Английская Википедия:Effects of the Israel–Hamas war
Шаблон:Short description Шаблон:Pp-extended
Шаблон:Campaignbox 2023 Israel–Hamas war
The outbreak of the Israel–Hamas war led to an increased dislike of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the government from Israeli citizens due to a perceived failure of leadership on the issue,[1] with increased calls for Netanyahu's resignation.[2]
Global attention on Hamas had implications for countries like Turkey and Qatar, which have strong ties with Hamas, and the United States was actively working with Qatar to secure the release of hostages.[3]
Hamas's actions had a significant impact on diplomatic efforts, potentially derailing a US-brokered deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The New York Times noted that the prospects of Israeli and Saudi normalization seemed less likely due to concerns about the situation's escalation and Palestinian rights. Additionally, there were speculations that Iran might have been trying to disrupt relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.[4] On 14 October, Saudi Arabia suspended talks on the possible normalization of relations with Israel.[5]
Various leaders and experts speculated about the potential for the conflict to expand, and even lead to a war between Israel and Iran, with Iranian officials expressing a willingness to intervene if Israel continues military operations or launches a ground invasion against Gaza, further indicating the possibility of region-wide escalation of the conflict.[6]
Ukraine expressed concerns that Russia might exploit the Israel–Hamas war to diminish international support for Ukraine, while Russia portrayed it as a Western policy failure. Russian president Vladimir Putin characterized the conflict as an example of the failure of United States policy in the Middle East and suggested it would affect Western support for Ukraine, potentially impacting Russia's relations with Israel.[7]
The United States launched new sanctions to try and cut off Iranian network funding Hamas.[8]
Since the beginning of the war, Islamophobic incidents have been reported on the rise in the West, while antisemitic attacks have exponentially increased worldwide.[9][10][11]
Background
The initial attacks by Hamas in the Israel–Hamas war marked a notable escalation in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, standing out for the scale and reach of both rocket fire and incursions within Israel from the Gaza border. This was a significant departure from prior conflicts, which typically followed a phased progression with a gradual escalation of tensions.[12] It has been compared to the 1941 Attack on Pearl Harbor,[13] the 1968 Tet Offensive, 1973 Yom Kippur War, the 2001 September 11 attacks,[14] and the 2003 Ramadan Offensive.[15][16][17] Like the Tet Offensive, Hamas's attack came on the morning of a holiday, seemed to be "everywhere at once", and demonstrated capabilities not thought possible by a guerrilla force.[18]
Domestic impacts
Palestinian factions
According to Daniel Byman and Alexander Palmer, the attack showcased the decline of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the rise of Hamas as a power center in Palestinian politics. They predicted the PLO's further decline if the status quo held.[19] Laith Alajlouni wrote that the immediate effect of the Hamas offensive was to unite Hamas and PLO. However, it may soon lead to conflict between them, possibly leading the PLO losing control of the security situation in the West Bank, if more militant groups there begin to launch their own independent attacks.[20]
With global attention on Hamas, Emile Hokayem wrote that Turkey and Qatar, which have privileged relations with Hamas, may be accused of overly indulging Hamas and being tarnished by association.[20] However, on 13 October, Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated in a joint press conference with Qatari Prime Minister and foreign minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani that the US was "working intensively" with the Gulf state in order to secure the hostages and expressed his gratitude "for the urgency that Qatar is bringing to this effort."[21][22][23]
By January 2024, the Palestinian Authority faced a severe political and economic crisis, after the Israeli government ended transferring tax revenue to the West Bank.[24] Israel usually collects Palestinian taxes and then gives it to the PA.[25]
Disease outbreak
On 16 October, doctors warned of an impending disease outbreak because of hospital overcrowding and also due to unburied bodies.[26] According to World Health Organization, there were solely "24 hours of water, electricity and fuel left" before "a real catastrophe."[27] On 18 October, the United States vetoed a UN resolution urging humanitarian aid to Gaza.[28] The WHO mentioned the condition in Gaza to be "spiralling out of control."[29]
The situation of humanitarian in Palestine (Gaza) is considered a "crisis" and a "catastrophe." As a result of Israel's siege, the mentioned city faces shortages of the items such as medication, food, fuel, water, and medical-related supplies.[30] UN Humanitarian Aid chief Martin Griffiths said, "the noose around the civilian population in Gaza is tightening."[31] On 13 October, UNRWA commissioner Philippe Lazzarini said, "The scale and speed of the unfolding humanitarian crisis is bone-chilling."[32][30][26]
Across Gaza, hospitals and clinics have been damaged/destroyed due to the Israel-Hamas war. Insecurity Insight recorded 345 incidents of violence against healthcare during the first seven weeks of the conflict. ongoing border closures will prevent patients from traveling to Israel, the West Bank or East Jerusalem for treatment. On top of this, a lack of fuel for water desalination has left 95% of Gaza’s population without access to safe water, increasing the risk of diseases like cholera.[33]
Effects on sport
By December 2023, at least 85 Palestinian athletes, 55 of them footballers, were killed in Israeli attacks, of whom 18 were children and 37 teenagers. In addition, the Palestinian Football Association counts 24 managers and technical staff who have been killed. Hani Al-Masry, a former footballer and CEO of the Palestinian National Olympic Team, was among the victims.[34][35] Israeli forces killed 23-year-old football player Ahmed Daraghmeh in the West Bank.[36][37] The famous Arabic football website Kooora introduced him as the best scorer of this team with 6 goals this season.[38] Israel also killed Hani al-Masdar, the coach of the Palestinian Olympic soccer team, who was known as Abu Abad in Palestine.[36]
Netanyahu government
Amit Segal, chief political commentator for Israel's Channel 12, said that the conflict would test Benjamin Netanyahu's survival as prime minister, noting that past wars had toppled the governments of several of his predecessors such as that of Golda Meir following the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Menachem Begin following the 1982 Lebanon War, and Ehud Olmert following the 2006 Lebanon War.[39] Prior to the formation of an emergency unity government on 11 October, Politico described the then-potential move as Netanyahu's opportunity to correct his course and save his political legacy.[40] Citing the Israeli intelligence failure, which some observers attributed to the incumbent government focusing more on internal dissent, the judicial reform, and efforts to deepen Israel's occupation of the Palestinian territories,[41] some commentators criticized Netanyahu for putting aside the PLO and propping up Hamas,[42] and described him as a liability.[43][44]
Political journalist Peter Beaumont described the attack as "an intelligence failure for the ages" on the part of the Israeli government.[45] The Jewish News Syndicate deemed it a "failure of imagination".[46] A BBC report on the intelligence failure noted that "it must have taken extraordinary levels of operational security by Hamas."[47] US officials expressed shock at how Israeli intelligence appeared to be unaware of any preparations by Hamas.[48] Israeli officials later anonymously reported to Axios that the IDF and Shin Bet had detected abnormal movements by Hamas the day before the attack, but decided to wait for additional intelligence before raising the military's alert level. They also did not inform political leaders of the intelligence reports.[49]
Sources in Hamas and Israel's military establishment told Reuters the attack was the culmination of a years-long campaign by Hamas to deceive Israel into thinking that the group was primarily interested in economic and governance issues instead of fighting.[50] An IDF colonel anonymously told Middle East Eye that intelligence units had detected Hamas training activities but misjudged their intent; they assessed these would be used in a series of separate attacks, rather than a large combined one.[51]
Amir Avivi, former deputy commander of the IDF's Gaza Division, told the Financial Times it was "a failure that is no smaller than the Yom Kippur War."[52] Yaakov Amidror, a former National Security Advisor to Netanyahu, said the attack proved their intelligence abilities in Gaza "were no good". An unnamed Egyptian intelligence official told the Associated Press that "[Egypt] warned them an explosion of the situation is coming, and very soon, and it would be big. But they underestimated such warnings."[53] This story was corroborated by Michael McCaul, Chairman of the US House Foreign Relations Committee, who said the warnings were made three days before the attack.[54]
On 11 October, Ynet reported that Egypt's Director of the General Intelligence Directorate, Abbas Kamel, made a personal phone call to Netanyahu ten days before the initial attack warning that individuals in Gaza were expected to do "something unusual, a terrible operation."[55] Former MI6 chief Sir Alex Younger voiced his opinion that Hamas fighters were able to carry out their attack due to "institutional complacency" in Israel.[56] Netanyahu described the reports as "absolutely false" and "fake news".[56][55]
The outbreak of war led to increased dislike of Netanyahu and the government from Israeli citizens due to a perceived failure of leadership on the issue,[57] with increased calls for Netanyahu's resignation.[58] A poll showed that 56% of Israelis believed that Netanyahu must resign after the conflict, with 86% of respondents holding the country's leadership responsible for the security failings that led to the surprise attack.[57][59] By 14 November, a poll by Bar Ilan University estimated that less than 4% of Jewish Israelis trusted Netanyahu to give accurate information about the war.[60] As of 12 October, Netanyahu had failed to apologize or take responsibility for his government's failure.[61][62]
Netanyahu's government came under scrutiny, with Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi stating, "The Israeli prime minister might be consciously provoking confrontations on other fronts, particularly with Lebanon and other parts of the region, to delay the political reckoning that he will have to face".[63]
Effects on children
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Children were disproportionately impacted by Israel's attack on Gaza.[64] On 13 November, UNICEF stated more than 700,000 children in Gaza were displaced.[65] The Palestine Red Crescent Society stated displaced children were suffering, due to power outages, lack of basic essentials, and "scenes of pain and fear."[66] Catherine M. Russell, the executive director of UNICEF, toured Gaza on 15 November, stating many children were buried under rubble and lacking medical care.[67]
Dr. Ahmed al-Fara, the head of pediatrics at Nasser Medical Complex in Khan Younis, stated due to the lack of clean water, he was witnessing the "most serious epidemic of gastroenteritis" among children he had ever seen.[68] UNICEF spokesperson Toby Fricker stated, "There is no safe place for children anywhere across the strip right now."[69] Save the Children reported serious signs of mental health issues among children in Gaza.[70]
Diplomatic impact
The Israel–Hamas war sparked a major diplomatic crisis, with many countries around the world reacting strongly to the conflict that affected the momentum of regional relations.[71] At least nine countries took the drastic step of recalling their ambassadors and cutting diplomatic ties with Israel.[72][73]
In an interview with the Financial Times, former-Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley stated Israel was paying an "enormous" strategic cost for the war with its loss of international support.[74] Thomas Friedman, writing in a New York Times op-ed, wrote, "I am seeing the increasingly rapid erosion of Israel’s standing among friendly nations".[75]
Severance and recall of diplomatic relations
A number of countries have recalled their ambassadors to Israel or severed ties altogether; among: Jordan, Bahrain, Turkey, Colombia, Honduras, Chile, Belize, South Africa and Chad. The measures were taken in response to Israel's conflict with Hamas, citing humanitarian concerns about the escalating conflict.[76][77][78][79]
Brazil
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva criticized Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip[80] calling it "the insanity" of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.[81]
Bolivia
On the afternoon of Israel's 31 October airstrike on the Jabalia refugee camp, Bolivia severed all diplomatic ties with Israel,[82][83] attributing its decision to alleged war crimes and human rights violations in the Gaza Strip.[84]
Jordan
Jordan, a major U.S. ally in the Middle East, recalled its ambassador on 1 November, as an "expression of Jordan’s position of rejection and condemnation of the raging Israeli war on Gaza, which is killing innocent people and causing an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe."[85] Likewise, Jordan added that the ambassador of Israel who had departed Amman (the capital city) following Hamas' attack, won't be permitted to return.[86][87]
In November 2023, the prime minister of Jordan said that Jordan was considering all available options in its response to the Israeli aggression on Gaza and its subsequent consequences.[86][87] He argued that Israel's blockade of the heavily-populated Gaza Strip could not be justified as self-defense, and criticised the indiscriminate Israeli assault, which had included safe zones and ambulances in its targets.[86][87]
Bahrain
Bahrain's National Assembly suspended diplomatic and economic relations on 2 November,[88] citing a "solid and historical stance that supports the Palestinian cause and the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people."[89][90] Israel said they had no prior knowledge of the decision.[91]
Turkey
Turkey recalled its ambassador to Israel over the humanitarian crisis caused by Israel's continued attacks on civilians in Gaza on 4 November.[92] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has announced that he is cutting off all contact with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.[93]
Malaysia
Malaysia has expressed its concern regarding the recent escalation in the Middle East through a statement issued by the Foreign Ministry. The statement attributes the root cause of the situation to the prolonged illegal occupation, blockade, sufferings, desecration of Al-Aqsa, and the politics of dispossession by Israel as the occupier. Malaysia calls for a return to the pre-1967 border and urges the United Nations Security Council to demand an end to the violence while emphasizing the importance of respecting and protecting the lives of innocent civilians. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, despite alleged pressure from Western nations, has chosen not to condemn Hamas, highlighting the longstanding relationship between Malaysia and the group. Furthermore, Malaysia voted against condemning Hamas at the United Nations. In a recent development, Malaysia has announced a ban on Israeli-owned and Israeli-flagged ships, as well as those headed for Israel, from docking at Malaysian ports.[94][95]
Other countries
Several South American countries filed diplomatic protests against Israel in response to the conflict with Hamas.
Economic impacts
Global economy
The conflict has the potential to plunge the global economy into recession.[96] War could have significant repercussions on Europe’s economic landscape, impacting it through reduced regional commerce, stricter financial regulations, escalated energy costs, and diminished consumer assurance. Goldman Sachs underscored that the most crucial and potentially impactful method that strain could permeate the European economy was via the petroleum and natural gas markets.[97]
The World Bank warned that the price of oil could rise to $150 a barrel if the war spreads beyond the Gaza Strip to other countries in the oil-rich region.[98] In a recent report, the World Bank issued a concerning warning on October 30 regarding the Israel-Gaza conflict. They stated that this conflict has the potential to cause a significant global economic shock. One of the potential consequences could be a drastic increase in oil prices, with projections suggesting that it could reach as high as one hundred and fifty dollars per barrel. This would have severe implications for the global economy, leading to higher food prices and potentially causing millions of people to go hungry. The report draws parallels to the 1973 war, during which Arab members of OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, imposed an oil embargo on the United States in response to their support for Israel.[99]
Israel
Israel's treasury minister said the daily direct cost of the Gaza war to her country is about $246 million.[100]
It has been estimated that if the war went on for eight to twelve months, the cost of the war to the Israeli economy would be more than $50bn, or close to 10% of GDP, according to Calcalist, citing early Ministry of Finance figures. The estimates assume the conflict is limited to Gaza, without further escalation with other parties, and relies on the 350,000 drafted reservists returning to work soon.[101]
Palestine
Nasri Abu Jaish, the Palestinian Minister of Labor, stated unemployment in Gaza had risen from 47 percent up to 90 percent, while unemployment in the West Bank was at 25 percent.[102] The UN Conference on Trade and Development reported a 24 percent contraction in gross domestic product in Gaza, with pre-war GDP levels not estimated to be restored until 2092, concluding, "The main takeaway from the report is that the level of destruction that we’re witnessing in Gaza is unprecedented."[103] The conference stated it would take billions of dollars and decades to rebuild Gaza.[104] In February 2024, Kristalina Georgieva, the chief of the International Monetary Fund, stated the war had decimated the economies of the West Bank and Gaza.[105] The chair of UNCTAD stated Gaza would need its own Marshall Plan to rebuild, which could cost up to $50 billion USD.[106]
Egypt
Egypt, a nation grappling with a vulnerable economy, confronts further obstacles as a result of the ongoing conflict near the Gaza Strip. This confrontation possesses the capacity to disrupt the tourism sector and impede the importation of natural gas, thereby placing strain on Egypt's economy. The war in Palestine (Gaza), unfolding along Egypt's border with the Sinai Peninsula, coincides with Russia's aggression towards Ukraine and the global impact of the coronavirus pandemic, both of which have laid bare the vulnerabilities of Egypt's economy.[107]
China
China gets half its oil imports from the Persian Gulf, but this country is struggling currently with a collapse in the real estate market and it is encountering its weakest growth in approximately 3 decades.[108]
Lebanon
The olive trade in southern Lebanon, which is the main source of income for many, was halted as farmers stopped their harvests in fear of the active shelling.[109][110] According to the Agriculture Minister Abbas Hajj Hassan, 40,000 olive trees were burned down by fires caused by IDF shelling.[111]
The Institute of International Finance predicted that Lebanon's GDP could decline by one percent by the end of the year and by 30 percent in 2024 in the event of further spillover of the war.[112]
Boycott of Western companies
People in some Muslim countries have boycotted Western businesses, especially American ones such as Starbucks, McDonald's and Coca-Cola, reflecting anger at Western governments' support for Israel.[113][114][115][116][117]
Campaigners in Derry, Northern Ireland persuaded O'Neills to remove Puma products because of the sports brand's sponsoring of the Israeli Football Association.[118] Starbucks was targeted in Keighley, West Yorkshire, with protesters smashing the shop's windows, following the corporation's decision to sue the Starbuck Workers United union after the labour organisation posted on social media support for Palestine.[119]
Direct action was taken at arms factories in the United States and the United Kingdom that supplied arms to Israel, such as Lockheed Martin,[120][121] General Dynamics,[122] Textron,[123] Boeing,[124] Raytheon Technologies and Northrop Grumman.[125] For instance, on 10 November 2023, trade unionists in Rochester, Kent, blocked the entrances to a BAE Systems factory, stating the facility manufactured military aircraft components used to bomb Gaza;[126] and on 16 November, Palestine Action occupied a Leonardo factory in Southampton, stopping production.[127] ZIM was barred from entering ports in Malaysia.[128]
Military impact
Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, speculated the war would spread to Jerusalem and the West Bank.[129] Hashim Safi Al Din, Head of Hezbollah's Executive Council, threatened to join the conflict.[130] Max Abrahms, a political scientist at Northeastern University, opined that the conflict could escalate into a war between Israel and Iran.[131] During a meeting with UN diplomat Tor Wennesland on 14 October, Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian asserted that Iran will intervene in the war if Israel continues its military operations or launches a ground invasion against Gaza.[132]
On 16 October, Iran threatened "pre-emptive" attacks against Israel, indicating further region-wide escalation of the war. Iranian foreign minister stated: "The possibility of pre-emptive action by the resistance front is expected in the coming hours... All options are open and we cannot be indifferent to the war crimes committed against the people of Gaza."[133][6]
The conflict between Israel and Hamas is having repercussions in Europe, with an increase in threats and physical assaults against minority communities throughout the continent. Additionally, it is believed that the recent terrorist attack in Paris was partially motivated by the situation in Gaza. [134]
International relations
Israeli–Saudi Arabian normalization
In an analysis by The Times of Israel, the newspaper wrote that "Hamas has violently shifted the world's eyes back to the Palestinians and dealt a severe blow to the momentum for securing a landmark US-brokered deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia."[135] The New York Times reported that the prospects of Israeli and Saudi normalization appeared dimmer, citing Saudi Arabia's statement that the country had repeatedly warned "of the dangers of the explosion of the situation as a result of the continued occupation, the deprivation of the Palestinian people and their legitimate rights and the repetition of systemic provocations against its sanctities."[136][137]
Andreas Kluth wrote in his Bloomberg News column that Hamas "torched Biden's deal to remake the Middle East", arguing that the deal that was being discussed between Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United States would have left Palestinians in the cold, so the group decided to "blow the whole thing up." He added that, viewed from Gaza, things were only going to get worse, considering that Netanyahu's coalition partners opposed a two-state solution for the conflict. He suggested they would prefer to annex the entirety of the West Bank, even at the expense of turning Israel into an apartheid state, something critics have long claimed as Israel's goal.[138]
Speculation arose that Iran was trying to sabotage relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia,[139] with former head of research for Shin Bet Neomi Neumann saying the attack could have been timed in part due to Iran's hopes to scuttle efforts to normalize relations between Israel and its Sunni rival.[140] On 9 October, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani denied claims of Tehran's involvement in Hamas's attack.[141] On 12 October, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed the Israel-Gaza situation with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.[142] On 13 October, Saudi Arabia criticized Israel for the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza and the attacks on "defenceless civilians". On 14 October, Saudi Arabia suspended talks on the possible normalization of relations with Israel. On October 27, Saudi Arabia warned the United States that an invasion of Gaza by Israel would be "catastrophic for the Middle East"[143] On 21 January 2024, Saudi FM Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud stated there would be no normalization deal without a path to a Palestinian state.[144] On 28 February, Israeli cabinet minister Eli Cohen stated there would be no normalization deal if it meant the creation of a Palestinian state.[145]
Recognition of the State of Palestine
Шаблон:Main Шаблон:Further In response to the conflict, Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares stated Spain was in favor of recognizing the State of Palestine within a short-term timeframe.[146] Belgium’s Minister of Development Cooperation Caroline Gennez stated Belgium was also considering recognizing the state of Palestine.[147] On 19 January, Netanyahu stated there was no post-war scenario that would lead to a Palestinian state.[148] In response, UK opposition leader Keir Starmer stated, "Palestinian statehood is not in the gift of a neighbour. It is the inalienable right of the Palestinian people."[149] On 21 January, Netanyahu stated, "I will not compromise on full Israeli security control over the entire area in the west of Jordan – and this is contrary to a Palestinian state."[150] The French foreign minister stated France would "remain faithful" to the creation of a Palestinian state.[151] António Guterres stated, "The right of the Palestinian people to build their own state must be recognised by all".[152] The EU reportedly sought to impose "consequences" on Israel for its opposition to Palestinian statehood.[153]
The Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud stated on 22 January 2024 there would be no normalization deal with Israel until there was a realistic path toward a Palestinian state.[154] Ayman Safadi stated Israel is "defying the whole international community and it is about time the world took a stand."[155] Josep Borrell and Annalena Baerbock stated they were working toward a two-state solution, calling it the "only solution".[156] Separately, Borrell stated two days later, "From now on I will not talk about the peace process, but I want a two-state-solution process".[157] Malaysian foreign minister Mohamad Hasan announced he would introduce a UN resolution to admit Palestine as a full member state.[158] On 30 January, David Cameron stated the UK and its allies were laying out plans for "recognising a Palestinian state".[159]
Lana Zaki Nusseibeh, the UN representative of the United Arab Emirates, stated, "We cannot keep managing this conflict, we have to resolve it which means two states... There must be an irreversible progression towards a two-state solution."[160] Gershon Baskin, a former Israeli peace negotiator, stated, "Let’s face it, 139 countries have already recognised Palestine. But the rich countries have not, and it’s time they do it."[161] Azali Assoumani, the chair of the African Union, stated the Palestinian people have the right to their own state with East Jerusalem as its capital.[162]
War crimes, genocide, and lawsuits
Шаблон:Main Шаблон:See also Both Israel and Hamas were accused by international organizations and governments of committing war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity. South Africa brought Israel to the International Court of Justice on charges of intent to commit genocide. Analysts, such as Al Jazeera senior political analyst Marwan Bishara, commented that the impact of such lawsuits on international relations would be limited, stating, "The International Court of Justice might come up with some ruling, but will this ruling ever be implemented in the presence of the United States and the United Kingdom?"[163]
Russo-Ukrainian War
Ukraine asserted that Russia would attempt to exploit the Israel–Hamas war conflict to reduce international support for Ukraine, while Russia called it a Western policy failure.[164] Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of seeking to precipitate conflict in the Middle East to "undermine world unity, increase discord and contradictions, and thus help Russia destroy freedom in Europe."[165][166]
Russian president Vladimir Putin declared the war "a clear example of the failure of United States policy in the Middle East", adding that Washington had consistently failed to take into account the fundamental interests of Palestinians. Russian commentators characterized the war as a military and intelligence failure of the West, predicting it would sap Western support for Ukraine. The New York Times stated that Russia's relations with Israel were deteriorating, driven in part by Western support for Ukraine and Iran's continued support for Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War.[167] Palestinian-Ukrainians reported feeling a "double standard" as the Zelensky government supported Israel.[168] Bloomberg columnist Andreas Kluth wrote that some Trump-supporting Republican legislators supported aid for Israel but opposed it for Ukraine.[169] Politico wrote that it was a foregone conclusion that the war would divert US attention from Ukraine.[170]
Impact on US–Iran relations
Шаблон:Main The war between Israel and Hamas has deepened the struggle between the US and Iran for influence in the Middle East. Iran's long-term strategy involves destroying Israel and driving a wedge between Israel and its regional neighbors. Despite tensions and anger across the region, the Biden administration's efforts to contain Iran and prevent a wider war are in line with the priorities of most Arab governments.[171]
Global South
Some analysts described the Israel-Gaza war as exposing a rift between the Western World and the Global South.[172] Alex Lo, a columnist at the South China Morning Post wrote, "When Israel’s crimes against the Palestinians are written, future historians will not be able to say the world did nothing... It has been trying to do its basic duty to humanity. But the West, led by the US, has been thwarting them at every turn."[173] Sami Abu Shehadeh, a former Palestinian Knesset member, criticized Western countries for cutting off funding for UNRWA following allegations against twelve of its employees, but not for sanctioning Israeli politicians for advocating for ethnic cleansing, stating, "Does anyone have any doubts why the US, UK, Australia, Canada and Germany are seen as part of the problem for the Global South?"[174] The South Africa v. Israel case was reportedly seen in the Global South as a "test of the credibility" of the international system.[175]
Arms transfers
As a result of the war, Western arms transfers came under increasing public scrutiny. After the International Court of Justice found in South Africa v. Israel that Israel was plausibly committing genocide in Gaza, organizations such as Democracy for the Arab World Now stated, "The US can’t and should not continue its arms transfers with Israel now."[176] An additional sixteen humanitarian organizations — including Oxfam, Save the Children, Norwegian Refugee Council, and Amnesty International — called for an end to arms transfers to Israel.[177] Following comments by U.S. president Joe Biden that Israel's actions in Gaza were "over the top", EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell stated, "If you believe that too many people are being killed, maybe you should provide less arms".[178] On 29 February, in reaction to the Al-Rashid massacre, Colombian President Gustavo Petro announced Colombia was suspending all arms purchases from Israel.[179]
Evacuations of foreign nationals
Шаблон:Main Hungary evacuated 215 of its nationals from Israel using two aircraft on 9 October, while Romania evacuated 245 of its citizens, including two pilgrimage groups, on two TAROM planes and two private aircraft on the same day.[180] Australia also announced repatriation flights.[181] 300 Nigerian pilgrims in Israel fled to Jordan before being airlifted home.[182]
India launched Operation Ajay in order to evacuate its citizens from Israel.[183]
On 12 October, the United Kingdom arranged flights for its citizens in Israel; the first plane departed Ben-Gurion Airport that day. The government had said before that it would not be evacuating its nationals due to available commercial flights. However, the flights were commercial.[184]
International politics
British politics
As a result of the conflict, British politics has been affected. Labour MP Andy McDonald had the whip suspended after he made a speech at a pro-Palestinian rally.[185] He later sued Conservative MP Chris Clarkson over his response to his comments.[186]
In October 2023, Conservative MP Paul Bristow wrote a letter urging Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to support a "permanent ceasefire" in the 2023 Israel–Hamas war for humanitarian reasons. In further comments on his Facebook page, he said Palestinians "should not suffer collective punishment for the crimes of Hamas." Bristow co-chairs the all-party parliamentary group on British Muslims. He was fired as Parliamentary Private Secretary at the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology for his comments as they diverged from the government's position and "not consistent with the principles of collective responsibility". Bristow was the first Conservative MP to diverge.[187]
Dozens of Labour Party councillors resigned due to Leader of the Labour Party Keir Starmer's decision not to push for a ceasefire in the 2023 Israel–Hamas war.[188] Oxford City Council became under no overall control.[189] By 25 October, 31 councillors had resigned from the party.[190] All 18 Labour members of Slough Borough Council publicly defied Starmer calling for a ceasefire.[191]
The relatives of First Minister of Scotland Humza Yousaf and Liberal Democrat MP Layla Moran were stranded in the Gaza Strip.[192][193]
On 8 November 2023, Imran Hussain resigned as Shadow Minister because of Keir Starmer's refusal to call for a ceasefire.[194] Hussain said he wanted to be a "strong advocate for the humanitarian ceasefire", but could not do that as a frontbencher "given its current position".[195]
On 15 November 2023, Keir Starmer suffered his largest defeat as leader when 56 of his MPs defied a three-line whip to vote for a SNP motion to support a ceasefire in Gaza.[196] This included 10 frontbenchers; Jess Phillips, Naz Shah, Afzal Khan, Yasmin Qureshi, Sarah Owen, Rachel Hopkins, Andy Slaughter, Paula Barker, Mary Foy and Dan Carden.[197]
A group of humanitarian organizations, including Christian Aid, Global Justice Now, Oxfam, and War on Want, stated the UK government was complicit in the "slaughter of innocent civilians taking place every day in Gaza" until it ceased sending weapons to Israel.[198]
In February 2024, four Labour councillors were suspended amid a Green Party motion on the Gaza War which called on council leader Claire Holland to write to the Prime Minister and leader of the opposition to call for “an immediate, negotiated ceasefire by all parties”.[199] Three of the councillors, Martin Abrams, Deepak Sardiwal and Sonia Winifred voted for the motion, while a fourth, Sarina da Silva, abstained.[200] It was reported that Abrams, a Jewish councillor for Streatham St Leonard’s ward, was given an indefinite suspension.[201]
In the March 2024 Rochdale by-election George Galloway was elected. The Israel–Hamas war dominated the campaign. In his election speech, Galloway said “Keir Starmer, this is for Gaza. You will pay a high price for the role that you have played in enabling, encouraging and covering for the catastrophe presently going on in occupied Gaza, in the Gaza Strip".[202][203][204] The Labour candidate Azhar Ali had been dis-endorsed for comments he made, and later the former MP Graham Jones was also disciplined.[205]
European politics
Marc Botenga, a Belgian member of the European Parliament, stated the upcoming elections would play a role in the way in which European leaders conducted the war, stating, "The European governments guarantee impunity to Israel, and people out there in the streets are outraged about this".[206] Speaking to Spanish newspaper El País, top European diplomat Josep Borrell criticized Ursula von der Leyen's approach to the war, stating, "Von der Leyen’s trip, with such a completely pro-Israeli position, without representing anyone but herself in a matter of international politics, has carried a high geopolitical cost for Europe."[207]
Jordan politics
Шаблон:See also As a consequence of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the political landscape of Jordan has been impacted. Bisher al Khasawneh, the Prime Minister of Jordan, expressed his country's disapproval of Israel's offensive in Gaza by recalling its ambassador from Israel. Additionally, Jordan declared that Israel's ambassador, who had departed Amman following Hamas' attack, would not be permitted to return. Khasawneh emphasized that Jordan is considering all available options in its response to the Israeli aggression on Gaza and its subsequent consequences. It is noteworthy that Jordan and Israel had signed a peace treaty in 1994. Khasawneh argued that Israel's blockade of the heavily populated Gaza Strip cannot be justified as self-defense, contrary to their claims. He further emphasized that the indiscriminate Israeli assault does not differentiate between civilian and military objectives, even targeting safe zones and ambulances.[208][209]
Because of the war, support for Hamas has increased among the people of Jordan.[210]
U.S. politics
Шаблон:Main Шаблон:See also In response to the Biden administration's response to the war, Muslim and Arab American leaders from swing states began an #AbandonBiden campaign to ensure Biden was a one-term president.[211][212] The organization leaders indicated they would not support the likely Republican nominee Donald Trump, but vowed not to vote for Biden.[213] On December 30, 2023, the #AbandonBiden campaign announced they were expanding to all fifty states.[214] On 26 January 2024, Abdullah Hammoud, the mayor of Dearborn, Michigan, refused to meet the Biden campaign over the president's Gaza policy.[215] On 1 February 2024, Arab American voters protested against Biden campaigning in Michigan, with one voter stating, "Just as he abandoned us, we will be abandoning him on Election Day."[216]
A December 19 New York Times/Siena College poll found 57 percent of Americans disapproved of Joe Biden's handling of the conflict, with a plurality supporting Israel ending its military actions to protect civilians. Three quarters of 18-to-29 year olds disapproved of Biden's handling, with half saying Israel was intentionally killing civilians and three-fourths saying it was not taking enough precautions for civilians.[217] Harvard University political scientist Stephen Walt stated, "Biden looks heartless or clueless (or both) and many see him as no better than Trump".[218] Edward Luce, a Financial Times editorialist, wrote Joe Biden’s "seeming indifference to Palestinians could prove costly."[219] The New York Times reported that African American Christians were "so dismayed by the president’s posture toward the war that their support for his re-election bid could be imperiled."[220] Kimberly Halkett reported that the level of political opposition to the Gaza war hadn't been seen in the U.S. since the Vietnam War protests.[221]
In January 2024, following comments by Prime Minister Netanyahu stating that Israel would control the entirety of territory west of the Jordan River, Congressmembers Suzanne Bonamici and Don Beyer issued statements of condemnation.[222]
During the February 2024 Michigan Democratic presidential primary Despite Joe Biden winning in a landslide, "Uncommitted" posed a significant challenge to him in an otherwise generally uncontested primary season.[223] It was the first entity to win delegates outside of Biden, and won over 100,000 votes.[224] The campaign's success was attributed to Arab, Muslim, young and progressive voters protesting Biden over his handling of the Israel–Hamas war.[225]
Brazilian politics
Шаблон:See also On October 18, Brazil dispatched a plane to Egypt carrying water purifiers to donate to Gaza, intending to evacuate Brazilians dual nationals from Gaza upon its return. The aircraft was scheduled to wait until Israel approved the departure of the Brazilian nationals.[226][227]
On November 1, the first list of about 500 foreigners allowed to leave Gaza was released.[228] As days passed, individuals of various nationalities but not Brazilians were permitted to leave Gaza. This led to suspicions among some Brazilians that Israel were doing a retaliation due to Brazil's role in the UN.[229][230]
The Israeli ambassador to Brazil, Daniel Zohar Zonshine, reassured there were no political reasons for the delayed authorization.[231]
On November 8, ambassador Zonshine remarked that Egypt was setting a daily quota for evacuations and attributed the delays to Hamas.[232]
Journalist Reinaldo Azevedo criticized this explanation, alleging that the list of evacuees was determined by Israel and that Brazilian nationals were being held as diplomatic hostages.[233][234]
On the same day, Brazilian Federal Police executed two temporary arrest warrants and eleven search warrants against a group suspected of preparing for terrorism. The operation sought evidence of possible recruitment of Brazilians for terrorist acts in Brazil linked to Hezbollah.[235] Ambassador Zonshine commented, "If they chose Brazil, it's because there are people helping them."[236] This statement elicited a strong and critical reaction from Brazilian authorities.[237][238]
On November 9, former president Jair Bolsonaro tweeted that the Workers' Party (PT), the party of the current president Lula, sympathies with Hamas.[239] That afternoon, Zonshine met with Brazilian deputies, showing videos from the events of October 7 and sitting next to Bolsonaro. This meeting generated significant negative repercussions.[239][240][241][242][243][244] Some deputies, like Lindbergh Farias of PT, even called for Zonshine's expulsion.[245][246]
On November 10, Brazilians were authorized to leave Gaza, but the border remained closed. On November 12, all of the 32 Brazilians who requested to be evacuated were able to leave Gaza through Egypt.[240][247] They were transported on the presidential aircraft VC-2. Upon their arrival in Brasilia on the night of November 13, they were welcomed by president Lula. During this reception, the president condemned Israel's response as inhumane.[248][249]
South and Central America
Several South American countries filed diplomatic protests against Israel in response to the conflict with Hamas. On the afternoon of Israel's 31 October airstrike on the Jabalia refugee camp, Bolivia severed all diplomatic ties with Israel,[250][251] attributing its decision to alleged war crimes and human rights violations in the Gaza Strip. Chile and Colombia also recalled their ambassadors.[84] Belize suspended diplomatic relations with Israel.[252]
The Honduran President Xiomara Castro announced the recall of its ambassador on 4 November, shortly after the country's Ministry of foreign affairs stated that "Honduras energetically condemns the genocide and serious violations of international humanitarian law that the civilian Palestinian population is suffering in the Gaza Strip".[85]
Media impact
Bin Laden's "Letter to the American people"
In November 2023, Bin Laden's "Letter to the American people", published in 2002, went viral on TikTok and other social media. In the letter, Bin Laden denounced numerous acts of American aggression such as U.S. support for Israel, and supported al-Qaeda's war against the U.S. as a defensive struggle. Numerous social media users, including Americans, expressed their opposition to US foreign policy by widely sharing the letter and its contents. The letter was removed from The Guardian website after more than 20 years of being present online in the news outlet's webpage, and TikTok began issuing takedowns of videos featuring the letter.[253][254][255] Reporting in The Washington Post suggested that the virality of the letter had been limited prior to media coverage, having never trended on TikTok, that many of the TikTok videos covering the letter were critical of bin Laden, and that the media coverage had exaggerated its significance and elevated the virality of the letter.[256]
See also
- Casualties of the 2023 Israel–Hamas war
- International reactions to the 2023 Israel–Hamas war
- Timeline of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict in 2023
- Outline of the 2023 Israel–Hamas war
- United States support for Israel in the 2023 Israel–Hamas war
- Diplomatic impact of the 2023 Israel–Hamas war
References
Шаблон:2023 Israel–Hamas war Шаблон:Portal bar
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