Английская Википедия:Demographic history of Jerusalem

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Demographic history of Jerusalem by religion, based on available data Шаблон:According to whom
Шаблон:LegendШаблон:LegendШаблон:Legend
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Arab and Jew at Arab bazaar, Old City of Jerusalem
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Jewish Orthodox children in Jerusalem

Jerusalem's population size and composition has shifted many times over its 5,000 year history.

Most population data pre-1905 is based on estimates, often from foreign travellers or organisations, since previous census data usually covered wider areas such as the Jerusalem District.[1] These estimates suggest that since the end of the Crusades, Muslims formed the largest group in Jerusalem until the mid-19th century. Between 1838 and 1876, a number of estimates exist which conflict as to whether Jews or Muslims were the largest group during this period, and between 1882 and 1922 estimates conflict as to exactly when Jews became a majority of the population.

In 2020, the population was 951,100, of which Jews comprised 570,100 (59.9%), Muslims 353.800 (37.2%), Christians 16.300 (1.7%), and 10,800 unclassified (1.1%).[2]

Overview

Шаблон:Jerusalem large Jerusalemites are of varied national, ethnic and religious denominations and include European, Asian and African Jews, Arabs of Sunni Shafi'i Muslim, Melkite Orthodox, Melkite Catholic, Latin Catholic, and Protestant backgrounds, Armenians of the Armenian Orthodox and Armenian Catholic, Assyrians largely of the Syriac Orthodox Church and Syriac Catholic Church, Maronites, and Copts.[3] Many of these groups were once immigrants or pilgrims that have over time become near-indigenous populations and claim the importance of Jerusalem to their faith as their reason for moving to and being in the city.[3]

Jerusalem's long history of conquests by competing and different powers has resulted in different groups living in the city many of whom have never fully identified or assimilated with a particular power, despite the length of their rule. Though they may have been citizens of that particular kingdom and empire and involved with civic activities and duties, these groups often saw themselves as distinct national groups (see Armenians, for example).[3] The Ottoman millet system, whereby minorities in the Ottoman Empire were given the authority to govern themselves within the framework of the broader system, allowed these groups to retain autonomy and remain separate from other religious and national groups. Some Palestinian residents of the city prefer to use the term Maqdisi or Qudsi as a Palestinian demonym.[4]

Historical population by religion

The tables below provide data on demographic change over time in Jerusalem, with an emphasis on the Jewish population. Readers should be aware that the boundaries of Jerusalem have changed many times over the years and that Jerusalem may also refer to a district or even a subdistrict under Ottoman, British, or Israeli administration, see e.g. Jerusalem District. Thus, year-to-year comparisons may not be valid due to the varying geographic areas covered by the population censuses.

Persian period

The population of Jerusalem during Persian rule in Judea (province of Yehud Medinata) is estimated at between 1,500 and 2,750.[5]

1st century Judea

During the First Jewish–Roman War (66–73 CE), the population of Jerusalem was estimated at 600,000 persons by Roman historian Tacitus, while Josephus estimated that there were as many as 1,100,000 who were killed in the war—though this number included people who did not belong to the city itself.[6] Josephus also wrote that 97,000 Jews were sold as slaves. After the Roman victory over the Jews, as many as 115,880 dead bodies were carried out through one gate between the months of Nisan and Tammuz.[7]

Modern estimates of Jerusalem's population during the final Roman Siege of Jerusalem in 70 (CE) are variously 70,398 by Wilkinson in 1974,[8] 80,000 by Broshi in 1978,[9] and 60,000–70,000 by Levine in 2002.[10] According to Josephus, the populations of adult male scholarly sects were as follows: over 6,000 Pharisees, more than 4,000 Essenes and "a few" Sadducees.[11][12] New Testament scholar Cousland notes that "recent estimates of the population of Jerusalem suggest something in the neighbourhood of a hundred thousand".[13] A minimalist view is taken by Hillel Geva, who estimates from archaeological evidence that the population of Jerusalem before its 70 CE destruction was at most 20,000.[14]

Middle Ages

Al-Maqdisi, a 10th-century native of Jerusalem writing prior to the crusades, reports that "everywhere the Christians and Jews have the upper hand and the mosque is void of congregation".[15]

Year Jews Muslims Christians Total Original source As quoted in
c. 1130 0 0 30,000 30,000 ? Runciman
1267 2* ? ? ? Nahmanides, Jewish scholar
1471 250* ? ? ? ? Baron
1488 76* ? ? ? ? Baron
1489 200* ? ? ? ? Yaari, 1943[16]

* Indicates families.

Early Ottoman era

Year Jews Muslims Christians Total Original source As quoted in
1525–1526 1,194 3,704 714 5,612 Ottoman taxation registers* Cohen and Lewis[17]
1538–1539 1,363 7,287 884 9,534 Ottoman taxation registers* Cohen and Lewis[17]
1553–1554 1,958 12,154 1,956 16,068 Ottoman taxation registers* Cohen and Lewis[17]
1596–1597 ? 8,740 252 ? Ottoman taxation registers* Cohen and Lewis[17]
1723 2,000 ? ? ? Van Egmont & Heyman, Christian travellers [18]

Modern era

Muslim "relative majority"

Henry Light, who visited Jerusalem in 1814, reported that Muslims comprised the largest portion of the 12,000 person population, but that Jews made the greatest single sect.[19] In 1818, Robert Richardson, family doctor to the Earl of Belmore, estimated the number of Jews to be 10,000, twice the number of Muslims.[20][21]

Файл:Ymca boys jeru.jpg
Arab boys at Jerusalem YMCA, 1938
Year Jews Muslims Christians Total Original source As quoted in
1806 2,000 4,000 2,774 8,774 Ulrich Jasper Seetzen, Frisian explorer[22] Sharkansky, 1996[23][24]
1815 4,000–5,000 ? ? 26,000 William Turner[25] Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001[24]
1817 3,000–4,000 13,000 3,250 19,750 Thomas R. Joliffe [26]
1821 >4,000 8,000 James Silk Buckingham [27]
1824 6,000 10,000 4,000 20,000 Fisk and King, Writers [28]
1832 4,000 13,000 3,560 20,560 Ferdinand de Géramb, French monk Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001[24]

Muslim or Jewish "relative majority"

Between 1838 and 1876, conflicting estimates exist regarding whether Muslims or Jews constituted a "relative majority" (or plurality) in the city.

Writing in 1841, the biblical scholar Edward Robinson noted the conflicting demographic estimates regarding Jerusalem during the period, stating in reference to an 1839 estimate attributed to the Moses Montefiore: "As to the Jews, the enumeration in question was made out by themselves, in the expectation of receiving a certain amount of alms for every name returned. It is therefore obvious that they here had as strong a motive to exaggerate their number, as they often have in other circumstances to underrate it. Besides, this number of 7000 rests merely on report; Sir Moses himself has published nothing on the subject; nor could his agent in London afford me any information so late as Nov. 1840."[29] In 1843, Reverend F.C. Ewald, a Christian traveler visiting Jerusalem, reported an influx of 150 Jews from Algiers. He wrote that there were now a large number of Jews from the coast of Africa who were forming a separate congregation.[30]

From the mid-1850s, following the Crimean War, the expansion of Jerusalem outside of the Old City began, with institutions including the Russian Compound, Kerem Avraham, the Schneller Orphanage, Bishop Gobat school and the Mishkenot Sha'ananim marking the beginning of permanent settlement outside the Jerusalem Old City walls.[31][32]

Between 1856 and 1880, Jewish immigration to Palestine more than doubled, with the majority settling in Jerusalem.[33] The majority of these immigrants were Ashkenazi Jews from Eastern Europe, who subsisted on Halukka.[33]

Year Jews Muslims Christians Total Original source As quoted in
1838 3,000 4,500 3,500 11,000 Edward Robinson Edward Robinson, 1841[34]
1844 7,120 5,000 3,390 15,510 Ernst-Gustav Schultz, Prussian consul[35]
1845 7,500 15,000 10,000 32,000+ Joseph Schwarz[36]
1846 7,515 6,100 3,558 17,173 Titus Tobler, Swiss explorer[37] Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001[24]
1847 10,000 25,000 10,000 45,000 French consul estimates Alexander Scholch, 1985Шаблон:Sfn
1849 895 3,074 1,872 5,841 Official Ottoman census obtained by the Prussian consul Georg Rosen, showing male subjects Alexander Scholch, 1985Шаблон:Sfn
1849 2,084 ? ? ? Moses Montefiore census, showing number of Jewish families[38]
1850 13,860 ? ? ? Dr. Ascher, Anglo-Jewish AssociationШаблон:Full citation needed
1851 5,580 12,286 7,488 25,354 Official census (only Ottoman citizens)[39] Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001[24]
1853 8,000 4,000 3,490 15,490 César Famin, French diplomat Famin[40]
1856 5,700 9,300 3,000 18,000 Ludwig August von Frankl, Austrian writer Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001[24][41]
1857 7,000 ? ? 10–15,000 HaMaggid periodical Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001[24]
1862 8,000 6,000 3,800 17,800 HaCarmel periodical Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001[24]
1864 8,000 4,500 2,500 15,000 British consulate Dore Gold, 2009[42]
1866 8,000 4,000 4,000 16,000 John Murray travel guidebook Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001[24]
1867 ? ? ? 14,000 Mark Twain, Innocents Abroad, Chapter 52 [43]
1867 4,000–
5,000		 6,000 ? ? Ellen-Clare Miller, Missionary [44]
1869 3,200* n/a n/a n/a Rabbi H. J. Sneersohn New York Times[45]
1869 9,000 5,000 4,000 18,000 Hebrew Christian Mutual Aid Society [46][47]
1869 7,977 7,500 5,373 20,850 Liévin de Hamme, Franciscan missionary Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001[24]
1871 4,000 13,000 7,000 24,000 Karl Baedeker travel guidebook Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001[24]
1872 3,780 6,150 4,428 14,358 Ottoman salname (official annals) for 1871–72 Alexander Scholch, 1985Шаблон:Sfn
1874 10,000 5,000 5,500 20,500 British consul in Jerusalem report to the House of Commons Parliamentary Papers[48]
1876 13,000 15,000 8,000 36,000 Bernhard Neumann[49] Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001[24]

Jews as absolute or relative majority

Published in 1883, the PEF Survey of Palestine volume which covered the region noted that "The number of the Jews has of late increased at the rate of 1,000 to 1,500 per annum. Since 1875 the population of Jerusalem has rapidly increased. The number of Jews is now estimated at 15,000 to 20,000, and the population, including the inhabitants of the new suburbs, reaches a total of about 40,000 souls."[50]

In 1881–82, a group of Jews arrived from Yemen as a result of messianic fervor, in the phase known as the First Aliyah.[51][52] After living in the Old City for several years, they moved to the hills facing the City of David, where they lived in caves.[53] In 1884, the community, numbering 200, moved to new stone houses built for them by a Jewish charity.[54]

The Jewish population of Jerusalem, as for wider Palestine, increased further during the Third Aliyah of 1919–23 following the Balfour Declaration. Prior to this, a British survey in 1919 noted that most Jews in Jerusalem were largely Orthodox and that a minority were Zionists.[55]

Year Jews Muslims Christians Total Original source As quoted in
1882 9,000 7,000 5,000 21,000 Wilson Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001[24]
1883 15,000–20,000 ? ? 40,000 PEF Survey of Palestine PEF Survey of Palestine[50]
1885 15,000 6,000 14,000 35,000 Goldmann Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001[24]
1889 25,000 14,000 ? >39,000 Gilbert Martin Gilbert, 2008[56]
1893 >50% ? ? ~40,000 Albert Shaw, Writer Shaw, 1894[57]
1896 28,112 8,560 8,748 45,420 Calendar of Palestine for the year 5656 Harrel and Stendel, 1974
1905 13,300 11,000 8,100 32,400 1905 Ottoman census (only Ottoman citizens) U.O.Schmelz[58]
1922 33,971 13,413 14,669 62,578 Census of Palestine (British)[59] Harrel and Stendel, 1974
1931 51,200 19,900 19,300 90,053 Census of Palestine (British) Harrel and Stendel, 1974
1944 97,000 30,600 29,400 157,000 ? Harrel and Stendel, 1974
1967 195,700 54,963 12,646 263,307 Harrel, 1974

After Jerusalem Law

Year Jews Muslims Christians Total Proportion of Jewish residents Original source
1980 292,300 ? ? 407,100 71.8% Jerusalem MunicipalityШаблон:Citation needed
1985 327,700 ? ? 457,700 71.6% Jerusalem Municipality
1987 340,000 121,000 14,000 475,000 71.6% Jerusalem Municipality
1988 353,800 125,200 14,400 493,500 71.7% Jerusalem Municipality[60]
1990 378,200 131,800 14,400 524,400 72.1% Jerusalem Municipality
1995 417,100 182,700 14,100 617,000 67.6% Jerusalem Municipality[60]
1996 421,200 ? ? 602,100 70.0% Jerusalem Municipality
2000 448,800 ? ? 657,500 68.3% Jerusalem Municipality[60]
2004 464,500 ? ? 693,200 67.0% Jerusalem Municipality[60]
2005 469,300 ? ? 706,400 66.4% Jerusalem Municipality
2007 489,480 ? ? 746,300 65.6% Jerusalem Municipality
2011 497,000 281,000 14,000 801,000 62.0% Israel Central Bureau of Statistics[60]
2015 524,700 307,300 12,400 857,800 61.2% Israel Central Bureau of Statistics[60]
2016 536,600 319,800 15,800 882,700 60.8% Israel Central Bureau of Statistics[60]
2017 546,100 328,600 15,900 901,300 60.6%Шаблон:Center Jerusalem Institute for Policy Research[60]
2018 555,800 336,700 16,000 919,400 60.5% Jerusalem Institute for Policy Research[60]
2019 563,200 345,800 16,200 936,400 60.1% Jerusalem Institute for Policy Research[60]
2020 570,100 353,800 16,300 951,100 59.9% Jerusalem Institute for Policy Research[60]

These official Israeli statistics refer to the expanded Israel municipality of Jerusalem. This includes not only the area of the pre-1967 Israeli and Jordanian municipalities, but also outlying Palestinian villages and neighbourhoods east of the city, which were not part of Jordanian East Jerusalem prior to 1967. Demographic data from 1967 to 2012 showed continues growth of Arab population, both in relative and absolute numbers, and the declining of Jewish population share in the overall population of the city. In 1967, Jews were 73.4% of city population, while in 2010 the Jewish population shrank to 64%. In the same period the Arab population increased from 26,5% in 1967 to 36% in 2010.[61][62] In 1999, the Jewish total fertility rate was 3.8 children per woman, while the Palestinian rate was 4.4. This led to concerns that Arabs would eventually become a majority of the city's population.

Between 1999 and 2010, the demographic trends reversed themselves, with the Jewish fertility rate increasing and the Arab rate decreasing. In addition, the number of Jewish immigrants from abroad choosing to settle in Jerusalem steadily increased. By 2010, there was a higher Jewish than Arab growth rate. That year, the city's birth rate was placed at 4.2 children for Jewish mothers, compared with 3.9 children for Arab mothers. In addition, 2,250 Jewish immigrants from abroad settled in Jerusalem. The Jewish fertility rate is believed to be still currently increasing, while the Arab fertility rate remains on the decline.[63]

See also

References

Шаблон:Reflist

Bibliography

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  1. ↑ Usiel Oskar Schmelz, in Ottoman Palestine, 1800–1914: Studies in Economic and Social History, Gad G. Gilbar, Brill Archive, 1990
  2. ↑ https://jerusaleminstitute.org.il/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/shnaton_C0922.pdf Jerusalem Institute
  3. ↑ 3,0 3,1 3,2 Final draft Шаблон:Dead link
  4. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  5. ↑ The Wiley Blackwell Companion to Ancient Israel
  6. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  7. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  8. ↑ Wilkinson, "Ancient Jerusalem, Its Water Supply and Population", PEFQS 106, pp. 33–51 (1974).
  9. ↑ Estimating the Population of Ancient Jerusalem, Magen Broshi, BAR 4:02, Jun 1978
  10. ↑ "According to Levine, because the new area encompassed by the Third Wall was not densely populated, assuming that it contained half the population of the rest of the city, there were between 60,000 and 70,000 people living in Jerusalem.", Rocca, "Herod's Judaea: A Mediterranean State in the Classical World", p. 333 (2008). Mohr Siebeck.
  11. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  12. ↑ Antiquities of the Jews, 17.42
  13. ↑ Cousland, "The Crowds in the Gospel of Matthew", p. 60 (2002). Brill.
  14. ↑ Шаблон:Cite journal
  15. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  16. ↑ Avraham Yaari, Igrot Eretz Yisrael, p. 98.(Tel Aviv, 1943)
  17. ↑ 17,0 17,1 17,2 17,3 Шаблон:Cite book The registers give counts of tax-paying households, bachelors, religious men, and disabled men. These figures show the estimated total population, following Cohen and Lewis by taking 6 as the average household size, which they call "conjectural" and note that other scholars have suggested averages between 5 and 7.
  18. ↑ [1] Шаблон:Webarchive
  19. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  20. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  21. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  22. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  23. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  24. ↑ 24,00 24,01 24,02 24,03 24,04 24,05 24,06 24,07 24,08 24,09 24,10 24,11 24,12 24,13 Шаблон:Cite book
  25. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  26. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  27. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  28. ↑ Fisk and King, 'Description of Jerusalem,' in The Christian Magazine, July 1824, page 220. Mendon Association, 1824. (The figures are preceded by the comment "the following estimate seems to us as probably correct as any one we have heard". The authors also note that, "some think the Jews more numerous than the Mussulmans.")
  29. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  30. ↑ Jerusalem Illustrated History Altas, Martin Gilbert, Jerusalem 1830–1850, p.37
  31. ↑ Sephardi entrepreneurs in Jerusalem: the Valero family 1800–1948 By Joseph B. Glass, Ruth Kark. p.174
  32. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  33. ↑ 33,0 33,1 Шаблон:Cite book
  34. ↑ Edward Robinson, Biblical Researches in Palestine, Mount Sinai and Arabia Petraea: a journal of travels in the year 1838, Volume 2, 1841, page 85
  35. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  36. ↑ A Descriptive and Historical Sketch of Palestine, 1850, p.273, originally published in Hebrew in 1845 as Tebu'ot ha-Areẓ
  37. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  38. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  39. ↑ Wolff, Press, "The Jewish Yishuv", pp 427-433, as quotes in Kark and Oren-Nordheim
  40. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  41. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  42. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  43. ↑ Mark Twain, Chapter 52, Innocents Abroad
  44. ↑ Ellen Clare Miller, Eastern Sketches – notes of scenery, schools and tent life in Syria and Palestine. Edinburgh: William Oliphant and Company. 1871. Page 126: 'It is difficult to obtain a correct estimate of the number of inhabitants of Jerusalem...'
  45. ↑ The New York Times, February 19, 1869 [2]; See also I. Harold Scharfman, The First Rabbi, Pangloss Press, 1988, page 524 which reports the figure as 3,100.
  46. ↑ Burns, Jabez. Help-Book for Travelers to The East. 1870. Page 75
  47. ↑ Hebrew Christian Mutual Aid Society. Almanack of 1869
  48. ↑ Parliamentary Papers, House of Commons and Command (1874), page 992
  49. ↑ Die heilige Stadt und deren Bewohner in ihren naturhistorischen, culturgeschichtlichen, socialen und medicinischen Verhältnissen. Published by Der Verfasser, page 216; 512 pages
  50. ↑ 50,0 50,1 Survey of Western Palestine, Volume III: Judea, page 163
  51. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  52. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  53. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  54. ↑ Шаблон:Cite news
  55. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  56. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  57. ↑ Review Of Reviews. Volume IX. Jan–Jun, 1894. Albert Shaw, Editor. Page 98. "The present population of Jerusalem is not far from forty thousand, and more than half are Jews."
  58. ↑ Шаблон:Cite book
  59. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  60. ↑ 60,00 60,01 60,02 60,03 60,04 60,05 60,06 60,07 60,08 60,09 60,10 Шаблон:Cite web
  61. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  62. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
  63. ↑ Шаблон:Cite web
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