Английская Википедия:2024 Uruguayan general election
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Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Use dmy dates Шаблон:Infobox electionШаблон:Politics of Uruguay
General elections will be held in Uruguay on 27 October 2024.[1] If no presidential candidate receives a majority in the first round of voting, a runoff will take place on Sunday 24 November 2024.
Background
Incumbent President Luis Lacalle Pou, who won the 2019 elections, cannot run again as the constitution bars a president from immediate re-election. As a result, the governing National Party has to nominate a new candidate.
Electoral system
The President of Uruguay is elected using the two-round system, with a run-off held if no candidate receives 50% of the vote in the first round. The 30 members of the Senate are elected by proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency. The vice president, elected on the same ballot as the president, becomes president of the Senate, with his vote being determinant in case of tie.[2] The 99 members of the Chamber of Representatives are elected by proportional representation in 19 multi-member constituencies based on the 19 departments. Seats are allocated using the highest averages method.[3]
The elections are held using the double simultaneous vote method, whereby voters cast a single vote for the party of their choice for all three seats of Presidency, Senate and Chamber of Representatives.
Presidential candidates
Presidential primaries will be held in April or June to select the candidates. Potential candidates include:[4]
- National Party
- Álvaro Delgado, Secretary of the Presidency (2020–present)
- Laura Raffo, President of the Montevideo Departmental Commission of the National Party (2020–present)
- Beatriz Argimón, Vice President of Uruguay (2020–present)
- Juan Sartori, Senator (2020–present)
- Javier García Duchini, Minister of National Defense (2020–present)
- Jorge Gandini, Senator (2020–present)
- Broad Front
- Yamandú Orsi, Intendant of Canelones (2015–present)
- Carolina Cosse, Intendant of Montevideo (2020–present)
- Mario Bergara, Senator (2020–present)
- Andrés Lima, Intendant of Salto (2020–present)
Opinion polls
Party polling
Шаблон:Wide image Шаблон:Mw-datatable
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | FA | PN | PC | CA | PERI | PG | PI | Others | Шаблон:Abbr | Blank/Шаблон:Abbr | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | ||||||||||
| Factum[5] | 17-30 Nov 2023 | 900 | 42% | 26% | 9% | 7% | Шаблон:N/A | Шаблон:N/A | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|16% |
| UPC[6][7] | 10–14 Nov 2023 | 500 | 45% | 27% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 2% | 7% | 8% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|18% | |
| Cifra[8] | 17 Oct–3 Nov 2023 | 1,002 | 44% | 31% | 6% | 2% | Шаблон:N/A | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 1% | 15% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|13% | ||
| Equipos Consultores[9] | 5–18 Oct 2023 | 1,204 | 40% | 29% | 4% | 2% | 1% | Шаблон:N/A | Шаблон:N/A | 1% | 17% | 6% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|11% |
| UPC[10] | 15–19 Sep 2023 | 400 | 45% | 29% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 7% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|16% |
| Factum[11] | 21 Aug–6 Sep 2023 | 900 | 41% | 28% | 7% | 8% | Шаблон:N/A | Шаблон:N/A | 3% | 3% | 8% | 2% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|13% |
| Cifra[12] | 17–31 Aug 2023 | 1,000 | 42% | 30% | 4% | 2% | Шаблон:N/A | Шаблон:N/A | 1% | 21% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|12% | ||
| Equipos Consultores[13] | 10–23 Aug 2023 | 1,204 | 43% | 26% | 7% | 3% | 1% | Шаблон:N/A | 1% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 15% | 3% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|17% |
| Nómade[14] | 19–23 Jul 2023 | 902 | 40.6% | 25.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | Шаблон:N/A | Шаблон:N/A | 1.1% | 0.9% | 22.3% | 1.7% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|14.7% |
| Cifra[15] | 15 Jun–2 Jul 2023 | 1,009 | 44% | 27% | 6% | 2% | Шаблон:N/A | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 1% | 18% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|17% | ||
| Factum[16] | 21–28 Jun 2023 | 900 | 40% | 26% | 9% | 7% | Шаблон:N/A | Шаблон:N/A | 4% | 4% | 7% | 3% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|14% |
| Equipos Consultores[17] | 2–16 Jun 2023 | 1,207 | 43% | 28% | 7% | 2% | 1% | Шаблон:N/A | 1% | 1% | 12% | 5% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|15% |
| UPC[18] | 2–6 Jun 2023 | 400 | 45% | 29% | 5% | 4% | Шаблон:N/A | Шаблон:N/A | 1% | 3% | 7% | 6% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|16% |
| Opción Consultores[19] | 15–22 May 2023 | 849 | 42% | 30% | 4% | 4% | 1% | Шаблон:N/A | 1% | 1% | 11% | 6% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|12% |
| Factum[20] | 24 Apr–11 May 2023 | 900 | 41% | 23% | 8% | 11% | Шаблон:N/A | Шаблон:N/A | 4% | 3% | 7% | 3% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|18% |
| Cifra[21] | 20 Apr–3 May 2023 | 987 | 41% | 30% | 3% | 4% | Шаблон:N/A | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 1% | 19% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|11% | ||
| Equipos Consultores[22] | 11–24 Apr 2023 | 1,204 | 42% | 28% | 5% | 2% | Шаблон:N/A | Шаблон:N/A | 1% | Шаблон:N/A | 15% | 7% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|14% |
| Nómade[23] | 3–17 Apr 2023 | 803 | 43.7% | 29.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | Шаблон:N/A | Шаблон:N/A | 2.1% | 0.8% | 12.5% | 2.3% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|14.7% |
| Cifra[24] | 15–27 Feb 2023 | 1,007 | 43% | 30% | 3% | 2% | Шаблон:N/A | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 1% | 19% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|13% | ||
| Factum[25] | 11–20 Feb 2023 | 1,000 | 41% | 26% | 6% | 9% | Шаблон:N/A | Шаблон:N/A | 4% | 4% | 7% | 3% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|15% |
| Equipos Consultores[26] | Feb 2023 | – | 43% | 24% | 9% | 3% | Шаблон:N/A | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 1% | 1% | n/a | n/a | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|19% |
| Nómade[27] | 3–17 Jan 2023 | 828 | 43.1% | 27.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.3%Шаблон:Efn | 14.1% | 1.3% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|15.3% |
| Equipos Consultores[28] | Dec 2022 | – | 44% | 23% | 6% | 4% | 1% | Шаблон:N/A | Шаблон:N/A | 1% | 16% | 5% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|21% |
| Opción Consultores[29] | 2–10 Nov 2022 | – | 40% | 28% | 6% | 5% | 1% | Шаблон:N/A | 1% | 1% | 12% | 6% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|12% |
| Cifra[30] | 20–31 Oct 2022 | 810 | 43% | 31% | 4% | 2% | Шаблон:N/A | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 1% | 18% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|12% | ||
| Factum[31] | 4–16 Oct 2022 | 800 | 41% | 27% | 8% | 8% | Шаблон:N/A | Шаблон:N/A | 3% | 3% | 7% | 3% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|14% |
| Equipos Consultores[32] | 24 Jul–8 Oct 2022 | 1,900 | 38% | 28% | 5% | 3% | 1% | Шаблон:N/A | 1% | 2% | 20% | 5% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|10% |
| Factum[33] | 3–13 Jun 2022 | 900 | 39% | 28% | 8% | 8% | Шаблон:N/A | Шаблон:N/A | 3% | 3% | 7% | 4% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|11% |
| Equipos Consultores[34] | 23 Apr–7 May 2022 | 1,195 | 35% | 25% | 5% | 2% | Шаблон:N/A | Шаблон:N/A | Шаблон:N/A | 1% | 25% | 7% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|10% |
| Factum[35] | 6–15 Nov 2021 | 900 | 39% | 30% | 8% | 9% | Шаблон:N/A | 1% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 2% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|9% |
| Equipos Consultores[36] | Jul–Sep 2021 | 1,500 | 35% | 30% | 4% | 3% | Шаблон:N/A | Шаблон:N/A | 1% | 1% | 19% | 7% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|5% |
| Opción Consultores[37] | 13–20 May 2021 | 824 | 34% | 33% | 5% | 5% | 1% | Шаблон:N/A | 1% | 2% | 11% | 8% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|1% |
| 2019 election, 1st round | 27 October 2019 | – | 39.0% | 28.6% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.9% | Шаблон:N/A | 3.6% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|10.4% |
Party polling with hypothetical presidential candidates
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
FA | PN | PC | CA | PERI | PI | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orsi | Cosse | Delgado | Raffo | ||||||||
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | ||||||
| Equipos Consultores[38] | 2–16 Jun 2023 | 1,207 | 46% | Шаблон:N/A | 26% | Шаблон:N/A | 11% | 5% | Шаблон:N/A | 4% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|20% |
| 46% | Шаблон:N/A | Шаблон:N/A | 20% | 13% | 7% | Шаблон:N/A | 4% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|26% | |||
| Шаблон:N/A | 39% | 25% | Шаблон:N/A | 13% | 6% | Шаблон:N/A | 6% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|14% | |||
| Шаблон:N/A | 41% | Шаблон:N/A | 21% | 16% | 7% | Шаблон:N/A | 5% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|20% | |||
| Opción Consultores[39] | 23 May–1 Jun 2022 | 800 | 40% | Шаблон:N/A | 22% | Шаблон:N/A | 12% | 8% | 1% | 3% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|18% |
| Шаблон:N/A | 39% | 23% | Шаблон:N/A | 13% | 9% | 2% | 3% | style="background:Шаблон:Party color;color:#FFFFFF;"|16% | |||
Presidential polling with hypothetical candidates
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
FA | PN | PC | CA | Other | Шаблон:Abbr | Blank/ Шаблон:Abbr | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orsi | Cosse | Bergara | Other FA | Delgado | Raffo | Argimón | Other PN | Bordaberry | Other PC | Manini | Other CA | ||||||
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Шаблон:Party color"| | ||||||||
| Cifra[40] | 17 Oct–3 Nov 2023 | 1,002 | 20% | 9% | 1% | 5% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 4%Шаблон:Efn | Шаблон:N/A | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 3% | Шаблон:N/A | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 38% | Шаблон:N/A |
| Cifra[41] | 17–31 Aug 2023 | 1,000 | 23% | 8% | 1% | 5% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 2% | Шаблон:N/A | 3% | Шаблон:N/A | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 37% | Шаблон:N/A |
| Cifra[42] | 15 Jun–2 Jul 2023 | 1,009 | 20% | 12% | 1% | 7% | 10% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 3% | Шаблон:N/A | 2% | Шаблон:N/A | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 35% | Шаблон:N/A |
| Cifra[43] | 20 Apr–3 May 2023 | 987 | 22% | 10% | 1% | 4% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 2% | Шаблон:N/A | 4% | Шаблон:N/A | 2%Шаблон:Efn | 34% | Шаблон:N/A |
| Nómade[23] | 3–17 Apr 2023 | 803 | 17.2% | 11.2% | 0.7% | 0.7%Шаблон:Efn | 5.7% | 0.6% | Шаблон:N/A | 5.3%Шаблон:Efn | 0.9% | Шаблон:N/A | 4.0% | Шаблон:N/A | 4.5% | 45.9% | 3.3% |
| Cifra[44] | 4–14 Aug 2022 | 704 | 17.5% | 8.9% | Шаблон:N/A | 9.9% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 7.7%Шаблон:Efn | 3.0% | Шаблон:N/A | 2.8% | Шаблон:N/A | 2.8%Шаблон:Efn | 33.8% | Шаблон:N/A |
| Opción Consultores[39] | 23 May–1 Jun 2022 | 800 | 9% | 6% | Шаблон:Efn | 8% | 5% | Шаблон:Efn | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1%Шаблон:Efn | 62% | Шаблон:N/A |
- Notes
Notes
References
- ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
- ↑ Electoral system IPU
- ↑ Electoral system IPU
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