Английская Википедия:Beruwala polling division

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The Beruwala polling division is a polling division in the Kalutara electoral district, in the Western Province, Sri Lanka.

Presidential election results

Summary

The winner of Beruwala has matched the final country result 7 out of 8 times. Hence, Beruwala is a strong bellwether for presidential elections.Шаблон:Cn

Year Beruwala Kalutara electoral district MAE[1] % Sri Lanka MAE[2] %
2019 SLPP SLPP 11.36% SLPP 4.63%
2015 NDF UPFA 10.40% NDF 5.50%
2010 UPFA UPFA 8.63% UPFA 3.70%
2005 UPFA UPFA 6.06% UPFA 0.91%
1999 PA PA 2.26% PA 0.58%
1994 PA PA 1.48% PA 2.40%
1988 SLFP SLFP 0.78% UNP 4.19%
1982 UNP UNP 2.18% UNP 1.39%
Matches/Mean MAE 7/8 6/8 5.39% 8/8 2.91%

[2019 Sri Lankan presidential election

Party Beruwala[3] Kalutara Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
SLPP 48,037 47.58% 482,920 59.49% 6,924,255 52.25%
NDF 47,654 47.20% 284,213 35.01% 5,564,239 41.99%
NMPP 3,172 3.14% 27,681 3.41% 418,553 3.16%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 2,091 2.07% 16,949 2.09% 345,452 2.61%
Valid Votes 100,954 99.13% 811,763 99.16% 13,252,499 98.99%
Rejected Votes 885 0.87% 6,847 0.84% 135,452 1.01%
Total Polled 101,839 83.69% 818,610 85.71% 13,387,951 83.71%
Registered Electors 121,686 955,080 15,992,568

2015 Sri Lankan presidential election

Party Beruwala[4] Kalutara Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
NDF 53,280 56.96% 349,404 46.46% 6,217,162 51.28%
UPFA 39,424 42.15% 395,890 52.65% 5,768,090 47.58%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 836 0.89% 6,690 0.89% 138,200 1.14%
Valid Votes 93,540 98.99% 751,984 98.90% 12,123,452 98.85%
Rejected Votes 951 1.01% 8,381 1.10% 140,925 1.15%
Total Polled 94,491 80.74% 760,365 82.08% 12,264,377 78.69%
Registered Electors 117,033 926,346 15,585,942

2010 Sri Lankan presidential election

Party Beruwala[5] Kalutara Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
UPFA 43,787 54.35% 412,562 63.06% 6,015,934 57.88%
NDF 35,678 44.29% 231,807 35.43% 4,173,185 40.15%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 1,093 1.36% 9,880 1.51% 204,494 1.97%
Valid Votes 80,558 99.35% 654,249 99.31% 10,393,613 99.03%
Rejected Votes 523 0.65% 4,541 0.69% 101,838 0.97%
Total Polled 81,081 77.69% 658,790 79.05% 10,495,451 66.70%
Registered Electors 104,363 833,360 15,734,587

2005 Sri Lankan presidential election

Party Beruwala[6] Kalutara Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
UPFA 37,402 49.31% 341,693 55.48% 4,887,152 50.29%
UNP 37,390 49.29% 266,043 43.20% 4,706,366 48.43%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 1,059 1.40% 8,124 1.32% 123,521 1.27%
Valid Votes 75,851 98.85% 615,860 98.95% 9,717,039 98.88%
Rejected Votes 885 1.15% 6,517 1.05% 109,869 1.12%
Total Polled 76,736 77.49% 622,377 79.67% 9,826,908 69.51%
Registered Electors 99,026 781,175 14,136,979

1999 Sri Lankan presidential election

Party Beruwala[7] Kalutara Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
PA 34,369 51.05% 281,217 52.88% 4,312,157 51.12%
UNP 29,585 43.95% 217,423 40.88% 3,602,748 42.71%
JVP 2,421 3.60% 23,770 4.47% 343,927 4.08%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 946 1.41% 9,399 1.77% 176,679 2.09%
Valid Votes 67,321 98.33% 531,809 97.83% 8,435,754 97.69%
Rejected Votes 1,145 1.67% 11,796 2.17% 199,536 2.31%
Total Polled 68,466 78.24% 543,605 78.23% 8,635,290 72.17%
Registered Electors 87,513 694,860 11,965,536

1994 Sri Lankan presidential election

Party Beruwala[8] Kalutara Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
PA 36,364 60.11% 295,686 61.47% 4,709,205 62.28%
UNP 23,487 38.82% 178,466 37.10% 2,715,283 35.91%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 649 1.07% 6,867 1.43% 137,040 1.81%
Valid Votes 60,500 98.92% 481,019 98.50% 7,561,526 98.03%
Rejected Votes 660 1.08% 7,309 1.50% 151,706 1.97%
Total Polled 61,160 72.94% 488,328 73.97% 7,713,232 69.12%
Registered Electors 83,849 660,191 11,158,880

1988 Sri Lankan presidential election

Party Beruwala[9] Kalutara Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
SLFP 21,920 50.51% 179,761 49.57% 2,289,857 44.95%
UNP 20,529 47.30% 169,510 46.74% 2,569,199 50.43%
SLMP 952 2.19% 13,375 3.69% 235,701 4.63%
Valid Votes 43,401 98.41% 362,646 98.23% 5,094,754 98.24%
Rejected Votes 700 1.59% 6,537 1.77% 91,499 1.76%
Total Polled 44,101 60.08% 369,183 64.20% 5,186,256 55.87%
Registered Electors 73,408 575,008 9,283,143

1982 Sri Lankan presidential election

Party Beruwala[10] Kalutara Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
UNP 27,951 52.94% 211,592 50.15% 3,450,815 52.93%
SLFP 22,349 42.33% 185,874 44.06% 2,546,348 39.05%
JVP 1,812 3.43% 14,499 3.44% 273,428 4.19%
LSSP 608 1.15% 8,613 2.04% 58,531 0.90%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 81 0.15% 1,314 0.31% 190,929 2.93%
Valid Votes 52,801 98.98% 421,892 98.76% 6,520,156 98.78%
Rejected Votes 544 1.02% 5,290 1.24% 80,470 1.22%
Total Polled 53,345 82.89% 427,182 83.97% 6,600,626 80.15%
Registered Electors 64,357 508,744 8,235,358

Parliamentary election results

Summary

The winner of Beruwala has matched the final country result 7 out of 7 times. Hence, Beruwala is a perfect bellwether for parliamentary elections.Шаблон:Cn

Year Beruwala Kalutara Electoral District MAE[11] % Sri Lanka MAE[12] %
2015 UNP UPFA 9.90% UNP 6.17%
2010 UPFA UPFA 8.43% UPFA 5.93%
2004 UPFA UPFA 4.13% UPFA 2.83%
2001 UNP UNP 4.86% UNP 3.28%
2000 PA PA 2.75% PA 1.83%
1994 PA PA 1.39% PA 2.15%
1989 UNP UNP 3.58% UNP 1.29%
Matches/Mean MAE 7/7 6/7 5.01% 7/7 3.35%

2015 Sri Lankan parliamentary election

Party Beruwala[13] Kalutara Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
UNP 47,987 54.95% 310,234 44.48% 5,098,916 45.77%
UPFA 33,142 37.95% 338,801 48.58% 4,732,664 42.48%
JVP 3,670 4.20% 38,475 5.52% 544,154 4.88%
BJP 2,119 2.43% 5,727 0.82% 20,377 0.18%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 405 0.46% 4,224 0.61% 65,202 0.59%
Valid Votes 87,323 96.89% 697,461 97.00% 11,140,333 95.35%
Rejected Votes 2,782 3.09% 21,366 2.97% 516,926 4.42%
Total Polled 90,122 77.01% 719,001 80.13% 11,684,111 77.66%
Registered Electors 117,033 897,349 15,044,490

2010 Sri Lankan parliamentary election

Party Beruwala[14] Kalutara Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
UPFA 32,709 54.14% 313,836 63.74% 4,846,388 60.38%
UNP 21,737 35.98% 139,596 28.35% 2,357,057 29.37%
DNA 5,716 9.46% 36,722 7.46% 441,251 5.50%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 251 0.42% 2,246 0.46% 34,923 0.44%
Valid Votes 60,413 90.02% 492,400 90.41% 8,026,322 96.03%
Rejected Votes 6,644 9.90% 51,751 9.50% 581,465 6.96%
Total Polled 67,108 64.30% 544,606 65.21% 8,358,246 59.29%
Registered Electors 104,363 835,186 14,097,690

2004 Sri Lankan parliamentary election

Party Beruwala[15] Kalutara Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
UPFA 33,583 47.38% 291,208 51.72% 4,223,126 45.70%
UNP 30,210 42.62% 212,721 37.78% 3,486,792 37.73%
JHU 6,751 9.52% 56,615 10.06% 552,723 5.98%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 339 0.48% 2,475 0.44% 49,030 0.53%
Valid Votes 70,883 94.77% 563,019 94.82% 9,241,931 94.52%
Rejected Votes 3,912 5.23% 30,741 5.18% 534,452 5.47%
Total Polled 74,795 77.19% 593,760 79.58% 9,777,821 75.74%
Registered Electors 96,897 746,138 12,909,631

2001 Sri Lankan parliamentary election

Party Beruwala[16] Kalutara Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
UNP 36,709 52.12% 254,339 45.94% 4,086,026 45.62%
PA 25,641 36.41% 226,468 40.91% 3,330,815 37.19%
JVP 6,581 9.34% 60,451 10.92% 815,353 9.10%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 1,499 2.13% 12,361 2.23% 137,091 1.53%
Valid Votes 70,430 94.75% 553,619 94.44% 8,955,844 94.77%
Rejected Votes 3,903 5.25% 32,617 5.56% 494,009 5.23%
Total Polled 74,333 80.22% 586,236 81.68% 9,449,878 76.03%
Registered Electors 92,658 717,764 12,428,762

2000 Sri Lankan parliamentary election

Party Beruwala[17] Kalutara Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
PA 30,179 43.40% 255,175 46.86% 3,899,329 45.33%
UNP 29,392 42.27% 217,215 39.89% 3,451,765 40.12%
JVP 3,988 5.74% 38,373 7.05% 518,725 6.03%
NUA 3,671 5.28% 11,943 2.19% 185,593 2.16%
SU 1,565 2.25% 15,619 2.87% 127,859 1.49%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 738 1.06% 6,193 1.14% 136,137 1.58%
Valid Votes 69,533 N/A 544,518 N/A 8,602,617 N/A

1994 Sri Lankan parliamentary election

Party Beruwala[18] Kalutara Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
PA 33,686 52.33% 271,754 53.77% 3,887,805 48.94%
UNP 29,063 45.15% 221,115 43.75% 3,498,370 44.04%
SLPF 809 1.26% 6,238 1.23% 90,078 1.13%
MEP 776 1.21% 5,914 1.17% 68,538 0.86%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 42 0.07% 339 0.07% 813 0.01%
Valid Votes 64,376 95.82% 505,360 95.21% 7,943,688 95.20%
Rejected Votes 2,805 4.18% 25,397 4.79% 400,395 4.80%
Total Polled 67,181 80.12% 530,757 80.20% 8,344,095 74.75%
Registered Electors 83,849 661,793 11,163,064

1989 Sri Lankan parliamentary election

Party Beruwala[19] Kalutara Electoral District Sri Lanka
Votes % Votes % Votes %
UNP 19,298 50.12% 160,069 49.84% 2,838,005 50.71%
SLFP 12,976 33.70% 131,510 40.94% 1,785,369 31.90%
SLMC 5,250 13.64% 12,971 4.04% 202,016 3.61%
USA 642 1.67% 12,342 3.84% 141,983 2.54%
Other Parties (with < 1%) 336 0.87% 4,301 1.34% 158,203 2.83%
Valid Votes 38,502 94.56% 321,193 94.10% 5,596,468 93.87%
Rejected Votes 2,214 5.44% 20,139 5.90% 365,563 6.13%
Total Polled 40,716 56.27% 341,332 59.86% 5,962,031 63.60%
Registered Electors 72,355 570,193 9,374,164

Demographics

Ethnicity

The Beruwala polling division has a Sinhalese majority (64.2%) and a significant Moor population (34.6%) . In comparison, the Kalutara electoral district (which contains the Beruwala polling division) has a Sinhalese majority (86.8%).[20] Шаблон:Pie chart

Religion

The Beruwala polling division has a Buddhist majority (55.7%) and a significant Muslim population (34.7%) . In comparison, the Kalutara Electoral District (which contains the Beruwala polling division) has a Buddhist majority (83.4%).[20] Шаблон:Pie chart

References

Шаблон:Reflist

  1. The mean absolute error, between the percentages of votes each party got in Beruwala and the Kalutara electoral district. It is a measure of the difference in voting behaviour between the two regions.
  2. The mean absolute error, between the percentages of votes each party got in Beruwala and the country. It is a measure of the difference in voting behaviour between the two regions.
  3. Шаблон:Cite web
  4. Шаблон:Cite web
  5. Шаблон:Cite web
  6. Шаблон:Cite web
  7. Шаблон:Cite web
  8. Шаблон:Cite web
  9. Шаблон:Cite web
  10. Шаблон:Cite web
  11. The mean absolute error, between the percentages of votes each party got in Beruwala and the Kalutara Electoral District. It is a measure of the difference in voting behaviour between the two regions.
  12. The mean absolute error, between the percentages of votes each party got in Beruwala and the country. It is a measure of the difference in voting behaviour between the two regions.
  13. Шаблон:Cite web
  14. Шаблон:Cite web
  15. Шаблон:Cite web
  16. Шаблон:Cite web
  17. Шаблон:Cite web
  18. Шаблон:Cite web
  19. Шаблон:Cite web
  20. 20,0 20,1 Шаблон:Cite web