 4% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided |34% |
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023Шаблон:Efn | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|James Bradley (R) | $16,410 | $16,150 | $344 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Eric Early (R) | $547,023 | $460,176 | $86,846 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Republican|Denice Gary-Pandol (R) | $89,892 | $84,437 | $5,454 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Barbara Lee (D) | $3,390,204 | $2,066,329 | $1,323,875 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Katie Porter (D) | $22,130,230 | $10,169,773 | $11,960,457 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Lexi Reese (D) | $1,817,201 | $1,134,723 | $682,478 |
| Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|Adam Schiff (D) | $21,520,627 | $10,453,622 | $32,127,523 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[97] | |||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[98] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[99] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[100] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 9, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[101] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[102] | Шаблон:USRaceRating | November 21, 2023 |
Polling
- Katie Porter vs. Adam Schiff
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample sizeШаблон:Efn |
Margin of error |
Katie Porter (D) |
Adam Schiff (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Binder Research | November 19–21, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | Шаблон:Party shading/Democratic|37% | 26% | Шаблон:Party shading/Undecided|37%Шаблон:Efn |
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
External links
- Official campaign websites
- Akinyemi Agbede (D) for Senate
- Fepbrina Keivaulqe Autiameineire (NPP) for Senate
- Eric Early (R) for Senate
- Frank Ferreira (NPP) for Senate
- Steve Garvey (R) for Senate
- Denice Gary-Pandol (R) for Senate
- Jehu Hand (R) for Senate
- Zakaria Kortam (R) for Senate
- Barbara Lee (D) for Senate
- Katie Porter (D) for Senate
- Perry Pound (D) for Senate
- Douglas Pierce (D) for Senate
- Raji Rab (D) for Senate
- Lexi Reese (D) for Senate
- Jonathan Reiss (R) for Senate
- Adam Schiff (D) for Senate
- Sarah Sun Liew (R) for Senate
Шаблон:2024 United States elections
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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