Английская Википедия:Future-oriented technology analysis
Материал из Онлайн справочника
Перейти к навигацииПерейти к поиску
Шаблон:Futures studies Шаблон:Other uses of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is a collective term from futures studies for analyzing future technology and its consequences.[1][2] It includes technology intelligence, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping, technology assessment, and technology foresight. Technology Futures Analysis or Technology Future Analysis (TFA) is a synonym.[1][3]
Future-oriented technology analysis shares common methods with horizon scanning.[4][5]
Definitions
| Year | Definition |
|---|---|
| 2004 | Technology futures analysis is "any process to produce judgments about emerging technology characteristics, development pathways, and potential impacts of a technology in the future. ... [TFA] encompasses the broad technology foresight and assessment studies of the public sector and the technology forecasting and intelligence studies in private industry."[6] |
| 2013 | Future-oriented technology analysis is "an umbrella term to denote several decision-preparatory tools - (technology) foresight, forecasting and technology assessment - and thus it is not a discipline with solid, widely accepted theoretical foundations."[7] |
Methods
| Method | Family |
|---|---|
| Agent based modeling | Modeling and simulation |
| Analytical hierarchy process | Valuing/decision/economic |
| Backcasting | Descriptive and matrices |
| Bibliometrics | Monitoring and intelligence, Statistics |
| Brainstorming | Creativity |
| Cross impact analysis | Modeling and simulation, Statistics |
| Delphi | Expert Opinion |
| Multicriteria decision analyses | Valuing/decision/economic |
| Relevance tree | Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic |
| Risk analysis | Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic |
| Roadmapping | Descriptive and matrices |
| Scenarios | Scenarios |
| Social impact assessment | Descriptive and matrices |
| Stakeholder analysis | Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic |
| Sustainability analysis | Descriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation |
| System dynamics | Modeling and simulation |
| Technology assessment | Descriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation |
| TRIZ | Creativity |
References
